May 27, 2010: Sex and the City 2

Sex and the City 2 (SATC2) is opening tomorrow, Thursday, so this post is just about that movie.

I'm actually not a bad person to be thinking about this movie, despite being a straight white male who doesn't have a girlfriend who desperately wants to see this. I did see the first movie, on opening night no less, with several friends. I liked it, and appreciated the franchise. I get it. I'm somewhat proud of the fact that I understand the appeal despite the fact that I do not find Sarah Jessica Parker all that appealing. I do have a lot respect for the fact that she's done wonders with this concept. And my sister absolutely loves SATC, and she's got very good taste.

For today, however, our concern is tomorrow. The stock is at H$146, down H$3 today, and down from a high of H$165. The adjust formula is complicated (previous B.O. + (2.2 x Fri-Mon)), both because of the Thursday opening, and the holiday weekend. Assuming a Thursday total of about $5 million, that stock price predicts a Friday-Monday total of $63 million. That's a chunk of change. The call (SEX2CA) is at H$4 and change, so there is a certain amount of optimism out there, while the put (SEX2PU) is above H$3. So there is a certain amount of pessimism, as well. The CX derivative is tanking, down from H$185 to H$155.

It's going out on about 3,500 screens, which translates to a PSA (per screen average) of $18,000. The original opened with $57 million, so the sequel would have to do better than the original. But the reviews are horrible - I would describe them as "savage," but I'm not sure that's harsh enough. It's at 15% on RT. I'm also deeply skeptical of the premise. Carrie and Big are married, and they're not that excited about it. And this is exciting why? The girls fly to Abu Dhabi for a good time. Is anyone besides me bothered by the fact that a movie called Sex and the City 2 takes place in the desert?

I know this is the female equivalent of an explosions-filled action adventure movie. But I also know that explosions-filled action adventure movies can totally bomb. This may be another milestone in the history of feminism: women can succeed as brilliantly as men. They can also fail as spectacularly as men.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Update Thursday morning: SATC2 is down almost H$7 this morning. It may bounce back a buck or two by the time it halts (it's currently 7:45 AM Pacific), but that's a really bad sign. Maintaining all positions.

Update Monday night: I was right all the way around on this one. It cleared $37 million over the 4-day weekend, plus $14 million on Thursday. That's a solid $51 million, but the stock dropped from H$141 to H$95. Looks like the critics were right.