September 24, 2010: Wall Street, You Again, Legends of the Guardians

We're out of the post-summer slump, but not quite in Oscar season, so we have some maybe-sorta quality movies. At least this isn't a dumping-ground weekend.

Gordon Gekko, star of Wall Street, is back, and Michael Douglas looks like he's having a heck of a good time. There are a couple of young people starring with him, Shia Labeouf and Carey Mulligan, presumably to make this movie more appealing to young people who are more familiar with them than Oliver Stone's late-80's movie. The hype around this movie was, of course, a bit much, and it has, appropriately, tanked in the last few weeks, down to H$68, from H$90. Strike price is dead on, at H$25. Call is doing quite well, at H$4 and change, while the put is tanking, down to H$1 and a half. But we have a problem here: movement on the options is strongly up, but momentum on the stock is down. Critics are mostly positive, with a 56% rating on RT. However, that's not quite a fresh rating. I'm not quite sure what the point is here, and if I am confused, it's a fair bet other people are, as well. Watching the trailer, I'm sensing a lot of drama, but I don't know where it's going. I'm going to wait to see if this is worth watching. I'm betting against the market, but that's where the real money is.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Rarely have I seen a stock tank as sharply as You Again (UAGAN). This is sad, because it's a mostly female cast, with some great actresses, including Sigourney Weaver and Jamie Lee Curtis. And the great Betty White. It went from H$52 to H$36 in a week. Wow, that's bad. Strike price was set at H$20, which made perfect sense a couple of weeks ago. Today, it's absurd. Call is below a buck, and the put is aiming at H$5. Critics are brutal, with a 17% rating. Calls are not hard on this one.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

One movie I wasn't anticipating, but showed up on my radar when I saw lots of posters for it at the mall, is Legends of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole. The title sounds faintly ridiculous to me, but apparently it's based on a famous children's book or books. The stock isn't doing all that well, down to H$52, from H$67. It looks terribly cliched to me. Also, how exactly are we supposed to tell owls apart? They don't have particularly expressive faces. But I'm sure there's lots of great aerial combat. I was also surprised that it's directed by Zack Snyder, who made 300. Strike price is H$20, which is dead on. Call is doing well, up H$3, while the put is below a buck. Critics are not very enthusiastic, with only a 50% rating on RT. Maybe I'm not in a good mood (which is entirely possible), but I'm betting against the market again. I just don't see the appeal.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Update Friday afternoon: It's past halt time, so this is irrelevant, except as a matter of record. I reversed position on Wall Street, because it was up H$4.50, which is a major move. I didn't have time to reverse positions on the options, which may be a bad mistake. I also have a feeling that there is more potential for loss on the upside than on the downside.

Update Sunday night: Well, damn. My original instinct on Wall Street was right: it opened at only $19 million, dropping H$20. But I was right about the other two, and I was right about the options for Wall Street, but only because I didn't have time to reverse positions. So I was right about 8 out of 9, but wrong about the biggest one. Which I was right about originally.

June 25, 2010: Grown-Ups

There's only one movie opening tomorrow, Grown-Ups (GRWUP), starring a bunch of guys who are usually very funny. I, however, don't find the trailer all that exciting. The stock has followed the classic bell-curve of summer blockbusters, peaking about a month ago, and tanking since. It's at H$102, down from H$136. Strike price is H$40, which would predict a stock price of H$108. The call, predictably, is sliding, down to H$1.22. The put is heading north, above H$4. It's going out on 3,200 screens. The CX derivative has been just steadily dropping, and is currently about H$114. So that has room to drop as well. Strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant is H$120, which is feasible, but unlikely. That's at H$6.

It's at only 10% on rottentomatoes.com. I couldn't find any review of it on aintitcool.com, so maybe Harry Knowles is completely ignoring it. Which would not surprise me. I'm not sure what this is about, other than some guys getting together when they are in their 40's, and acting immature. This does not have zero appeal for me - it has less than that. I don't hate Adam Sandler, I think he plays well in his niche, he knows what he's good at, and I've enjoyed some of his movies. But please, someone make this movie go away.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

BW: Short

Update Friday morning: It's down H$6. Whoops. So much for that idea.

Update Sunday night: I guess the message of the weekend is: don't underestimate Adam Sandler. He brought in $40 million, basically what most of his movies have made. Guess the market read him wrong as well. He knows what he does well, and he sticks to that, for the most part. Works for him, isn't working for me at this point.

June 4, 2010: Get Him to the Greek, Killers, Marmaduke, Splice

We have a bumper crop of mildly interesting movies this weekend, but I don't have a lot of time, so I am going to bang through these fast.

Get Him to the Greek (GHGRK). I have zero interest in this film. It's tanking, currently at H$53, down from H$75. A $20 million opening is possible, although the strike price is H$25, with the call about H$1, and the put above H$4. CX derivative is H$60 and dropping. Reviews, however, are very good, with a 74% rating on RT. OK, I'm a little more interested.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Killers could be a great bad movie, but I'm not sure it could be a good movie. I love Katherine Heigl, I think she's incredibly gorgeous, but I'm not completely sold on her as an actress. And I am really not sold on Ashton Kutcher as an actor. But this looks like it could be fun. Stock (5KILR) is H$48, down from H$68, but up H$4 today, so it probably bottomed out. Strike price is the same at Greek, H$25, with the same results: call is dropping, below H$1, and the put is, again, above H$4. CX is also tanking. There are no reviews on RT, which means that it didn't screen for critics.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

I am utterly void of interest in Marmaduke (MARMA). From H$74 to H$45 - another slide. Another H$25 strike price, with the call barely above a quarter (H$0.31) and the put, again, above H$4. CX following same trajectory: H$74 to H$50. Only 3 reviews, so, also again, no critics' screening.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Splice (SPLIC) is the one movie this weekend with some potential to break out. Stock is at H$26, but that's near the high of H$30. Strike price is H$10, with the call aiming at H$3, and the put just barely above IPO. No CX derivative. We could have a winner here.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Update Friday morning: There are now enough reviews on RT to make a judgment about Marmaduke, and boy, it ain't pretty. 10%. That's right around complete bomb territory. Everything is down this morning, so maintaining the shorts on the dog movie and Killers looks easy. Splice is also down, although just a bit. It's had such a great run up, I'm not surprised that it's taken a hit. $10 million feels high for that movie, but it's going out on 2,400 screens, so I am going to take the risk that we will be pleasantly surprised. I'm also nervous about GHGRK, but the reviews are holding up. Maintaining all positions.

A middling weekend for a bunch of middling movies. My optimism for GHGRK was slightly misplaced; it opened at $17.4 million, adjust down just H$2, to H$47. Still, I was wrong on the stock. Killers opened below that, as expected, with $16.1 million. It actually adjusted up, albeit just barely, from H$42 to H$43. However, that's below where it was when I called shorting the stock, so I am going to give myself credit for that one. Marmaduke opened with $11 million, way, way below that H$25 strike price. Called that one perfectly. My nervousness about Splice turned out to be justified, it opened with $7.45 million. I got 11 out of 15 right, actually quite a nice record for the weekend, although I botched Splice. A large part of the reason for that record was the unfortunate strike prices, which made it easy to predict the options for 3 of the 4. My mistake on Greek and Splice was giving a little too much credit to some very insubstantial buzz. The average of the user reviews on Yahoo! for Splice is C+. OK, that sucks. The others are B to B+. Shorting all to delist.

January 22, 2010: Angels and Doctors

There are two movies featuring men with wings opening this week. Plus Harrison Ford playing a doctor. It's still January. We have mild hopes for the Harrison Ford, but not much for the other two.

First up is Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson in "The Tooth Fairy" (TOFRY), about a hockey player who has to be a tooth fairy for a week. A literal fairy, complete with wings. We're in "high concept" territory here. I have a certain amount of respect for Mr. Johnson - he clearly has a sense of humor about himself, and he's taken Clint Eastwood's advice about a man knowing his limitations. I'm sure there is some entertainment value in this movie. The question for us today is how much. I'm guessing not a lot. The stock is at H$46, down from a high of H$54. Strike price is reasonably set at H$15, with the call (TOFRCA) at H$3 and change, and the put (TOFRPU) at H$2. A $15 million opening would translate to H$40.5, so the options and stock price are in alignment. The CX derivative on HSX is at H$52, and dropping. On Cantor, it's at $57, which feels too high. It's going out on as many screens as possible, at least 3,000, about what we expect. Critics are fairly savage, also what we expect - it's at 13% on rottentomatoes.com. I'm sure it will do a certain amount of business just by virtue of being a comedy. This kind of thing is very much a known quantity. I think the market has it about right. Time to aim for the sweet spot again, right around $15 million

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

CX on HSX: Short

Cantor: Short

The next movie featuring a guy with wings is "Legion" (LEGIN) in which Paul Bettany plays the Archangel Michael, trying to save humanity from God's wrath. The ancient Israelites got Noah; we get Paul Bettany. I think the trailer looks good, but we have roughly the same phenomenon as we do with Tooth Fairy - very much a known quantity. Stock is at H$43, down from a high of H$51. Strike price is, again, set reasonably at H$15, with the call (LEGICA), again, above H$3, the put (LEGIPU) around H$2, and the CX derivative above the stock, floating around $50. Theater count is a little lower than TOFRY, around 2,400. There are no reviews on RT, which suggests that it was not screened for critics, which is never a good sign. On Cantor, it's at $42; I have it shorted at $55. Not a good sign in the bunch, other than the call. I'm playing this the same way I played TOFRY (love that symbol): looking for the sweet spot.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

CX on HSX: Short

Cantor: Short

Then there's a Harrison Ford movie, Extreme Measures (XMEAS), in which he plays a cantankerous but brilliant doctor. I seem to recall when he was a major movie star. I don't recall him playing too many cheerful, happy-go-lucky types, but when he played Han Solo or Indiana Jones, it was always with an incredible sense of style. Not sure where that went. It sounds like a very inspiring story - a father with two kids with a genetic disorder raises money for this eccentric doctor. I'm sure it is. But the stock is in the low H$20's, and the strike price is H$10, with the call (XMEACA) just above H$2, and the put (XMEAPU) a smidgen higher, around H$2 and a half. The CX derivative is at around the same place. It's a tad higher on Cantor, around $27. It's going out on around 2,500 screens or so. Critics are brutal, with only 13% approving, and several noting what I suspected, which is that it's basically a TV movie-of-the-week that escaped the small screen because of the presence of Harrison Ford. Still, there's a market for this stuff. Looking for the sweet spot again.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

CS on HSX: Long

Cantor: Long

Update Sunday night: A mixed bag. I hit the sweet spot on TOFY, and came close on LEGIN. Missed XMEAS; it fell short by a bit. I guess Harrison Ford's star power really has evaporated. Really should not have held XMEAS long on Cantor. Overall, I split the predictions exactly in half - 7 right, 7 wrong.