Week of October 8, 2010

It's been a long week, so this will be a short post. Also, none of the movies opening this week have really peaked my interest.

Easily the most interesting movie this weekend is Secretariat (SCTRT). It would be a very cheesy movie if it weren't based on a true story. Even I remember Secretariat, and I know nothing about horses. I also like Diane Lane, and of course John Malkovich is always fun to watch. The stock tanked for a while, but it's back up. Strike price is H$15, with the call doing quite well, and the put barely above IPO. Critics mostly like it, with a 61% rating on RT. What you see is what you get with this one. Disney does these well.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Look, it's another Katherine Heigl romantic comedy! Sigh. I like Katherine Heigl, I think she's drop-dead gorgeous and funny, and very charming, but Life As We Know It (LAWKI) is dropping like a rock. This is about the worst possible time for me to be even thinking about a movie with this premise.

Stock: Short

Call: Long

Put: Short

Look, it's another Wes Craven movie about teenagers being terrorized! I managed to watch the trailer, and even I wasn't that scared. Sorry, Wes, not going on this ride.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Short

Update Friday morning: all 3 are down, but Secretariat is only down slightly, while the other 2 are down at least H$2. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: It wasn't a good weekend for me, but that's not surprising, since I didn't spend a lot of time on these predictions. Secretariat adjusted down, Life as We Know It adjusted up slightly, and - at least I got one right - My Soul To Take dropped, pulling in all of $7 million. Note: It's Kind Of A Funny Story also opened wide, I guess, but I didn't predict it, because I didn't think it was opening wide. It dropped like a rock, but it's getting some good reviews.

October 1, 2010: Case 39, Let Me In, The Social Network

We have three movies opening this weekend, two horror movies and a movie about Facebook.

Renee Zellweger stars in Case 39 (CAS39), a horror movie about a case worker whose 39th case is a little girl who isn't quite as innocent as she seems. The trailer scares me, but since that isn't hard to do, that isn't saying much. I haven't heard much about this movie, haven't seen any marketing, but the stock is skyrocketing like I haven't seen in a long time. It's up several hundred percent in the last couple of months. THAT'S interesting. It's at H$12 and change on Friday morning. There aren't even options, that's how depressed the stock was until recently. RT score is 23%. So it looks like the studio had an opportunity to release it, so they grabbed it, hoping to make some money. I have a feeling it's had a great run, but the hype is peaking.

Stock: Short

Let Me In (LTRON) is a remake of a Swedish vampire movie called Let The Right One In, which apparently was quite successful. Halloween is right around the corner! This is not doing quite so well, and the stock is tanking, down to H$31. Strike price is H$15, which seems optimistic today, and the call (LTMNCA) is H$1.35. Put is at H$3.43. Critics are quite enthusiastic, with an 83% rating on RT. Now that some hype has been wiped out from the stock price, I see more potential on the upside than the downside. But I'm not optimistic that it's going to make the strike price.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

Then there's this little movie called The Social Network (SOCIL), about some dweeb who decided that he wanted to help people make friends. Such a good idea! We all know and love Facebook, don't we? But how many of us will love the movie about it? Stock rose quite steadily to the low-H$90's - high H$80's, which is where it is parked now. Strike price is nicely priced at H$30, and the call (SOCICA) has lots of friends, and H$3.43, while the put (SOCIPU) does not have quite as many friends, but is not doing too badly, either, at H$2.91. We have mixed signals here. Except from the critics, who are almost universally enthusiastic, raving and giving it a 97% rating on RT. This has the potential to be the kind of movie that feel like they have to see to be part of the cultural conversation.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Well, it wasn't a great weekend, either at the box office, or here at TEQP-HSX. The Social Network didn't soar quite as I expected, only picking up H$23 million, and adjusting down H$18. Case 39, the one movie I didn't think was going to do well, actually did marginally better than expected, with $5 million in the bank, and actually adjusted up a bit, to H$14. From the numbers being reported now, it did better than the other horror movie opening this weekend, Let Me In, which had a lot more hype. That only did about $5.3, and it adjusted down quite a bit, from H$30, to H$14, i.e. by more than half. Thank goodness I got the options right on that one, or I would have gotten everything wrong this weekend. This a humbling experience pretty much every week.

September 24, 2010: Wall Street, You Again, Legends of the Guardians

We're out of the post-summer slump, but not quite in Oscar season, so we have some maybe-sorta quality movies. At least this isn't a dumping-ground weekend.

Gordon Gekko, star of Wall Street, is back, and Michael Douglas looks like he's having a heck of a good time. There are a couple of young people starring with him, Shia Labeouf and Carey Mulligan, presumably to make this movie more appealing to young people who are more familiar with them than Oliver Stone's late-80's movie. The hype around this movie was, of course, a bit much, and it has, appropriately, tanked in the last few weeks, down to H$68, from H$90. Strike price is dead on, at H$25. Call is doing quite well, at H$4 and change, while the put is tanking, down to H$1 and a half. But we have a problem here: movement on the options is strongly up, but momentum on the stock is down. Critics are mostly positive, with a 56% rating on RT. However, that's not quite a fresh rating. I'm not quite sure what the point is here, and if I am confused, it's a fair bet other people are, as well. Watching the trailer, I'm sensing a lot of drama, but I don't know where it's going. I'm going to wait to see if this is worth watching. I'm betting against the market, but that's where the real money is.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Rarely have I seen a stock tank as sharply as You Again (UAGAN). This is sad, because it's a mostly female cast, with some great actresses, including Sigourney Weaver and Jamie Lee Curtis. And the great Betty White. It went from H$52 to H$36 in a week. Wow, that's bad. Strike price was set at H$20, which made perfect sense a couple of weeks ago. Today, it's absurd. Call is below a buck, and the put is aiming at H$5. Critics are brutal, with a 17% rating. Calls are not hard on this one.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

One movie I wasn't anticipating, but showed up on my radar when I saw lots of posters for it at the mall, is Legends of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole. The title sounds faintly ridiculous to me, but apparently it's based on a famous children's book or books. The stock isn't doing all that well, down to H$52, from H$67. It looks terribly cliched to me. Also, how exactly are we supposed to tell owls apart? They don't have particularly expressive faces. But I'm sure there's lots of great aerial combat. I was also surprised that it's directed by Zack Snyder, who made 300. Strike price is H$20, which is dead on. Call is doing well, up H$3, while the put is below a buck. Critics are not very enthusiastic, with only a 50% rating on RT. Maybe I'm not in a good mood (which is entirely possible), but I'm betting against the market again. I just don't see the appeal.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Update Friday afternoon: It's past halt time, so this is irrelevant, except as a matter of record. I reversed position on Wall Street, because it was up H$4.50, which is a major move. I didn't have time to reverse positions on the options, which may be a bad mistake. I also have a feeling that there is more potential for loss on the upside than on the downside.

Update Sunday night: Well, damn. My original instinct on Wall Street was right: it opened at only $19 million, dropping H$20. But I was right about the other two, and I was right about the options for Wall Street, but only because I didn't have time to reverse positions. So I was right about 8 out of 9, but wrong about the biggest one. Which I was right about originally.

September 17, 2010: Easy A, The Town, Devil

I'm doing an abbreviated post today, and a day late, because I am dealing with some family stuff that requires my attention.

Easy A: Up recently, but down today. Great reviews, at 82% on RT. Strike price is H$15, and the call is doing well, while the put is below a buck.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

The Town: Same as Easy A: Up recently, down today. Even better reviews, at 92%. You go, Ben Affleck! Same strike price, although there is more of a disconnect between the options and the stock.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Devil: Down quite a bit recently, not a great sign. From M. Night Shyamalan, although he didn't direct it, and his brand isn't what it once was. Same strike price, but with opposite movement.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

Alpha and Omega is dropping off a cliff. Same strike price again, although it's completely ludicrous. Looks utterly cliched.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

Update Sunday afternoon: Not a bad weekend, considering my abbreviated post. Ben Affleck did quite well, with The Town very nicely exceeding expectations, with $23.8 million, adjusting up almost H$20. Easy A did well, but not quite as well as expected, with $18 million, adjusting down about H$5. At least it beat the strike price. Devil and Alpha and Omega didn't, although the cartoon did slightly better than expected, and adjusted up a smidgen. That means that I got almost everything - 10 out of 12 - right.

September 10, 2010: Resident Evil

There's only one movie opening wide this weekend, and I don't have a lot of interest in it. Milla Jovovich continues her run of battling zombies etc. in Resident Evil: Afterlife, in 3D. Stock (RESE4) is doing well, up to H$64, just off the high of H$65. Strike price is H$25, or a stock price of about H$67. Call is doing particularly well, at H$4 and a half. That suggests an opening weekend of about $30 million, or a price of about H$80. That's a bit of a disjunction with the stock. Put is tanking, as expected, down to H$1 and change. I'm sure it's going out on a ridiculously wide release for a B movie, since it has the field to itself. It's also that rarest of creatures, an action-adventure franchise with a female heroine. There are only 3 reviews on rottentomatoes.com, which usually means that it was not screened for critics, which would be utterly unsurprising. I think the call is overpriced, but it looks like this franchise is not running out of steam. The fact that there are no other movies being released this weekend suggests that the other studios want to give this movie some leeway.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

Update Sunday night: Nailed it, which wasn't hard, but it feels good. It opened at $27.7 million, which was very close to the stock price. Not really much of a surprise, since this was a very known quantity. I was betting on it hitting the sweet spot between the call and put, and I was right about that. 3 for 3. Let the holiday/Oscar season begin!

September 3, 2010: Machete, Going the Distance

I missed predicting the opening for The American, because I was out of town. Oops! But there are still two movies left on which to opine. It's Labor Day weekend, but this doesn't feel like a great weekend for movies. Note: Because of the holiday, the adjusts will happen on Monday, and the multiplier will be 2.2, instead of 2.7. Doesn't change much, but always good to note that.

First up is Machete (MCHTE), from Robert Rodriguez, based on a trailer from that movie he did with Quentin Tarantino. Stock isn't doing that well, the price has dropped off a cliff, dropping from H$64 in late July to H$41 today. That is up from the low, but still, not a great sign. This is certainly Robriguez's bailiwick, cartoonish violence with a Mexican hero. Strike price was unfortunately set at H$20, which now looks somewhat on the wrong side of realistic. Call is, as expected, below the IPO price, while the put is way above the IPO. Critics are surprisingly positive, with a 69% rating on RT. The trailer is pretty much one long series of gunfights and explosions, but the ending is very funny. It's going out on 2,600 screens, not the widest release, but not a bad one either. Looks like the hype has been wrung out of the stock, and it looks like fun. Utterly formulaic, but fun. Rodriguez knows a thing or two about this kind of movie.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

Justin Long and Drew Barrymore star in Going the Distance (GDIST), a romcom about two people in a long distance relationship. I like both of them, I generally like romantic comedies, and I've even tried a long distance relationship (although it didn't work out), but this isn't grabbing me. Apparently many people are feeling the same - it has also dropped off a cliff, falling from H$45 to H$30. This one, however, doesn't seem to be recovering. Strike price was, again, optimistically set at H$15, and, again, that doesn't like it's going to happen. Call is sinking fast, while the put is, again, above H$3. Critics aren't very enthusiastic, with only a 38% rating on RT. It is going out on 3,000 screens, but that just provides a slight cushion.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Update Monday night: A pretty good weekend. I was off on Machete, it only brought in $14 million, and adjusted down, to H$30, from H$37. Got the options right on that one, tho, although that wasn't hard. I did nail GDIST, only cleared $8 million - on a four-day weekend! - and adjusted down, from H$32 to H$18. I like Drew Barrymore, but I have the feeling she might need to do something a little riskier or at least more interesting than a romantic comedy with a thin premise. Overall, I got 5 out of 6 right.

August 27, 2010: The Last Exorcism, Takers

It's the dog days of August, and that means slump time. Dumping time. Get rid of all your trash before the fall starts. So we're not real excited about the movies coming out tomorrow. But we're going to do our best to evaluate them.

The first shall be last, and the last shall be first. Thus the first movie up this week is The Last Exorcism (LXORC). It's a horror movie about a priest and an exorcism. Always good for some scares. The stars - such as they are - are total unknowns, as is the director. At least they are all total unknowns to me. Of course, this may be because I have zero interest in horror movies. I do have an interest in this stock, which has been climbing quite nicely and steadily. It's at H$40, down just a bit from the high of H$44. Strike price is H$10, which is absurdly low, given the stock price. So we have a situation once again where the options are not hard to predict. The call is at H$6 and change. Haven't seen that for a while! The put is at H$0.57. Haven't seen that in a while, either! It's going out on 2,800 screens, which is a good solid release. Critics are pleasantly surprised, with a 65% rating on rottentomatoes.com. All signs point to some good potential on the upside, like $14-$16 million.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Not quite as many people are taken by Takers (TAKER) the other big opening this weekend. This does have a cast of recognizable stars, but not really anyone who can open a movie. Didn't we just see Matt Dillon in a heist movie? Didn't we just see Zoe Saldana in a cheesy action movie? Stock is at H$28, and the strike price is, again, H$10, although this time that is dead-on. The call is slightly outpacing the stock - it's closing in on H$3. The put is closer to the stock, just below H$2. It's going out on 2,200 screens, so the studio is playing it a little safe. Critics are not enthused, with just a 29% approval on RT. Not expecting any surprises here, in either the movie itself, or the box office. I'm guessing it has some marginal room to move on the top, but I'm looking for the sweet spot on the options, right around the strike price, at $10 million.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

Both stocks are up this morning a shade over H$3. Looking good for the last week of August. Maintaining all positions.

Two nice surprises this weekend. Both movies opened at aboout $21 million, way above the strike prices, and, for Takers, way above the price predicted by the stock, although the momentum was clearly up. The only prediction that I missed was the call on Takers, but it's always very risky predicting the sweet spot. Otherwise a very good weekend.