Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week of October 8, 2010

It's been a long week, so this will be a short post. Also, none of the movies opening this week have really peaked my interest.

Easily the most interesting movie this weekend is Secretariat (SCTRT). It would be a very cheesy movie if it weren't based on a true story. Even I remember Secretariat, and I know nothing about horses. I also like Diane Lane, and of course John Malkovich is always fun to watch. The stock tanked for a while, but it's back up. Strike price is H$15, with the call doing quite well, and the put barely above IPO. Critics mostly like it, with a 61% rating on RT. What you see is what you get with this one. Disney does these well.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Look, it's another Katherine Heigl romantic comedy! Sigh. I like Katherine Heigl, I think she's drop-dead gorgeous and funny, and very charming, but Life As We Know It (LAWKI) is dropping like a rock. This is about the worst possible time for me to be even thinking about a movie with this premise.
Stock: Short
Call: Long
Put: Short

Look, it's another Wes Craven movie about teenagers being terrorized! I managed to watch the trailer, and even I wasn't that scared. Sorry, Wes, not going on this ride.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short

Update Friday morning: all 3 are down, but Secretariat is only down slightly, while the other 2 are down at least H$2. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: It wasn't a good weekend for me, but that's not surprising, since I didn't spend a lot of time on these predictions. Secretariat adjusted down, Life as We Know It adjusted up slightly, and - at least I got one right - My Soul To Take dropped, pulling in all of $7 million. Note: It's Kind Of A Funny Story also opened wide, I guess, but I didn't predict it, because I didn't think it was opening wide. It dropped like a rock, but it's getting some good reviews.