Christmas 2009: It's Complicated, Sherlock Holmes, Nine

I'm a little late posting this, since the stocks halt in the next few minutes, so this is going to be brief.

It's Complicated: Well, maybe. Sounds like an appealing romantic comedy for a group of people who normally aren't targeted by movies in this genre, i.e. people over 50. It also sounds like it's a little too formulaic, which could also turn off these people, who should be more discriminating by virtue of experience. Also, the stock has been tanking of late. Short.

Sherlock Holmes: This is another "reinvention," i.e. an updating of a franchise. I'm not sure I buy it, because I have the feeling that without Holmes' calm, understated British approach, this becomes another action adventure movie. Someone, I think the producer, described this as "James Bond in 1891." Except that we already have James Bond, and Sherlock Holmes is supposed to occupy a different place in the pop culture universe. Holmes is not supposed to be a rogue. There is supposed to be something elitist and slightly snobbish about him. He's supposed to represent the best of society - the smnartest, most responsible, most diligent - taking care of everyone. Stock is down H$6 today. Short

Nine is that rarity, a musical. The reviews have not been great, and apparently Daniel Day-Lews is not much of a song and dance man. But there are lots of seriously hot women, which should have some appeal to certain segments of the population. It's just below H$30, so I think it might be a bargain. Long.

Well, this turned out to be a heck of a weekend for the box office - biggest weekend ever. Woo hoo! I was mostly wrong, seriously underestimating the appeal of Mr. Robert Downey, Jr. and the Chipmunks. I was technically wrong on It's Complicated, but not by much, since it only adjusted up H$2. I was also technically wrong on Up in the Air, which probably got lost in the shuffle, but the studio is rolling that out slowly and deliberately, so that should still be a good one to hold long to delist. I also underestimated how badly Nine would get lost in the shuffle. No love for Mr. Day-Lewis.

December 22, 2009 (Wednesday): Up Iin the Air with Alvin and the Chipmunks

Tomorrow is Wednesday of Christmas week, a perfect time to release movies. Two are coming out, Up in the Air and Alvin and the Chipmunks: the Squeakquel.

Up in the Air (UPAIR) isn't actually being released tomorrow; it's been in limited release for about three weeks, and has already grossed $8 million. The stock climbed very steadily for a while, but has been on a roller coaster the last couple of weeks. Still, it's at H$65, not far from the high of H$73. It's expanding to a total of 1,895 screens, which isn't a very wide release. The reviews are incredible, scoring 90% at rottentomatoes, with much Oscar buzz. Of course, it stars George Clooney. And it's directed by Jason Reitman, who directed Thank You For Smoking, one of my all-time favorite comedies. But it's a comedy about people being laid off. So there's some potential downside. As far as I can tell, there are no opening-weekend options, which makes sense. The CX derivative on HSX is at H$72, fairly close to the stock. The strike price for the Holiday Warrant is H$70. Seriously? That's way low, and of course it's well above that. There are Nominoptions for Best Director, Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Go long on all of those. On Cantor Exchange, it's at $71, which is down from the absurd high of $91 (where I shorted it). I think it will do well, but I also suspect that it will build through word of mouth. It's not an easy sell. It will adjust at a formula of [Previous Box Office + (3.0 * BO Fri-Sun)]. It's already done $8 million, and could easily do $7 million on Wednesday and Thursday. That's $15 million. To make the current price, it would have to do about $17 million Fri-Sun. Friday is Christmas, and Saturday and Sunday are the days after Xmas. So it's possible, but very much - forgive the pun - up in the air. But I love a trailer about a guy in corporate America that starts with Iggy Pop's "The Passenger," from his "Lust for Life" album.
Stock: Long
CX on HSX: Long
All nominoptions: Long
Cantor: Long




Alvin and the Chipmunks (ALVN2) are back, because the first one made a ton of money. Jason Lee is not back in the starring role as their human overseer. Sounds like a good move on his part. The stock is at H$135, down from a high of $148. Not much of a drop, but I have a gut instinct that it's going to be a precipitous drop from here. It's going out on almost twice as many screens as George & Co., but the reviews are excruciating, at 25% on RT, with several critics calling it the worst film of the year. Reviews aren't all that important for a movie like this, but when they are that savage, you have to listen to them. Strike price for Fri-Sun is H$40, which is a good price for the stock price. Call (AC2CA) is doing well, aiming at H$4. The put (AC2PU), however, is also above water, at H$2 and a half. The CX derivative on HSX is above the stock, currently H$149. Strike price for the Holiday Warrant (HWAL2) is H$150, and it's about H$14. On Cantor, it's at $144, and dropping from above $150. On IMDb, it's scoring a 3.3. Not a lot of votes, but a lot of "1's." Women seem to like it a lot more than men, but men seem to really hate it. Jason Lee probably walked away from $10 million when he passed on this, and he's a guy who could probably use another blockbuster. That says something. There's only one reason to make this movie: milking the franchise. I'm getting a bad feeling about this. I think the charm is disappearing. I'm not even going to look for Nominoptions. I like the idea of the chipmunks, but I think there was enough potential in the franchise for exactly one movie.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
CX on HSX: Short
Holiday Warrant: Short
Cantor: Short

Update Wednesday morning: ALVN2 is up H$3, while UPAIR is down H$5. I'm reversing my position on UPAIR, at least partially - I shorted the max on HSX, and sold half my 50,000 shares. I still think it will do well, but it's going to have to build good word of mouth. I still the expectations for the Chipmunks are a little out of whack. Also, a slight mea culpa: turns out that Jason Lee is in this movie, but just barely - he's in traction somewhere, so his nephew has to take care of the chipmunks. Which means that he was probably contractually obligated to be in the movie, but he didn't really want to, so they sort of put him in it.

December 18, 2009: Did You Hear About Avatar?

There are only two movies out in wide release this weekend, but one is one of the most highly anticipated movies of this, or the last several, years.

But first, the sacrificial lamb. That would be "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" (MRGNS), starring Hugh Grant and Sarah Jessica Parker. I like Hugh Grant, I think he was great in Notting Hill. I'm not such a fan of SJP, but I can see the two of them as a couple in New York. Makes sense to me. The problem I have with them right now is that the stock is tanking big time. Just dropping like a rock. It's going out on 2,700 screens, which is a good wide release. But it's at only 10% on rottentomatoes.com. I have a strong feeling it's being released against Avatar for a couple of reasons. One, no other studio wanted to release a movie this weekend. Two, the studio probably assumes it's not going to great business anyways, so why even try? Three, it will be easy to blame the lack of box office on the competition. The strike price is H$20, which is absurd for a stock barely breaking H$30. The call (MRGCA) is dropping almost as fast as the stock, while the put (MRGPU) is heading skyward, about H$4 and a half. The CX derivative on HSX is still above H$40, wonder of wonders, but we can probably assume that won't last long. It's also dropping on Cantor, although it's still in the mid-30's. I like the trailer, but I have a feeling that all the good jokes are in those 2 1/2 minutes.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX on HSX: Short

Cantor: Short

Now, of course, we come to the big box office draw this weekend, a little movie called Avatar (AVATR), by some guy named James Cameron, who is one of the most successful directors of all time. The expectations are through the roof, and the backlash is almost as intense, even before the movie is released. Several people have pointed out that similar predictions of doom accompanied Titanic. The stock has been floating above H$200 for a few weeks now. Strike price is H$65, which correlates to a stock price of H$175. Call (AVACA) is, appropriately, through the roof. Put is in the nether regions. It's going out on a bazillion screens. Critics are loving it, and falling all over themselves to praise it. It's at 82% on RT. Strike price for the Holiday Warrant is H$200, and that's looking absurdly low. CX on HSX is at H$277, which is way high. The Cantor derivative has been floating between $220 and $250. There are various Nominoptions. Go long on most of those.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Holiday Warrant: Long

CX on HSX: Long

Holiday Warrant: Long

Cantor: Long

Update Friday morning: Avatar is up H$9, and MRGNS is down almost H$3, so it looks like people are buying the hype about Avatar. James Cameron does have a rather spectacular track record. Morgans looks like a bunch of jokes in search of a plot. I have a feeling that is going to turn off most demographics. East Coast elites will get some of it, but they might also not appreciate being made fun of. Meanwhile, people in the heartland might be offended by the stereotypes of down-home folks with guns. I'm also not sure how it resolves. Are they going to fall back in love? So keep the short on that one.

Update Sunday night: Avatar didn't quite storm the gates as expected, but it still did $73 million, and apparently there was a major storm on the East Coast that thwarted some moviegoing. I'm still long to delist. Morgans, OTOH, was, in fact, a bomb, and presumably will be forgotten in a few weeks. I got everything right about MRGNS, while the only thing I got clearly wrong about AVATR was the stock. It dropped H$19, but that's just 10%, and I think it will make it up. CX on HSX is still a little high, but it's impossible to tell whether or not I was right about anything of the derivatives besides the put and call. Both of which I got right. So it was a good weekend.

December 11, 2009: The Princess and the Frog, Invictus, and Lovely Bones

We're finally getting into the swing of things in the holiday season, with three good, potentially great, movies opening this weekend. Oscar season is here!

First up is a classic Disney movie, told in classic Disney hand-drawn animation.The Princess and the Frog (FROGP) is a variation on the fairy tale about a handsome prince who is turned into a frog, and needs to be kissed by a princess to turn back into a prince. One difference this time is that the princess is African-American. Disney is taking a bit of a gamble by going old-school with the animation, but I wouldn't bet against Disney and animation. The stock has been progressing nicely, and is at H$87. The strike price is nicely set at H$30, and the call (PFRCA) is, as expected, well above the IPO, currently at H$4. Put (PFRPU) is, as expected, below IPO, currently about H$1.50. Strike price for the Holiday Warrant (HWPRF) is H$100, and the price there is also above the IPO, about H$16. So far, so good. Where it gets interesting is the CX and Cantor derivatives. CX on HSX is about H$107, or 20 points higher than the stock. On Cantor, it's still a little higher, about $111. It's going out on 3,300 screens, a good wide release. It's scoring 83% on rottentomatoes.com, with lots of critics weighing in (it was released in LA and NY last week). It's already made $2.6 million. The last thing you should do is best against Disney animation. It needs to do $32 million to meet the HSX price, and $41 million to meet the Cantor price. WALL-E, which did not have a story anywhere nearly as easily sold to small children, opened with $63 million. $50 million is entirely possible for the Princess and her frog.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Holiday Warrant: Long
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long

Coming down to earth, we have Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon staring in a Clint Eastwood movie with a weird name, Invictus (INVIC). That's a great combination right there. Throw in Nelson Mandela and a world championship in a very tough sport, and you've got a powerful combination. There's another movie out right now that combines race and sports that has been an absolute smash - The Blind Side. I am currently realizing a 200% profit on that on Cantor. Apparently when Morgan Freeman met Nelson Mandela, Mandela told him that he wanted him, Morgan Freeman, to play him in a movie. Morgan Freeman played a black American president years ago, so playing Nelson Mandela is a natural progression. Where do you go from playing an American president? Nelson Mandela is about the only step up. I love the trailer for this movie. There's another trailer with a scene of Matt Damon rallying his troops after a defeat. Based on just that clip, I think Matt Damon is a front runner for Best Actor. The market is not quite as optimistic as I am about this. The stock is at H$43, down from a high of H$66. The strike price is H$20, which should seem unrealistic. The call (NVCCA) is dropping, and is barely above H$1. The put (NVCPU) is doing well, aiming at H$4. Strike price for the Holiday Warrant (HWINV) is H$70, and that's dropping, down to H$5. CX derivative on HSX is down to H$57, from the same high as the stock, H$66. On Cantor, it's below the CX price, down to H$52. All signs, in other words, point down. It's going out on 2,150 screens, a good release, not fantastic. But there's one very good sign: it's at 82% on RT. I think it's sinking for two reasons: 1, it's about rugby, which most Americans are not familiar with, and Obama's popularity is sinking, and many people are a little tired of inspirational rhetoric about a black president. But this also sounds like a damn good movie, Clint Eastwood has become a great director, and even if Americans don't understand rugby, they sure as heck understand winning. I'm willing to bet that lots of the women who are seeing The Blind Side don't particularly like football, but they get the story. I think that will be the case here.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Holiday Warrant: Long
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long

Last is a movie that is going into limited release this weekend, and going wide in January: Lovely Bones (LVBON). I have to be honest: this movie totally confounds me. It sounds incredibly depressing, but I've heard rumors of it being very highly anticipated, particularly by high school students. The stock is sinking, down to H$41, from a high of H$60. There are no options on HSX, and I'm not sure there will be. Strike price for the Holiday Warrant (HWLVB) is H$70, and that's sinking like a rock, down to H$7 or so. The CX derivative on HSX is down from H$69 to H$64. On Cantor, meanwhile, it's at $83, down from a high in the $90's. The reviews are in, and they're not good: it's at only 50% on RT, with 40 critics weighing in. Moreover, the good reviews are tepid, and many of the negative ones are strongly negative. It's only on 3 screens this weekend, and goes wide January 15th. That gives us lots of time for word of mouth to spread, and it doesn't look like it's going to spread well.
Stock: Short
Holiday Warrant: Short
CX on HSX: Short
Cantor: Short

Update Friday morning: INVIC and FROGP are both up about H$3, a good sign. It looks like INVIC might not make the strike price, but I am expecting some upside. LVBON, OTOH, keeps sinking. It's still in the high $70's on Cantor, which confuses the heck out of me. One thing I thot of yesterday writing this post is that I was highly optimistic about Peter Jackson's King Kong. I bet on Intrade that it was going to open above $100, and it opened with $66 million. We also have to remember the Wachowski brothers syndrome: they made a great movie, The Matrix, but followed it up with some real duds. So Peter Jackson is still flying on the success of the LOTR movies, but he's human. I thot King Kong was a little too ridiculous, and I haven't heard anything about it since the release. Clint Eastwood, however, has a great track record as a director. So does James Cameron, so I am very much looking forward to Avatar.

Update Sunday night: Sigh. Totally wrong on both movies.FROGP adjusted downwards, to H$77. Not a big drop, but $25 million is not the $50 million I was predicting. Can't believe I predicted something so way off from the market's prediction. INVIC continued its downward trend, only making $9 million this weekend. I think it will bounce back, but that's a long way from the $60+ that the Cantor option was trading at. Maybe it isn't a good movie to release during the holiday season. I also noticed this weekend that both of these movies star black characters (the Princess and Nelson Mandela). That would be black as opposed to African-American, because Nelson Mandela is not an American. Lesson for the week: respect the market.

December 4, 2009: Armored, Brothers, Everybody's Fine

Good collection of movies this week, one standard action adventure flick, one war movie, and a family dramedy featuring Robert De Niro.

First up is Armored (ARMRD), about an armored car heist. Always a fun topic! It's got a solid cast, including Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburn, although the director has the unfortunate name of Nimrod Antal. The stock has been moving up quite steadily, but dropped about a week ago. It hit H$35, and is currently at H$25 on HSX. On Cantor Exchange, it has had roughly the same tragectory. The CX derivative on HSX, on the other hand, has sunk like a stone in the last few days, and hasn't come back Strike price is H$10, and the call (ARMCA) is dropping, down below the IPO price. That makes sense. The put (ARMPU), meanwhile, is marching in the opposite direction, heading towards H$3. It's only going out on 1,900 screens, so it's not a very wide release. There's only one review on rottentomatoes.com. I'm not sure if that's because it's early (I'm writing this on Wednesday night), or because the studio doesn't plan on screening it. If it's the latter, watch out. There aren't a lot of good cheesy action movies out right now, with the possible exception of Zombieland, and that's already gone. Even if it's not that good, it should pull in at least $10 million this weekend.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long

'Armored' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Next up is Brothers (BRTHS). This one is a little more intense. It's about a pair of brothers, one of whom goes to Afghanistan. I'm going to end the description right there. It looks rather intense. Stock has been going up steadily, currently around H$20. The strike price is about as low as possible, H$5, with the call (BRHCA) optimistically trading above H$3, and the put (BRHPU) around H$2. This is interesting: The CX derivative on HSX is at H$18, but the stock on Cantor is at $33! That's a hell of a divergence. It's rolling out on 2,000 screens. It's only scoring 50% on RT. It's got a good cast, but the story seems like a downer, particularly with President Obama's decision to send another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The track record of war movies about Iraq or Afghanistan is not good. I would be surprised if it does more than $7 million.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Short




Finally, Robert De Niro stars in a quiet family drama as a widower reconnecting with his kids. This looks like quality. It's nice to see De Niro in a sober, simple movie. He deserves something like this. The title, Everybody's Fine (EBFIN) sounds like it both is and is not ironic. It's one of those things that you say sometimes because it's true, and sometimes because you hope it's true. The stock has been marching up, but is still only at about H$16. Mr. De Niro and friends are going under the radar. Except on Cantor, where the price is $27. Strike price is H$5 - not very high expectations for this week's releases! - with the call (EBFCA) doing reasonably well, and the put (EBFPU) tanking, as expected. The CX option on HSX is almost exactly in line with the stock, a good sign. It's the widest release this week, although it's only going out on 2,200 screens. It's at 57% on RT, a solid rating, if not great. It feels like a good holiday movie for people who want something without histrionics.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long

'Everybodys Fine' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Update Monday morning: Well, I was wrong about all of the stocks, but not by much. Armored and Everybody's Fine turned out to be duds, while Brothers did slightly better than I expected. Apparently the weekend after Thanksgiving is a traditionally slow one, so studios tend to release weak movies this weekend. That's another thing I learned. It makes sense, tho, since the big Thanksgiving weekend movies are still popular, and taking up a lot of screens. Overall, I got 5 out of 15 calls right. But next weekend, things should be heating up quite a bit.

November 20, 2009: Blind Side, Planet 51, New Moon

There are three movies opening this weekend, one rather large one, and two others, whose studio executives are brave enough to release movies against one of the most anticipated movies of the year.

Let's get the small fry out of the way. First up is Planet 51 (PLT51), an animated movie about an astronaut who ends up on another planet, where the aliens look and act a lot like earthlings. I like the trailer, I think it's a funny concept, particularly for a kid's movie. Not many people seem to agree with me - the stock has been tanking, dropping from H$57 just a month ago to H$38 today. Much of that, I am sure, is because traders are assuming that Twilight 2 will overwhelm everything in its path. I'm not so sure - that's going to be a big hit, but primarily with young women. The strike price is H$20, which seems very high today, although it made sense a month ago. Call is (P51CA) not doing too badly, considering, just below H$2. The put (P51PU), as expected, is doing well, aiming at H$4. The CX derivative on HSX, interestingly, has followed the same trajectory, but hit a higher high (H$64), and is still in the mid H$50's. On cantorexchange.com, the same security is down to $45. It's opening on 2,600+ screens, which is a good wide release. There aren't enough reviews to get a good feel at rottentomatoes.com. So it doesn't look good - most of the signs are negative, except for the fact that the trailer is entertaining. Still, at this price, it also looks like a good deal. The second weekend for this movie will be Thanksgiving weekend, so assuming the word of mouth is even remotely decent, it should delist well above the adjust.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX on HSX: Short

Cantor: Long

'Planet 51' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Bringing us rather powerfully down to earth is The Blind Side (BLDSD), Sandra Bullock starring in a true story about a Southern woman who takes in a young African American man. It's supposed to be for one night, but ends up being forever. That young man is now an NFL left tackle (hence the title - the left tackle defends a quarterback's blind side). The trailer is inspirational as all get-out. It's a great role for Sandra Bullock, a solid contrast to her other two roles this year. It's a powerful combination: a Southern woman, football, and a big, potentially threatening, African American young man. There's going to be a whole lot of redemption up there on the screen. This is going to play very, very well in the South. Which means that it may very well be underestimated on the coasts. The stock has been mostly moving up, and is around H$41. Strike price is appropriately set at H$15. Call (BSDCA) is below IPO, at H$1.61 as of this writing. Hmmm. But a $15 million opening weekend would translate to an adjust of H$40.5. So the call is predicting that the stock will not adjust much, if at all. The put (BSDPU) is moving up smartly, heading towards H$3. The CX option on HSX (BLDSD.CX) has been floating in the mid-H$40's, but trending down. On cantorexchange, however, it's up $3 today to $43. It's doing exceptionally well on RT so far, with 73% positive. It's also on 3,100+ screens. There is one strong positive: Tim McGraw is in it. You don't get more Southern star power than Tim McGraw, with the possible exception of his wife. His presence will give it all kinds of credibility where it counts.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX on HSX: Long

Cantor: Long

Then there's this little movie called The Twilight Saga: New Moon (TWLI2) about some cute undead guys. I can almost hear the shrieking teenage girls from here. I haven't read the books and have no intention of doing so. I didn't see the first movie and have no intention of doing so. So I'm not the best judge of where this is going, but I do sense a little bit of a backlash. Maybe that's because I am so uninterested in it myself. The stock has been climbing, of course, and is at H$260, or about a $96 million opening weekend. The strike price is H$90, and the call (TW2CA) is soaring, almost at H$9. Lots of people are very optimistic about this one. The put (TW2PU) reflects the same sentiment, dropping below IPO. There's a Holiday Warrant (HWTW2), with a strike price of H$220. That's in the clouds, too, at H$20. The CX option is, of course, higher than the stock, at H$273. It's only at 53% on RT at this point, but who cares? It's going out on a bazillion - sorry, only 4,000+ - screens. The price on cantorexchange.com, however, is below the price on HSX; it's at $245. That's unusual. I'm going to watch this carefully, but I am thinking that $90 million is optimistic for this opening weekend. The fans of the series are fanatical, but this is limited to one segment of the population. I just don't see a lot of guys going to this movie. An $80 million opening weekend would still make it a smashing success.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Holiday Warrant: Long

CX on HSX: Short

Cantor: Short

'New Moon' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Wow, I don't think I have ever been so wrong on an HSX prediction. New Moon didn't just open above $90 million - it grossed almost that much on its opening day. It cleared $140 million. Never underestimate the power of teenage girls! I got everything except the holiday warrant wrong. Fortunately, I caught my mistake early, and reversed position on Cantor. I wasn't soon enough to reverse my position on HSX, but at least I made money somewhere. I did get everything right about The Blind Side, so the weekend wasn't a total wash. That did extremely well, clearing $34 million, and adjusting up by H$53. Nicely done, Ms. Bullock. Planet 51 didn't do all that well, only pulling in $12 million, and adjusting down by H$4. I was wrong on the stock, but right about the call and put. It's too early to tell if I got the CX derivative or the Cantor stock right. It is possible to make a judgment about the other two movies and their CX/Cantor securities - I was right about Blind Side, wrong about TWLI2. So I got 8 right and 6 wrong, but I got the big one wrong. I will never live this one down. But I learned from it!

November 13, 2009: Pirate Radio, 2012

Just two movies coming out wide this weekend, one big one, one small one.

The big one is 2012 (2012S, the S standing for "Sony," the studio that made it), even though it's still 2009. The Mayan calendar supposedly ends in 20012. Some people think that means that the world will end on December 21 of that year, although I find this rather doubtful, given that no other religion has this belief. The Mayans, who lived a few centuries ago, had a calendar that reached way into the future; 2012 was just the end of the cycle, like a speedometer in a car turning over. But apparently lots of people find comfort in the certainty of absolute doom. The trailer is decent, with John Cusack and Amanda Peet earning big paychecks by looking terrified. The stock has been extremely volatile, gyrating wildly over the last few months. It's currently at H$152, up for the day and not far from the high of H$166. That's an opening weekend of $56 million. It's going out on 3,000+ screens, or possibly 4,000+ screens. A lot, anyways. Critics are not impressed, as expected, with only 36% giving it a fresh rating on rottentomatoes.com. Strike price is H$60, which is a good price, but higher than the stock. Call (201CA) is above H$3, but that's down from almost H$5. The put (201PU), meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction, and is heading towards H$5. It's lower on cantorexchange.com than on HSX, which is not a good sign; it's trading around $135. I don't think it's going to be all that special.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

The small movie opening this weekend is Pirate Radio (PRADO), the true story of a group of rebel DJs who ran a radio station from a boat just off the coast of England in 1966. Personally, I preferred the original title, "The Boat That Rocked," although this one works, as well. I love the fact that it's a true story. The stock has been dropping, and is down to H$14. Strike price is at the bare minimum H$5, and the call (PADCA) is optimistically trading near H$3. The put (PADPU) is not far behind, at H$2 and a half. It's only going out on 900 screens, but you can bet that those are 900 well-chosen screens. Critics like it, although they aren't wildly enthusiastic, with 71% fresh on RT. It's trading at roughly the same price on cantorexchange.com. But Baby Boomers cannot get enough of themselves, particularly when they are nostalgic about their youthful rebellion and the attendant soundtrack.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Wrong on all counts this weekend, as 2012 turned out to be a smash, and Pirate Radio sank like a rock (pun intended). I was investing strictly on my personal taste, not always a good idea. 2012 made $65 million, while PRADO made less than $3 million. I forgot that I find 6o's nostalgia incredibly stale. But it got a B+ from users on Yahoo! Movies, so I am going to hold it long to delist, working on the theory that older moviegoers - i.e., Baby Boomers - will hear good word of mouth, and will see it after the opening weekend. That's the hope.

November 6, 2009: The Fourth Kind of Men Stare at Christmas Carols and Goats

We're back to a normal release schedule this week. We're also at the beginning of the holiday season, which means three things: blockbusters, Oscar-bait movies, and Holiday Warrants on HSX.

First up this week is "The Fourth Kind," (4KIND) about alien abductions. Looks good, could be interesting. Stock has been rocketing up, but is down H$3 today to H$30. Call (4KICA) is doing well against a H$10 strike price, although the put (4KIPU) is also doing reasonably well. It's going out on 2,450 screens, not a bad release. Critics are not impressed. I don't think there's a lot of room on the upside, but there's not much danger on the downside. Go with the flow.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

'Fourth Kind' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Cameron Diaz stares in a thrilled called "The Box," (THBOX) about a box that does strange things. The stock is tanking. I like Cameron Diaz, but not enough to see her in a cheesy movie about some bizarre piece of squareness. The call (BOXCA) is optimistically above the IPO price, but the strike price is H$10, so the call, at H$2 and change, predicts an opening weekend around $12 million, while the stock, at H$21, is suggesting something more along the lines of $7-$8 million. The put (BOXPU) is more sensibly also above H$2. Critics are mixed, with 54% on rottentomatoes.com. I shorted this on CantorExchange.com several weeks ago. Guess what I suggest you do today.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

<br/><a href="http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&vid=89c3732c-0168-404b-9c98-a6bc6dc0a5e8" target="_new" title="&#39;The Box&#39; Trailer">Video: &#39;The Box&#39; Trailer</a>

Easily the biggest release this weekend, and one of the biggest of the year, is A Christmas Carol (CAROL), a Walt Disney production of a Robert Zemeckis film, starring Jim Carrey. Oh, and by the way, it's by the classic by some guy named Charles Dickens. I like Robert Zemeckis, I think he's made some great movies, but I also think he is getting carried away with the technology on this one. The trailer looks amazing, with a motion-captured Carrey flying around London. Looks amazing, feels cold. Doesn't feel charming, which is supposed to be the point of the story. Stock is up today, but has been sinking of late. I expect that trend to continue. The call (ACCCA) is close to H$3, but has been dropping. It's against a H$45 strike price. I think $30 is more reasonable. The put (ACCPU), meanwhile, is rising. Critics are sort of in favor of it, with a barely fresh (61%) rating on RT. I short this on Cantor, too. It's going out on a bazillion screens, but I don't feel the love.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

'Christmas Carol' Teaser Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

In a great counterprogramming move, we have The Men Who Stare At Goats (MGOAT), about a US Army program to train psychic spies. Supposedly it's based on a true story. I am very much looking forward to this. Not sure how many people are, because it's really not a conventional movie. But boy do we need that in this movie season. Stock is down slightly, but has been rising steadily, and is in the mid-H$30's. The call (MGOCA) is a shade optimistically trading around H$3, against a H$15 strike price. That's possible, if a little unlikely. Given the uncertainty of this movie, considering it fits in the oddball-black-comedy genre, the put (MGOPU) is also flying high, around H$2 and change. It's going out on 2,200 screens, a good release for a movie like this. Critics are, again, just barely feeling the love - it's just barely fresh, at 60% on RT. Sounds like it's not as great as it could be, but still entertaining. This is one time I am going with my sense of taste and hunger for a smart, funny movie.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Long

'Men Who Stare at Goats' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

It was a good weekend here at TEQP.HSX - I called just about everything right. The only stock to come in above the strike price was 4KIND, which bagged $12 million. THBOX actually adjusted up, but it was so far down it didn't have much room to go down. I got the options right there. I got the stock wrong, but it only adjusted up by H$2, so it was basically a wash. MGOAT also adjust up, again just barely, by H$3. It missed the strike price, but not by much. I clearly made a mistake with my prediction for the put, because the call and put can't both be long. But I am going to go with my mistake. So I got the call wrong, and the put right. I nailed CAROL, within $1 million. I also nailed THBOX, even more precisely, but the margin of error is much greater with a stock like CAROL. I just don't think audiences are ready for a Christmas movie this far in advance of the holiday itself. Most people aren't even thinking of Thanksgiving yet! So I got 10 out of 12 right, and on the most important one, I bet against the market, and scored big. Like I said, a good weekend.

October 28: Michael Jackson's This Is It

There's only one movie opening this week, and it opened on Wednesday: Michael Jackson's This Is It (JACKO). So I missed it, since today is Thursday. C'est la vie. It closed at H$123, which seems very high, since it is only going to be showing for two weeks (although that could be extended). Strike price is H$35, and the call (TIICA) was through the roof at close, at H$7.85, while the put (TIIPU) was sinking, down to H$1.22. I hope everyone had this long!

Note, however, that it has been dropping on Cantor Exchange. It was around $150 a few days ago, now it's back down to the HSX price. It's down $14 today, so reality may be setting in. Then again, it may be incredibly cheap.

Here's the trailer.

Update Tuesday morning: I had technical problems with my Internet connection over the weekend, so I couldn't update. I was decidedly undecided about This Is It. I had a feeling the stock was way overpriced, because of the hype surrounding him, but I wasn't sure, because this is such an unusual situation. Should have been a little more skeptical: it only did $21 million this weekend, nowhere near $35. I should have remembered the question I ask about movies with high prices: what are the odds that it will go up from here? The odds of it adjusting up were not as good as the odds of it adjusting down. Yet another lesson learned.

October 23, 2009: Astro Boy, Amelia, Saw 6, and Cirque du Freak

A nice broad range of movies this weekend, although nothing I am all that excited about for myself.

First up is Astro Boy, (ASBOY) based on a Japanese cartoon. I know next to nothing about this cartoon. I'd never heard about it before. I haven't seen any marketing besides the trailer, but since I am several steps removed from the target demo, that is not surprising. What I do know is that the stock is tanking. It reached a high of H$57 earlier this year, was at H$57 earlier this month, and is currently down to H$32. That's a precipitous drop. So this boy can fly - and that's special because . . . ? I also just noticed that the IPO date was Oct. 11, 1999. So this stock has been around for ten years. Talk about development hell. Strike price is H$15, very high for this stock price. Call (ASBCA) is at H$2.65 and dropping, while the put (ASBPU) is going the opposite direction, and is at H$2.52 . It's going out of 3,000 screens, but I don't think that's going to do much good. It's well with critics, with a 70% rating on rottentomatoes.com, so that is something to consider. So it might surprise on the upside, but I doubt it. It is trading very differently on cantorexchange.com, and that is a strong counterindicator. But I would be surprised if it does more than $12 million.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Astro Boy' Trailer

Cirque du Freak is another movie based on a popular children's movie, and, like Astro Boy, I've never heard of it. Also like Astro Boy, the stock (VAMPA) is tanking, down from a recent high of H$41 to H$22. The strike price is H$10, which is a little more reasonable, and the call (VAMCA) is trading high, almost at H$3. The put (VAMPU), however is also above H$2, although only about a quarter above. It's going out on 2,700+ screens, but the critics are savaging it, with only 25% on RT. It's marginally higher on Cantor, but only about $30. That sounds realistic. Vampire fans have lots of material to choose from these days. I think $9-10 million is about right.

Stock: Long, but only because it's down so far already

Call: Short

Put: Short

Saw 6 (SAW6) is the latest entry in this particular horror franchise. Every other studio must have a lot of respect for Lionsgate, because most of them released their other horror movies well before this one. Stock is at H$71, near its high. Strike price is at H$30, which is about right for this franchise - that's where several of the last of these movies have debuted. But the call (SA6CA) is above H$3. That doesn't sound right, because franchises like this eventually wear out their welcome. The put (SA6PU) is also going up, aiming at H$3. I'm sure it's going out on lots of screens. Yep, 3,000+. But it also has competition; Paranormal Activity is still at the beginning of its hot streak, and that could take lots of business from this movie. I have no idea what critics think of it, because there are no reviews on RT. That would be because it hasn't been screened for critics. Never a good sign, although it probably doesn't matter much this time around. This is a twist: the price on Cantor is way below the price on HSX. That's different. It's around $60 on Cantor. So HSX is predicting $26 million, Cantor around $22 million. I'm thinking somewhere around $22-25 million.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

To round out the weekend, there's the heartwarming tale of Amelia Earhart, "Amelia" (AMELA). The stock is tanking, it's down to H$18, from a high of $42, and the critics are not impressed (30% on RT). Strike price is H$10, with the call (AMECA) barely over a buck, and the put (AMEPU) is soaring, like the legendary aviator herself. It's only going out on 800 screens. It's at roughly the same price on Cantor, in the low $20's. But I think all those signs are wrong. This is one time I am betting strongly against the market. This is the second biopic of a famous 20th century woman, played by a multiple-Oscar winning actress, this year. The other was Meryl Streep in Julia & Julia. That was a solid movie, although I didn't care for the part with Julie Powell; I though it was very badly written. That did quite well, and it may be a better movie than this one. But for all her charm and sense of adventure, Julia Child was still playing around in the kitchen. Amelia Earhart took risks that no other woman had ever taken. In terms of an inspiring story, she has few equals. I think Hillary Swank is perfectly cast. There are people out there who will see this movie, and not another movie for months. It doesn't really matter how good it is; it just has to be decent. It may very well be a maudlin tearjerker. But it is also a one-of-a-kind movie. It's the only movie about her that I know of. So I am going all in.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Amelia' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Another interesting weekend at the box office. I got a couple of things right: I nailed ASBOY ($7 million) and SAW6 ($14 million), getting all three right. Both of those adjusted down. I was wrong about VAMPA ($6 million) and AMELA ($4 million), because both of those adjusted down, as well. I was right about VAMPA's call, and that put me above .500 for the weekend - I got 7 out of the 12. Most fortunately, I got the big one right - SAW6 only pulled in $14 million, and adjusted down by H$30.

There were a couple of great lessons learned this weekend. First, the quality of a film really does matter - AMELA got bad reviews, and that was reflected in the box office. I'm not a big fan of Mira Nair, and I should have taken that into account. Second, this whole business of "branding" movies, i.e., making movies either as part of a franchise or based on other works, is not going so well. Three of the four movies this weekend fit that definition. SAW6 is, obviously a sequel. ASBOY is based on a decades-old cartoon. VAMPA is based on a series of kids' books. The fourth movie, meanwhile, is based on a famous person's life. In other words, there is not an original idea among the four. The one movie that was based on an original idea - PNACT - swamped them all, taking $22 million. I've said it before, and I will say it again: the best way to make money in the movie business is to make a good movie. Period. End of story.

Another lesson, more of a reminder, really, for me, was that each movie has to be considered mostly on its own merits. I have to put myself in the shoes of a hypothetical moviegoer - would I pay $10 to see this movie?

The very last lesson from this weekend is that screen counts count - AMELA only opened on 800 screens, which I am sure depressed the box office. It was also not a strong sign from the studio.

October 16, 2009: Law Abiding Paranormal Stepfather Goes Where The Wild Things Are

We've got a solid diversity of movies this week. An action thriller, a couple of horrors/thrillers, and one kid's movie with monsters. So no comedies.

Law Abiding Citizen (LATCZ) stars Jamie Foxx as an assistant DA and Gerard Butler as a man bent on vengeance after the justice system lets him down. Nice to see the white guy as the bad one. Foxx and Butler have both been in good and bad movies, and both are nominally good box office draws. It's directed by F. Gary Gray, a solid guy. Trailer looks good. Stock has been mostly up, but is retreating. It's at H$36, off from a high of H$47. The strike price is H$15, which looks a smidgen unrealistic, but the call (LACCA) is up H$3, so there's a chunk of optimism there. The put (LACPU) is below H$2, so the signals are in sync there. It's in the high $40's on the Cantor Exchange, which is a good sign. It's going to be interesting to see which is right - HSX or Cantor. It's going out on about 2,700 screens, not the widest release, but not bad. It's too early to get a good critical read. The signs are mostly positive.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Law Abiding Citizen' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

The first horror movie of the week is the more "normal" one, at least in terms of production and distribution. Stepfather (STPFT) looks like a decent proposition, a new addition to the family who isn't really Mr. Nice Guy. I find it scary, but I'm not a good judge of these things. The stock has never been very high, and has been drifting lower, topping out at H$22 and currently about H$17. That strikes me as very low. Strike price is H$10, which may have been a shade high, but H$5 would have been ridiculously low. Call (SPFCA) has been plummeting, and is barely above a buck. That makes sense, because this does not look like a $10 million opening weekend movie. Put (SPFPU) is rising, and may hit H$3. It should also be going out on about 2,700 screens. No reviews yet. Traders on Cantor are, again, a little more optimistic; it's above $20 there. I think this is underestimated by the market, and I'm not sure why. I think there's more potential on the upside than the downside.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

'Stepfather' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

The next movie is already the most profitable movie of the year, and will easily be one of the most profitable ever made, measured by return on investment. It was made for $11,000. Yes, for the cost of a decent used car. Paranormal Activity (PNACT) is taking the country by storm. Stock is at H$44, and has been going straight up. There are no derivatives, and it is not listed on Cantor. Which is a bummer, because I think it would be a great opportunity to make some serious cash. We're not really quite sure how many theaters it's expanding to, because the studio, Paramount, is asking fans to ask for it. My guess is that it will have an IPO (or ICO) on Cantor when it hits 650 screens, and they don't know if it will hit that many. It's at 85% on rottentomatoes.com. One note: it will adjust at previous box office + 3.0 x this weekend. Previous box office is about $9 million. Subtract that from H$44, you get H$35, which means that it has to do about $10 million. Guess what my call is.

Stock: Long

@ Yahoo! Video

And there's Where The Wild Things Are, one of the most highly anticipated movies of the year, based on the Maurice Sendak book. The stock (WILD) has exhibited the classic signs of hype and backlash; it marched steadily up to almost H$130, but has crashed badly in the last couple of weeks, down to the mid-H$90's. That's a bit of a recovery from H$89. The strike price is H$35, with the call (WILCA) above H$4. H$96 predicts a $35 million opening, so the call is a shade more optimistic than the stock, but not by much. The put (WILPU) is behaving as expected, dropping to below H$2. Traders on Cantor are much more optimistic, and it is at $115. It's the widest release of this week, on 3,500+ screens. Critics are mostly happy, with 67% approval on rottentomatoes.com, and many are absolutely in love with it. I'm not captivated - I'm not feeling the love from the trailer. But I don't want to bet against this kind of hype.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

@ Yahoo! Video

Update Sunday night: I had a moderately good weekend; I got three out of four stocks right but I only got 3 out of the 6 options right. My thinking on WILD could have been better - there was more potential on the downside than the upside. It did $32 million, which was very good, but still sort of what the market was predicting. $30 million was much more possible than $40 million.

The contrast between HSX and Cantor Exchange was interesting this weekend. HSX was closer on WILD, even though it was off. WILD had been dropping, and that trend was right. On Cantor, however, WILD exploded upwards; I shorted it at $115.25. Feeling really good about that right now. However, HSX was wrong STPFT and LACTZ; both had been drifting steadily down, but adjusted dramatically up, LACTZ by H$25, and STPFT by H$18. But both were trending up on Cantor by Friday, and the difference between HSX and Cantor was dramatic; LACTZ was trading in the $40's on Friday, while it halted at H$32. That's a 30% difference. STPFT also never dropped very low on Cantor, and was nowhere nearly as low as it was on HSX. PNACT

So Cantor was better on the stocks that went up (LACTZ, STPFT), but HSX was better on the one stock that went down (WILD). Interesting to note that. That was certainly true last week, when Couples Retreat adjusted up strongly, which HSX missed completely (as did I).

October 9, 2009: Couples Retreat

There is only one movie opening wide this weekend, and I have no idea why it has no competition, because if I were a studio execuctive, I would sure as heck counterprogram against this. It's "Couples Retreat," (CPLRT), starring Vince Vaughn, a couple of his buddies, and some cute women who look good in bikinis. I do not understand the appeal of this movie, and I understand the price of the stock even less. It's been floating above H$80 for a couple of weeks. That's a $30 million opening weekend. I just don't buy that. The price has been dropping; it's at H$75, down from H$86. The strike price is right on the money, at least given the recent price of the stock, at H$30. The call (CPLCA) is at H$2 and change, although it is dropping. Makes sense given the stock price, but I have no idea why anyone would go long on the call. This does not look like a $35 million movie. The put (CPLPU) is rising, coming close to H$3, which makes more sense.

I just don't sense anything original about this movie. It looks like a frat boy comedy for adults. Which strikes me as a contradiction. It's opening on 3,000 screens - not surprising, particularly given the lack of competition. Boxofficemojo.com's Derby predicts $26 million, and I think that's a little high. It's at 8% on rottentomatoes.com, so apparently critics agree with me.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

'Couples Retreat' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Update Monday morning: OK, I found out why there was no counterprogramming against this movie: it was much more popular than I was expecting. I mentioned this to a friend, with a perplexed expression on my face, and he had a two-word answer: "date movie." Which suddenly explained it: couples could go see this. The men were attracted by the women in bikinis, and the women were attracted by the idea of going to see a movie about relationships. So it opened with more than $35 million, and adjusted up. Weekly opportunities for more humility, that's what HSX offers.

I did learn something very interesting this weekend: the price of this movie on cantorexchange.com was very different than it was on HSX. It halted at H$69 on HSX on Friday, but it was trading about 20 points higher, in the high 80's, on Cantor Exchange. I shorted it on Cantor, thinking that I was taking advantage of a great opportunity for arbitrage. But the price on Cantor, even though it was much more thinly traded, was actually much more accurate. I guess people playing with semi-real money do better research, and have a better idea of what they are doing, than people playing a game. At least that was the case this weekend.

October 2, 2009: The Invention of Lying, Whip It, Zombieland

We have three comedies this weekend, three rather different comedies, and not a family film among them.

First up is The Invention of Lying (INVLY), in which Ricky Gervais plays a man who lives in a world where everyone always tells the truth. He, however, learns how to lie, which makes his life quite interesting. I like Gervais, and I like Jennifer Garner, the romantic object of his affection, but boy is this stock not doing well. It's down from a high of H$48 to H$29 today. HSX set the strike price at H$15, which was reasonable a couple of weeks ago. Now it's just depressing. But this is also a great opportunity to make some easy money off the options. The call (ILYCA) is below a buck, and down it will continue to go - the stock is predicting somewhere around $10 million this weekend, nowhere near $15 million. The put (ILYPU) is at H$3, and even that might be cheap. It's going out on 1,700 screens, which is not bad, but not a very wide release. That means the studio doesn't have blowout expectations. Critics like it; it's at 61% on rottentomatoes.com. I have a feeling the stock drop was the result of serious overhyping. This price feels much more realistic. What I like about it is that it's a very original idea. One problem I have is that it feels very much like our world, except that everybody always tells the truth. But if it was always that way, everyone would have adapted appropriately, and a large part of the comedy seems to come from Gervais' character surprise at some of the truths that he is being told. I am cautiously optimistic that it will be a pleasant surprise on the upside. But even at $10-12 million, the strike price is still ridiculous.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Invention of Lying' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Drew Barrymore is putting all of her Hollywood experience to use in her directing debut, "Whip It" (WHIPT), about a teenage girl who joins a roller derby team. She's also co-starring, which is gutsy, but possibly a smart move. Stock price climbed quite nicely for a while, dropped for a few days, but is picking up today. High was H$34, and it's currently H$26. So not a terrible drop. It feels like a somewhat generic "rebellious-teenager-coming-of-age" movie, but every generation needs movies like this, and Drew Barrymore directing certainly fits well with the message. Of course, it might look generic to me because it doesn't really resonate with me. It's fairly narrowly targeted, but it's also very precisely targeted, and I ain't in this demographic. Strike price is a little more reasonably priced at H$10. Even so, the call (WHPCA) is sinking, down to H$1.35, while the put (WHPPU) is rising, within range of two and a half bucks. We have a disconnect here between the put and the stock price. The put suggests an opening of around $7.5 million, while the stock suggests an opening closer to $10 million. It's going out on 2,100 screens, a good release for a movie that is somewhere between a good indie and a studio movie. It's being released by Fox Searchlight, so this makes sense. It's at 80% on rottentomatoes.com, so it's probably actually a good movie. Drew Barrymore could have chosen just about any script for her directing debut. The fact that she chose this one is a healthy sign.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Whip It' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Now we come to the movie with the big guns this weekend, and I do mean big guns. Zombieland (ZMBLN) is about zombies taking over the world, and the few remaining normal people who have to somehow survive. Not the most original plot, but the buzz is great, and the stock is doing quite well. It's currently at H$59, just barely down from a high of H$62. The strike price is H$20, which, in contrast to INVLY, feels rather on the low side. Call (ZMBCA) is solidly above H$3, while the put (ZMBPU) has floated down to the IPO price, H$2. I'm surprised the put is that high, but apparently some people don't like zombies. It's going out on 2,900 screens, a good wide release. Critics are enthusiastic, with an 84% rating on RT. It's an R-rated comedy, but so is The Hangover, and that made $45 million on its opening weekend, on the way to a worldwide gross of 10 times that. The stock and call are predicting $22-$24 million, but I think $30 million is not out of the question.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Zombieland' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Well this is a little embarrassing. I was right about Zombieland, if a shade optimstic; it grossed $25 million and adjusted up H$11, to H$67. On INVLY and WHIPT, however, I was totally off. Each adjusted down, although INVLY by H$4. It grossed $7.3 million. Drew Barrymore apparently does not have the star power I thot she did; WHIPT only picked up $4.8 million. Both were cheap productions, but both of those are disappointments.

I did learn a couple of valuable lessons this week. First, I checked out The Derby at boxofficemojo.com, to see what the predictions were there. I've played The Derby once or twice, but I haven't been that impressed with the box office predictions there in the past. But it would have been a good reality check this time around. The prediction for Zombieland was way off, at $16 million, but the prediction for Invention of Lying was almost perfect, and the number for Whip It, $8.9, was off, but still closer than what I was thinking. So I will have to check that on a routine basis.

The second, even more important lesson that I learned this week, was that I have a tendency to stick with whatever position I am holding, particularly if I am long a stock. I want to prove that I have been right all along. I didn't short INVLY when I should have, which was a couple of weeks ago. I also should have shorted WHIPT back then. I will have to be more aggressive about changing positions well ahead of opening weekend.

Quote Of The Day

"Basically ZOMBIELAND is Woody Allen and John Wayne paired together in a buddy road trip zombie apocalypse comedy."

Quint, on Ain't It Cool News, looking forward to Woody Harrelson whacking some zombies.

September 25, 2009: Surrogates, Fame, Pandorum

Three simple one-word titled movies this weekend. HSX is experiencing technical difficulties as I write this, so I'm not sure I will be able to comment on how prices are changing today. Regardless, here we go. This week we see a continuation of last week's trend, i.e. movies that are suffering from a post-summer hangover. Not a great sign.

First up, at least in terms of potential, is Surrogates (SUROG), a futuristic sci-fi movie about a world in which human beings interact with each other through surrogates, or robots. A terrorist wants them to reconnect through good old-fashioned human flesh. I think we've seen something like this before, at least vaguely. An allegedly utopian future which is actually dysfunctional, and robots are somehow the problem. Not high on my list. Bruce Willis stars in it, apparently because he didn't have anything better to do. Stock has dropped from a high of H$69 to the current H$51. It's opening on 2,700 screens, which is a good solid release, but not as wide as possible. There are only 2 reviews on rottentomatoes.com, which suggests that it has not been screened for critics. That's a tad surprising, and not good. The strike price is H$25 ,which is absurd for a stock with this recent history and this current price. Call (SRGCA) is H$1.22, and I am surprised it's that high, although that could be because trading is frozen. Put (SRGPU) is at H$3.56, and even that is cheap. Comingsoon.net predicts $22 million. I think that's a little high. but $20 is certainly possible. Maybe it's even a good movie. Maybe.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

SURROGATES trailer in HD


Next up is a remake of a movie that went on to become a TV show and then a theater production that toured the country for years. So there's some brand awareness for Fame (FAME). The idea is certainly a known quantity; it's an excuse to see lots of hot young people gossiping, crying, fighting, flirting, and occasionally singing, dancing and having a great time being highly talented young people in New York. This stock has dropped as well, from H$45 to H$35. Strike price is H$15, not unreasonable. Call (FMECA) is at H$2 and change, while the put (FMEPU) is below H$2. It's going out on 3,000+ screens, and the studio (MGM) desperately needs a hit. But the reviews are savage, with only 25% on rottentomatoes.com. I found this tidbit interesting: the screenwriter has disavowed the movie. Things that make you say "Whoa!" Haven't heard that in a long time. In 1981, when the original came out, there weren't a lot of opportunities to see young people signing and dancing and gossiping. We don't have much lack of that these days.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

(Video is not currently available, I'll post it when it is).

Finally, Pandorum (PNDRM) is another futuristic sci-fi thriller (I know, "futuristic sci-fi" is just about redundant) about two guys on a space ship. They make a discovery that "could threaten the existence of mankind." Of course they do. What other plot twists would even interest moviegoers these days? Once again, it's tanking, from H$30 to H$20. Strike price is H$10, and, again once again, what seemed reasonable three weeks ago is now ridiculous. It's not going to make $10 million this weekend. Traders have realized this; the call (PNDCA) is below a buck, while the put (PNDPU) is above H$3. It's on 2,400 screens this weekend, and I think many of those screens are going to be very empty. It's not being screened for critics, but that makes perfect sense for this one. There are no reviews on rottentomatoes.com. $6-$7 million.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Pandorum' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

The September Slump continues, all three stocks adjusted down. SUROG did $15 million; not bad, but not good for a Bruce Willis action movie. FAME managed $10 million, barely avoiding the "bomb" territory, but also avoiding the "hit" territory. PNDRM did land squarely in bombsville, with a grand total of $4.4 million. I got almost all of my predictions right (8 out of 9!), I missed SUROG, but that only adjusted down H$5, so not a big miss. The one thing I did miss, which was not good, was actually adjusting my positions on HSX to match my predictions; I had gone long on all of these before, and was planning to change that after my analysis. But HSX had technical trouble, and I was called in to work on Thursday night, so I didn't have a chance to change. I worked until 1:00 am, and then slept in past 10, so I didn't get to short everything Friday morning. Gotta pay more attention to that alarm clock on Friday mornings.