Week of October 8, 2010

It's been a long week, so this will be a short post. Also, none of the movies opening this week have really peaked my interest.

Easily the most interesting movie this weekend is Secretariat (SCTRT). It would be a very cheesy movie if it weren't based on a true story. Even I remember Secretariat, and I know nothing about horses. I also like Diane Lane, and of course John Malkovich is always fun to watch. The stock tanked for a while, but it's back up. Strike price is H$15, with the call doing quite well, and the put barely above IPO. Critics mostly like it, with a 61% rating on RT. What you see is what you get with this one. Disney does these well.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Look, it's another Katherine Heigl romantic comedy! Sigh. I like Katherine Heigl, I think she's drop-dead gorgeous and funny, and very charming, but Life As We Know It (LAWKI) is dropping like a rock. This is about the worst possible time for me to be even thinking about a movie with this premise.

Stock: Short

Call: Long

Put: Short

Look, it's another Wes Craven movie about teenagers being terrorized! I managed to watch the trailer, and even I wasn't that scared. Sorry, Wes, not going on this ride.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Short

Update Friday morning: all 3 are down, but Secretariat is only down slightly, while the other 2 are down at least H$2. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: It wasn't a good weekend for me, but that's not surprising, since I didn't spend a lot of time on these predictions. Secretariat adjusted down, Life as We Know It adjusted up slightly, and - at least I got one right - My Soul To Take dropped, pulling in all of $7 million. Note: It's Kind Of A Funny Story also opened wide, I guess, but I didn't predict it, because I didn't think it was opening wide. It dropped like a rock, but it's getting some good reviews.

October 1, 2010: Case 39, Let Me In, The Social Network

We have three movies opening this weekend, two horror movies and a movie about Facebook.

Renee Zellweger stars in Case 39 (CAS39), a horror movie about a case worker whose 39th case is a little girl who isn't quite as innocent as she seems. The trailer scares me, but since that isn't hard to do, that isn't saying much. I haven't heard much about this movie, haven't seen any marketing, but the stock is skyrocketing like I haven't seen in a long time. It's up several hundred percent in the last couple of months. THAT'S interesting. It's at H$12 and change on Friday morning. There aren't even options, that's how depressed the stock was until recently. RT score is 23%. So it looks like the studio had an opportunity to release it, so they grabbed it, hoping to make some money. I have a feeling it's had a great run, but the hype is peaking.

Stock: Short

Let Me In (LTRON) is a remake of a Swedish vampire movie called Let The Right One In, which apparently was quite successful. Halloween is right around the corner! This is not doing quite so well, and the stock is tanking, down to H$31. Strike price is H$15, which seems optimistic today, and the call (LTMNCA) is H$1.35. Put is at H$3.43. Critics are quite enthusiastic, with an 83% rating on RT. Now that some hype has been wiped out from the stock price, I see more potential on the upside than the downside. But I'm not optimistic that it's going to make the strike price.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

Then there's this little movie called The Social Network (SOCIL), about some dweeb who decided that he wanted to help people make friends. Such a good idea! We all know and love Facebook, don't we? But how many of us will love the movie about it? Stock rose quite steadily to the low-H$90's - high H$80's, which is where it is parked now. Strike price is nicely priced at H$30, and the call (SOCICA) has lots of friends, and H$3.43, while the put (SOCIPU) does not have quite as many friends, but is not doing too badly, either, at H$2.91. We have mixed signals here. Except from the critics, who are almost universally enthusiastic, raving and giving it a 97% rating on RT. This has the potential to be the kind of movie that feel like they have to see to be part of the cultural conversation.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Well, it wasn't a great weekend, either at the box office, or here at TEQP-HSX. The Social Network didn't soar quite as I expected, only picking up H$23 million, and adjusting down H$18. Case 39, the one movie I didn't think was going to do well, actually did marginally better than expected, with $5 million in the bank, and actually adjusted up a bit, to H$14. From the numbers being reported now, it did better than the other horror movie opening this weekend, Let Me In, which had a lot more hype. That only did about $5.3, and it adjusted down quite a bit, from H$30, to H$14, i.e. by more than half. Thank goodness I got the options right on that one, or I would have gotten everything wrong this weekend. This a humbling experience pretty much every week.

September 24, 2010: Wall Street, You Again, Legends of the Guardians

We're out of the post-summer slump, but not quite in Oscar season, so we have some maybe-sorta quality movies. At least this isn't a dumping-ground weekend.

Gordon Gekko, star of Wall Street, is back, and Michael Douglas looks like he's having a heck of a good time. There are a couple of young people starring with him, Shia Labeouf and Carey Mulligan, presumably to make this movie more appealing to young people who are more familiar with them than Oliver Stone's late-80's movie. The hype around this movie was, of course, a bit much, and it has, appropriately, tanked in the last few weeks, down to H$68, from H$90. Strike price is dead on, at H$25. Call is doing quite well, at H$4 and change, while the put is tanking, down to H$1 and a half. But we have a problem here: movement on the options is strongly up, but momentum on the stock is down. Critics are mostly positive, with a 56% rating on RT. However, that's not quite a fresh rating. I'm not quite sure what the point is here, and if I am confused, it's a fair bet other people are, as well. Watching the trailer, I'm sensing a lot of drama, but I don't know where it's going. I'm going to wait to see if this is worth watching. I'm betting against the market, but that's where the real money is.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Rarely have I seen a stock tank as sharply as You Again (UAGAN). This is sad, because it's a mostly female cast, with some great actresses, including Sigourney Weaver and Jamie Lee Curtis. And the great Betty White. It went from H$52 to H$36 in a week. Wow, that's bad. Strike price was set at H$20, which made perfect sense a couple of weeks ago. Today, it's absurd. Call is below a buck, and the put is aiming at H$5. Critics are brutal, with a 17% rating. Calls are not hard on this one.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

One movie I wasn't anticipating, but showed up on my radar when I saw lots of posters for it at the mall, is Legends of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole. The title sounds faintly ridiculous to me, but apparently it's based on a famous children's book or books. The stock isn't doing all that well, down to H$52, from H$67. It looks terribly cliched to me. Also, how exactly are we supposed to tell owls apart? They don't have particularly expressive faces. But I'm sure there's lots of great aerial combat. I was also surprised that it's directed by Zack Snyder, who made 300. Strike price is H$20, which is dead on. Call is doing well, up H$3, while the put is below a buck. Critics are not very enthusiastic, with only a 50% rating on RT. Maybe I'm not in a good mood (which is entirely possible), but I'm betting against the market again. I just don't see the appeal.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Update Friday afternoon: It's past halt time, so this is irrelevant, except as a matter of record. I reversed position on Wall Street, because it was up H$4.50, which is a major move. I didn't have time to reverse positions on the options, which may be a bad mistake. I also have a feeling that there is more potential for loss on the upside than on the downside.

Update Sunday night: Well, damn. My original instinct on Wall Street was right: it opened at only $19 million, dropping H$20. But I was right about the other two, and I was right about the options for Wall Street, but only because I didn't have time to reverse positions. So I was right about 8 out of 9, but wrong about the biggest one. Which I was right about originally.

September 17, 2010: Easy A, The Town, Devil

I'm doing an abbreviated post today, and a day late, because I am dealing with some family stuff that requires my attention.

Easy A: Up recently, but down today. Great reviews, at 82% on RT. Strike price is H$15, and the call is doing well, while the put is below a buck.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

The Town: Same as Easy A: Up recently, down today. Even better reviews, at 92%. You go, Ben Affleck! Same strike price, although there is more of a disconnect between the options and the stock.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Devil: Down quite a bit recently, not a great sign. From M. Night Shyamalan, although he didn't direct it, and his brand isn't what it once was. Same strike price, but with opposite movement.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

Alpha and Omega is dropping off a cliff. Same strike price again, although it's completely ludicrous. Looks utterly cliched.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

Update Sunday afternoon: Not a bad weekend, considering my abbreviated post. Ben Affleck did quite well, with The Town very nicely exceeding expectations, with $23.8 million, adjusting up almost H$20. Easy A did well, but not quite as well as expected, with $18 million, adjusting down about H$5. At least it beat the strike price. Devil and Alpha and Omega didn't, although the cartoon did slightly better than expected, and adjusted up a smidgen. That means that I got almost everything - 10 out of 12 - right.

September 10, 2010: Resident Evil

There's only one movie opening wide this weekend, and I don't have a lot of interest in it. Milla Jovovich continues her run of battling zombies etc. in Resident Evil: Afterlife, in 3D. Stock (RESE4) is doing well, up to H$64, just off the high of H$65. Strike price is H$25, or a stock price of about H$67. Call is doing particularly well, at H$4 and a half. That suggests an opening weekend of about $30 million, or a price of about H$80. That's a bit of a disjunction with the stock. Put is tanking, as expected, down to H$1 and change. I'm sure it's going out on a ridiculously wide release for a B movie, since it has the field to itself. It's also that rarest of creatures, an action-adventure franchise with a female heroine. There are only 3 reviews on rottentomatoes.com, which usually means that it was not screened for critics, which would be utterly unsurprising. I think the call is overpriced, but it looks like this franchise is not running out of steam. The fact that there are no other movies being released this weekend suggests that the other studios want to give this movie some leeway.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

Update Sunday night: Nailed it, which wasn't hard, but it feels good. It opened at $27.7 million, which was very close to the stock price. Not really much of a surprise, since this was a very known quantity. I was betting on it hitting the sweet spot between the call and put, and I was right about that. 3 for 3. Let the holiday/Oscar season begin!

September 3, 2010: Machete, Going the Distance

I missed predicting the opening for The American, because I was out of town. Oops! But there are still two movies left on which to opine. It's Labor Day weekend, but this doesn't feel like a great weekend for movies. Note: Because of the holiday, the adjusts will happen on Monday, and the multiplier will be 2.2, instead of 2.7. Doesn't change much, but always good to note that.

First up is Machete (MCHTE), from Robert Rodriguez, based on a trailer from that movie he did with Quentin Tarantino. Stock isn't doing that well, the price has dropped off a cliff, dropping from H$64 in late July to H$41 today. That is up from the low, but still, not a great sign. This is certainly Robriguez's bailiwick, cartoonish violence with a Mexican hero. Strike price was unfortunately set at H$20, which now looks somewhat on the wrong side of realistic. Call is, as expected, below the IPO price, while the put is way above the IPO. Critics are surprisingly positive, with a 69% rating on RT. The trailer is pretty much one long series of gunfights and explosions, but the ending is very funny. It's going out on 2,600 screens, not the widest release, but not a bad one either. Looks like the hype has been wrung out of the stock, and it looks like fun. Utterly formulaic, but fun. Rodriguez knows a thing or two about this kind of movie.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

Justin Long and Drew Barrymore star in Going the Distance (GDIST), a romcom about two people in a long distance relationship. I like both of them, I generally like romantic comedies, and I've even tried a long distance relationship (although it didn't work out), but this isn't grabbing me. Apparently many people are feeling the same - it has also dropped off a cliff, falling from H$45 to H$30. This one, however, doesn't seem to be recovering. Strike price was, again, optimistically set at H$15, and, again, that doesn't like it's going to happen. Call is sinking fast, while the put is, again, above H$3. Critics aren't very enthusiastic, with only a 38% rating on RT. It is going out on 3,000 screens, but that just provides a slight cushion.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Update Monday night: A pretty good weekend. I was off on Machete, it only brought in $14 million, and adjusted down, to H$30, from H$37. Got the options right on that one, tho, although that wasn't hard. I did nail GDIST, only cleared $8 million - on a four-day weekend! - and adjusted down, from H$32 to H$18. I like Drew Barrymore, but I have the feeling she might need to do something a little riskier or at least more interesting than a romantic comedy with a thin premise. Overall, I got 5 out of 6 right.

August 27, 2010: The Last Exorcism, Takers

It's the dog days of August, and that means slump time. Dumping time. Get rid of all your trash before the fall starts. So we're not real excited about the movies coming out tomorrow. But we're going to do our best to evaluate them.

The first shall be last, and the last shall be first. Thus the first movie up this week is The Last Exorcism (LXORC). It's a horror movie about a priest and an exorcism. Always good for some scares. The stars - such as they are - are total unknowns, as is the director. At least they are all total unknowns to me. Of course, this may be because I have zero interest in horror movies. I do have an interest in this stock, which has been climbing quite nicely and steadily. It's at H$40, down just a bit from the high of H$44. Strike price is H$10, which is absurdly low, given the stock price. So we have a situation once again where the options are not hard to predict. The call is at H$6 and change. Haven't seen that for a while! The put is at H$0.57. Haven't seen that in a while, either! It's going out on 2,800 screens, which is a good solid release. Critics are pleasantly surprised, with a 65% rating on rottentomatoes.com. All signs point to some good potential on the upside, like $14-$16 million.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Not quite as many people are taken by Takers (TAKER) the other big opening this weekend. This does have a cast of recognizable stars, but not really anyone who can open a movie. Didn't we just see Matt Dillon in a heist movie? Didn't we just see Zoe Saldana in a cheesy action movie? Stock is at H$28, and the strike price is, again, H$10, although this time that is dead-on. The call is slightly outpacing the stock - it's closing in on H$3. The put is closer to the stock, just below H$2. It's going out on 2,200 screens, so the studio is playing it a little safe. Critics are not enthused, with just a 29% approval on RT. Not expecting any surprises here, in either the movie itself, or the box office. I'm guessing it has some marginal room to move on the top, but I'm looking for the sweet spot on the options, right around the strike price, at $10 million.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

Both stocks are up this morning a shade over H$3. Looking good for the last week of August. Maintaining all positions.

Two nice surprises this weekend. Both movies opened at aboout $21 million, way above the strike prices, and, for Takers, way above the price predicted by the stock, although the momentum was clearly up. The only prediction that I missed was the call on Takers, but it's always very risky predicting the sweet spot. Otherwise a very good weekend.

August 20, 2010: Taking a break

I am taking a break from predicting movies this weekend, because it's the middle of August, which means that we are past summer blockbuster season, but not yet into the holiday/awards movies season. So the movies coming out this weekend are not terribly interesting. And, honestly, I just don't want to spend any more time than I absolutely have to about a movie called "Vampires Suck." When one of the more interesting movies opening on a weekend is a Jennifer Aniston romcom that is tanking badly, you know it's bad. Best of luck to Emma Thompson, but, since I don't have small children, I don't have much interest in Nanny McPhee. See you next week.

August 13th, 2010: Scott Pilgrim Eats, Prays, and Loves the Expendables

We have three very different movies opening on this Friday the 13th.

First up is The Expendables (XPNDB), just about the purest example of an action movie we've seen in a while. Absolutely no pretense here: this is about tough guys, fists, knives, guns and explosions. Plus the occasional damsel in distress and snarky put-down. Stock has been extremely volatile, currently resting at H$85, up 50 cents for the day, but down from a high of H$112. No gently sloping bell curve here, the chart looks like an EKG. The strike price for the options is H$25, which predicts a stock price of about H$67. So that seems low. Call is at H$5 and climbing, put is below a buck. It's going out on 3,200 screens. Critics aren't very excited, with only 44% on rottentomatoes.com, but that's not a surprise. No Blockbuster Warrant, probably because there isn't much time until the BWs delist. It's old-fashioned, but I'm sure it will have a certain appeal. Needs H$31.5 to meet the stock price. I'm optimistic, but I am going to keep an eye on this tomorrow.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Julia Roberts is back in a starring role in a movie that may or may not be a romantic comedy. It sure looks romantic, but I'm not sure it's a comedy. Eat Pray Love (ETPLV) is based on a book that neither I, nor, I suspect, many men have read. But I'm sure it's wonderful. I have no problems whatsoever with women's literature focusing on relationships, because relationships are very important. This stock has been climbing quite steadily. It's at H$62 today, but a bit, but not far from the high of H$66. Strike price is again H$25, which is just right. The call is just above H$2, while the put is closing in on H$3.50. Going out on 3,000 or so screens. Critics aren't very excited with it, just 42% giving their approval on RT. This movie is an interesting contrast with XPNDB: one features an ensemble cast, and is about as macho and testosterone driven as possible; one is about as woman-centric as possible, and stars just one woman. Not a coincidence that they are opening opposite each other. The one thing that confuses me is why a guy (Ryan Murphy) was chosen to direct this. I'm sure he's good, but this feels like it probably could have benefited from a woman's touch. Either way, I'm not betting against Julia Roberts, a huge bestseller, lots of gorgeous scenery, and some nice men being nice to a movie star. Critics are complaining that it's self-indulgent. I think that's the point.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Aiming, of course, at a completely different crowd, is Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, based on a comic I've never heard of. Michael Cera, who is defying all kinds of conventional wisdom by maintaining his status as a movie star, is Scott Pilgrim. He falls in love with a girl, but then has to battle her seven evil ex-boyfriends. Great premise, that's for damn sure. It's ridiculously stylized, with great graphics and CGI. Stock (SPILG) is not doing that well, crashing the last couple of weeks, down to H$54, from a high of H$81. Sounds like the hype got the better of a few people. Strike price is H$25, which doesn't seem very realistic any more. It's going out on 2,800 screens, a marginally more conservative release than the other two, but actually somewhat optimistic, given that it has sort of an indie feel. Critics are very impressed, with a 76% rating on RT. I am betting against the market, because at the end of the day, one thing matters above all else when making these predictions: is it a good movie?

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Update Sunday night: I took a risk on Scott Pilgrim, partially because it was getting great reviews, partially because I like the idea, and partially just for the hell of it. Now that this game is back to being irrelevant, what with that whole overreaction by the MPAA and their friends in Congress, I wanted to take a position and stick with it just for the hell of it. So that's now out of my system. At least I hope. The Expendables did as the market predicted, coming in well above the strike price, at $35 million, adjusting up to H$94. Nicely done, Mr. Stallone. Julia Roberts came in just under the strike price, but almost exactly at the stock price, earning $23 million, and adjusting up a grand total of 32 cents. Nicely done, HSX traders. Scott Pilgrim did better than most arthouse flicks, but not as well as the other movies this weekend, bringing in a grand total of $10.5 million, and adjusting down by H$21, from H$49 to H$28. Still, I'll hold that long to delist. Also going long to delist on Julia, but shorting Sly and Co., because that looks like a flash in the pan.

Week of August 6, 2010: The Other Guys Step Up

I am posting this late because my Internet service is down at home. So this is a Friday morning update, as well as a regular post. We have two movies opening this weekend, both with less-than-blockbuster expectations.

First up is Step Up 3D, third in the dance movie series. Full disclosure: I haven't seen any of these movies, and probably won't be seeing this one. Fuller disclosure: the director, Jon Chu, went to USC film school around the same time I did. I don't know him, but we have friends and acquaintances in common. Stock is doing reasonably well, at H$44, up H$1 and change today. That's below the high of H$50, but not much. There hasn't been much of a dropoff with this one, which is good. Strike price is H$15, which is exactly right. Call is at H$2 and a smidgen of change, so there's a bit of optimism there. Put is at exactly the same price, H$2.13, but is down, whereas the call is up. So we see some trending upwards. No Blockbuster Warrant, although I'm sure it will do much better than one of the movies that DID have a BW, Jonah Hex. Critics are not enthused, with only a 50% rating on RT, and even some of the positive reviews damning with faint praise. But this sounds like pretty much what you expect: an excuse for lots of hot young people to move in really exciting ways. It's going out on 2,400 screens, also exactly as expected. Fullest disclosure: the only person I know who saw the first one was my Mormon aunt in Utah (who has 8 grandchildren). She loved it. I'm not betting against my Mormon aunt or my fellow USC alum.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

The other movie opening this weekend is The Other Guys (OTHRG), starring Marky Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell as two bumbling cops. It's been done before, but it's also good to see Will Ferrell back doing what he does best. Stock is at H$86, down from a high of H$125 - yet another victim of overhype. Seen that a few times this year. It's down this morning, but only 50 cents. Strike price is H$30, also dead-on. Nice to see HSX nailing that. Call is at $3, heading towards H$4, while the put is below H$2 and heading farther south. Optimism in the options. Critics are quite enthusiastic, which is an excellent sign, with 79% approval on RT. It's going out on 3,600 screens, a great wide release. The only competition is Dinner For Schmucks, which does not seem to have as much momentum. I know many people who would love to see a great comedy, including me.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Update Sunday night: Just about nailed this one. Not quite, but close. The Other Guys came in at $35 million, and adjusted up H$10, to H$96. Step Up 3D brought in H$15.5 million, almost exactly the strike price. It adjusted down H$3, which is trivial. So I got all of the options right, although I would have made more money shorting the call on STUP3. Still, it was a good weekend.

July 30, 2010: Dinner for Cats & Dogs and Charlie St. Cloud

Three moderately interesting movies are opening this weekend, two comedies and one drama.

First up, let's go the family route. "Family" meaning, "for kids," because I can't see a lot people going on dates to Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore (CTND2). Just not seeing it. I imagine the CGI is good, and I'm sure it has a few laughs. But this smells formula. Stock is at H$45, down from a high of H$64. Looks like it's sinking. Strike price is H$20, which is not quite ridiculous (although I'm sure it made sense when it was set), but doesn't make a lot of sense. Call (CND2CA) is still above IPO, which is somewhat surprising. What is not surprising is that the put (CND2PU) is above H$3 and rising. What is also unsurprising is that critics are savaging it, with a 17% rating on RT. It's going out on 3,700 screens, the widest release of the weekend. That's better than I was expecting, but not terribly meaningful. Not hard to guess where this one is going. No Blockbuster Warrant, which is both unsurprising and kind of a relief.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Short

Next up is a tearjerker that I have even less interest in, although it looks reasonably well-done. Charlie St. Cloud (DLCSC) is based on the book The Death and Life of Charlie St. Cloud. Not terribly surprising that they took out the first part of that title for the movie. Zac Efron stars as a guy who feels guilty for the death of his little brother. Zac Efron has a strong appeal for a certain demographic, and he seems to be choosing good roles, but I'm not in that demographic. The stock is at H$34, down from a high of H$47. So, modest expectations that might be met, but I'm not optimistic. Strike price is H$20, which is ridiculous, because the price of the stock never came near justifying that kind of price. It was headed there, tho, so maybe that's understandable. We're seeing more rationality in the option prices here: Call (CSTCCA) is way below IPO, currently at 70 cents, while the put (CSTCPU) is at H$4 and rising. It's going out on 2,700 screens, a good release, but not quite blockbuster territory. Critics are heartfelt in their near-universal disparagement, with only 9% approving. Any reasons for optimism? Any at all? None as far as I can see.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Finally we have a movie for the above-15 set. Dinner for Schmucks (SHMUC) stars Paul Rudd as a corporate climber, and Steve Carell as a total dweeb who becomes his friend. And dinner companion. And potential victim. Certainly an interesting idea for a movie. Stock price is H$66, which sounds reasonable, but is down from H$94. Clearly a victim of its own hype. It bottomed out at H$55, so it's rebounding nicely. We have another H$20 strike price, but this one is realistic, and may even be low. Call (SHMUCA), of course, is doing well, above H$4. Put (SHMUPU), of course, is sinking, below IPO. Looks like a great role for Steve Carell. Almost 3,000 screens, nice and wide. Critics are somewhat lukewarm, with only a 54% rating on RT, and not a lot of love in the positive ones. That prompts a second look. The stock price suggests an opening weekend of $24 million, which I think is possible even if it's not a great movie. At the very least it's unlike any other movie currently out there. There's a good reason for optimism.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Update Friday morning: All three are moving in the direction I expected: Cats and Dogs continues to drop, down H$2.66 this morning, Zac Efron and his soulful eyes are down a little less than a buck, and the Schmuckfest is up H$3.50. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: Just about everything came in as predicted. Dinner for Schmucks came in at $23 million, which was a shade under the prediction of the stock price. It adjusted down H$5, from H$67 to H$62, which is trivial. Cats & Dogs and Charlie both came in at about $12 million, way, way below their strike prices. Both adjusted down. So, out of 9 predictions, I got 8 right. That's a good weekend at TEQP-HSX.

July 23, 2010: Salt and Ramona

We have two movies with female protagonists this weekend, but very different demographics.

First up, a kid's movie. Ramona and Beezus is based on the popular books, which I remember when I was knee-high to a blockbuster. I don't think I ever read them, but I remember the name. This is presumably an attempt to start a franchise. Not looking good, tho: the stock (RMONA) is tanking, down to H$27 or so, down from a high of H$44. Quite a precipitous drop, too, in just the last few days. Strike price was set at H$15, which is just a bit too optimistic, so the call (RMONCA) is dropping through the floor, below 50 cents. The put, of course, is well above the IPO, at H$4. Won't be hard to call those. Full disclosure: the director, Liz Allen, graduated from USC, and I've met her a couple of times. So I'm a smidgen biased. Critics are mostly enthusiastic, with a 59% rating on RT. One more positive review, and it's certified fresh! It's going out on a good number of screens, about 2,700. It needs $10 million to make the strike price. That's a PSA of $3,600. It's a very narrowly targeted demographic, but it's also a somewhat underserved demographic. There are always a certain number of family movies, but not a lot just for little girls. The challenge will be getting little boys to see it as well. My guess is that the stock has bottomed out, and that there is more potential on the upside than the downside. There isn't a Blockbuster Warrant.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Long

Angelina Jolie is back, in the kind of role that she does very well: action adventure. Yeah, baby! Salt (ESALT) looks good to me, although I am a big Angelina fan. Stock has been drifting lower, to H$92 today, down $3 today, and down from a high of H$110. Strike price was set at H$4o, which is now slightly out of whack with the stock price, which predicts an opening of $34. Call (SALTCA) is, predictably, dropping, below IPO. Put is doing really well, up to $4. All the signs so far are pointing in roughly the same direction. Strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant (BWSALT) is at H$100, a very reasonable price. This has not been dropping, and is at H$10. So that sign indicates marginally better prospects than the other securities. Critics are not particularly impressed, but they're not hating it, either, with a 56% rating on RT. Normal people seem to like it, with an A- so far on Yahoo! I'm more optimisitc than the market, I think there is more potential on the upside than the downside. I'm going out on a limb and betting that it will make the strike price, although not by much. I'm aiming for the sweet spot, between the call and put, right around H$40.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Shot
BW: Long

Update Sunday night: I was slightly off on the stock for Ramona et al., but otherwise I nailed it. Ramona and her sister and friends came in at $8 million, slightly below my expectation, but otherwise a decent showing. The options were a no-brainer. Salt did hit the sweet spot between the call and the put, right at $36.5 million. I would not be surprised if it adjusted up. The stock also adjusted up slightly, to H$98, from H$93. The Blockbuster Warrant for Salt is down by a hair, to H$9, but that's largely meaningless. Mostly a good weekend.

July 16, 2010: Inception, Standing Ovation

There are two movies opening tomorrow. One of them is one of the most highly anticipated movies of the year, featuring an A-list star, and an A-list director. The other is a movie that few people have ever heard of, starring total unknowns.

Let's get the wannabe out of the way first. Standing Ovation (STNOV) is about some tween girls who just want to sing and dance, and live their dream. I can't begin to imagine that the plot is remotely interesting, but I'm also years away from being remotely in touch with the target demographic, so what do I know? The trailer seems well-done, which is a plus. I researched the team on IMDb, and it's not a particularly impressive group, but the director and producer have worked together before, always a plus. Stock is at H$4.47, which might be a tad optimistic. There isn't much to go on here. No options, not a surprise. There are only two reviews on RT, both negative. Again, not much to go on. It is going out on 623 screens, which counts as a wide release (600 is the threshold for a wide release). Strike price indicates an opening weekend of $1.65 million. It would need a per screen average of about $2,600 to hit that. It needs about 330 people per screen. Assuming 15 screenings per theater over the course of this weekend (5 per day for 3 days), that means they need at least 22 people per screening. That doesn't sound impossible. I'm sure there are a few hundred thousand screaming teenage girls who can convince their parents to take them to see this.

Stock: Long

Now we come to the blockbuster, Inception (INCPT). Boy does this look interesting. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, and directed by Christopher Nolan, who should have a much bigger reputation than that M. Night guy. A movie based on an original idea! How cool is that?!? A movie with CGI that is actually justified by the plot. Wow. Stock has been rising pretty steadily, to a current H$191. That's down from a high of H$215, but that's not much of a drop. It's been incredibly volatile of late, down H$8 yesterday, up H$11 today. The price suggests an opening weekend of at least $70 million. Critics are very enthusiastic, with an 87% rating on RT. Strike price is H$75, with the call (INCPCA) not much above the IPO, at H$2.52 and sinking. The put (INCPPU) is doing quite well, almost at H$5. Strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant is H$200, and the warrant is well above IPO, at H$13. I am very optimistic about this movie, and I don't see much reason not to be. It may be a difficult concept to understand, but I think there are a fair number of people who will be thrilled to see a movie with an original plot. It's long, 2 1/2 hours, which might cut into the number of screenings, but it's also going out on 3,700+ screens.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

BW: Long

Update Friday morning: Inception is down H$5 this morning, but, considering how volatile it has been, that's not surprising. This seems to be one of those very polarizing movies - if you get it, you'll love it, but if you don't, you'll hate it. I'm guessing more people will get it, and they will really love it. Still going long. Standing Ovation is down H$0.39 today, which is about a 10% drop. That's not a great sign. The stock has had an interesting ride - it's spiked on several occasions, obviously on significant news - for example, actually getting a release date. But then it invariably drops. Not sure what that means, but it's interesting to note. But it still has minimal expectations. I'm not real confident, but still going long.

Update Sunday night: I don't know why I stayed long with a movie that obviously was drivel at best, but I did, and therefore got burned by Standing Ovation. I also was a little too optimistic about Inception - it cleared $60 million, below the strike price, and below the stock price. But the response has been so great that I don't mind losing money on it. Sorcerer's Apprentice basically bombed, coming in at only $17 million for the weekend, plus $7 million previous, so it adjusted down, from H$85 to H$54. A good weekend to be pessimistic, not a great weekend for me. But a good weekend for movies in general, apparently - a great movie made money, a bad movie bombed, and a piece of garbage was toasted. That works for me.

July 14: Sorcerer's Apprentice

One movie opening today, midweek, The Sorcerer's Apprentice (SORAP), hoping to beat "Inception" by at least a couple of days. Stock is at H$79, down from a high of H$127 - we've got another classic bell curve. Not looking good. Strike price for the options is H$35, with the call (SORACA) dropping, although still above IPO, and the put (SORAPU) at H$3 and a half and change. Not much optimism about that $35 million opening. Critics are not enthused, it's at 33% on RT. Ain't It Cool News gives what is probably a consensus view, that it's not bad, but not great. I think the stock has bottomed out, but it's only predicting a $29 million opening weekend. That feels about right. Blockbuster Warrant strike price is H$120, which is feeling unlikely.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

BW: Short

July 9, 2010: Despicable Predators

We only have two movies going wide this weekend, Despicable Me (DESME) and a reboot of Predators (PRED3), the action movie from the 80's.

Despicable Me looks like fun. Great title. Great trailer. Stock is at H$100, near the high of H$109. Strike price for the options is H$35, right on target. Call (DESMCA) is at H$4 and a half and rising, a good sign. Put (DESMPU) is below IPO and sinking, another good sign. It's going out on 3,400 screens, a good wide release. Critics are nicely positive, with an 87% rating on rottentomatoes.com. There isn't a CX derivative, since those are being cashed out. The strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant is H$120, with the price currently at H$11 and rising. All the signs are looking good, except for the fact that it's down today. But that could be just noise. I'm intrigued enough by the story to want to see it myself.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
BW: Long

Predator, OTOH, is not looking so good. Stock is at H$70. It's up H$2.50 as of this writing, but down from a high of H$114. That's not good. This also has a strike price of H$35, which is not terribly realistic. The call (PREDCA) is tanking, below H$1.50. The put (PREDPU), meanwhile, is soaring, aiming at H$5. Exactly the opposite of DESME. It's going out on 2,600 screens, not quite as many, but a decent release. Critics, somewhat surprisingly, are positive, with a 73% rating on RT. I know next to nothing about this, since I didn't see the original, and have no intention of ever doing so. But it sounds like the hype has been washed out of the stock price, and we are back in somewhat reasonable territory. Blockbuster Warrant strike price is H$100, and it's about H$2 and change. Which makes a fair amount of sense. So we're looking at about a $30 million opening weekend with this stock price. That would put it just ahead of The A-Team, and it sounds like this is a better movie.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Long
BW: Short

Update Friday morning: Despicable Me is doing well, up H$3 today, so I am maintaining those positions. However, Predators is down H$8.50, which prompts a rethink of holding the stock long. In a situation like this, I ask myself if there is any reason to bet against the market, and I can't think of one. Sequels and remakes and reboots are not doing well this summer. The biggest name in the cast is Adrien Brody. He's a fine actor, and he's probably fine in this movie, but he's not Arnold and I don't see him as a great lead in an action movie. Reversing position on the stock, shorting it.

Update Sunday afternoon: Despicable Me proved to be a solid performer, with $60 million this weekend, while Predators came in at $25 million. This is very similar to what happened with A-Team and Karate Kid: the family film outperformed expectations by a huge margin, while the action adventure movie came in either below expectations, or just barely above seriously diminished expectations.

I was wrong on the stock for PRED3, which technically adjusted up, but only by H$5. Otherwise I got all of the predictions right this weekend. Anyways, PRED3 is certainly a short to delist.

July 2, 2010: The Last Airbender

I missed out on something earlier this week - yet another Wednesday opening, this time one of the biggest movies of the year, Twilight: Eclipse. Maybe I missed it because I'm not in touch with the teenage girl demographic. Not that there's anything wrong with movies targeted at the teenage girl demographic! I'm just not that in touch with it. Fortunately, I am long on the stock, and it looks like it will be doing quite well. And supposedly it's a very good movie. That's nice.

Opening today (good thing I caught it!) is a movie that doesn't sound like it's very good: The Last Airbender (BENDR), from M. Night Shyamalan. Wow, is this thing tanking. Stock is currently at H$76, already down H$7 today, and down from a high of H$133. The strike price for Friday-Monday (since Monday is the officially-recognized 4th of July holiday for purposes of taking work off) is H$50. That's possible, particularly since it's for four days, but looking increasingly unlikely. The formula for the adjust is funky, Prev. BO + (Fri-Mon x 2.2). Still, the price of the stock and the strike price are completely out of whack. If it does make $50 million from Friday-Monday, plus, say, $5 million today, Thursday, it will adjust to $115 million (5 + (50 x 2.2)). That's H$50 above the current price of the stock. I don't think I have ever seen such a complete disconnect between the strike price and the price of the stock. Other traders have, of course, made similar calculations: the call (BENDCA) is at H$0.83, while the put (BENDPU) is at H$5 and climbing. Even at H$5, the put is a bargain - that puts the four-day weekend total at $45, which, with $5 million today, would put the adjust at H$95. Also seriously out of whack. The CX derivative, as usual, has farther to fall than the stock: it's at H$94. The strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant is H$120, which, I'm sure, sounded reasonable a couple of months ago. Not so much today. It's at H$4 and dropping.

The reason for all this negativity is not hard to figure out. It is, apparently, just an atrociously bad movie: it has a 5% rating on rottentomatoes.com. This is one of those movies whose entertainment value will primarily be derived from reading the bad reviews.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

BW: Short

Well, I was completely wrong on that one. It did slightly more than $50 million over the weekend, so it did make the strike price. I don't think I gave myself enough time, since I didn't realize until it was almost too late that it was opening on Thursday. Always a good idea to let my predictions simmer for a day or two. This time, I was a little rushed. I should have realized that the stock price was too low, and that there was more potential on the upside than the downside.

One other detail, that I have been thinking of, but not always conscious of: there are two kinds of moviegoers. There are people who are primarily attracted to the substance, i.e. plot, story, character, etc., and then there are people who are primarily attracted by the visuals. Critics are invariably in the former category, so they are particularly harsh on movies that don't work in terms of plot. But there will almost always be people in the audience who are more interested in the visuals, and who will experience the movie that way, overlooking plot holes or thin characterizations. This doesn't mean that they're superficial - it just means that their brains are wired that way. This sounds like it's great on the visuals part. So I ended up giving the critics too much weight. I usually take that into account, but the reviews were so savage I figured it would have more of an impact. I'm still short to delist - the user reviews on Yahoo! have been brutal.

June 25, 2010: Grown-Ups

There's only one movie opening tomorrow, Grown-Ups (GRWUP), starring a bunch of guys who are usually very funny. I, however, don't find the trailer all that exciting. The stock has followed the classic bell-curve of summer blockbusters, peaking about a month ago, and tanking since. It's at H$102, down from H$136. Strike price is H$40, which would predict a stock price of H$108. The call, predictably, is sliding, down to H$1.22. The put is heading north, above H$4. It's going out on 3,200 screens. The CX derivative has been just steadily dropping, and is currently about H$114. So that has room to drop as well. Strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant is H$120, which is feasible, but unlikely. That's at H$6.

It's at only 10% on rottentomatoes.com. I couldn't find any review of it on aintitcool.com, so maybe Harry Knowles is completely ignoring it. Which would not surprise me. I'm not sure what this is about, other than some guys getting together when they are in their 40's, and acting immature. This does not have zero appeal for me - it has less than that. I don't hate Adam Sandler, I think he plays well in his niche, he knows what he's good at, and I've enjoyed some of his movies. But please, someone make this movie go away.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

BW: Short

Update Friday morning: It's down H$6. Whoops. So much for that idea.

Update Sunday night: I guess the message of the weekend is: don't underestimate Adam Sandler. He brought in $40 million, basically what most of his movies have made. Guess the market read him wrong as well. He knows what he does well, and he sticks to that, for the most part. Works for him, isn't working for me at this point.

June 22, 2010: Knight and Day

Knight and Day (KNDAY) is opening today, a little unusually for a standard blockbuster, but we're going to go with it. I almost forgot about it, so I don't have a lot of time for analysis, but I don't think it needs or deserves much, easier.

I've been looking forward to this, because Tom Cruise seems to be having a good time, and he seems to be funny. That's kind of a nice change of pace, although he always seems to be having a good time, and he was very funny in Tropic of Thunder. Stock, however, has been tanking, down to H$82, from a high of H$136. The strike price is H$35, with the call at H$2. Yeah, that ain't gonna happen. The put is above H$5. There's some residual optimism in that call. The CX derivative also has some residual optimism, still above H$90. The Blockbuster Warrant IPOs tomorrow. Reviews on RT are middling at best, with 54% fresh, and the positive reviews lukewarm. I like Tom Cruise. He's one of the movie stars that I put in the "decent actor but amazing performer" category. I always feel like I am watching Tom Cruise - he doesn't disappear into the character. But he's usually at least interesting to watch. And I like Cameron Diaz. I'll probably see this in the theater. But in a summer where audiences are quickly getting tired of formulaic action movies, I don't see a lot of reason for optimism.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Blockbuster Warrant: Short, when it IPOs tomorrow.

Update Sunday night: Yep, it bombed.$20 million over the weekend, plus $7 million on Wednesday and Thursday. Not looking good for Mr. Cruise. Good thing he took a pay cut - supposedly he was paid $11 million upfront, rather than his usual $20 million. Doesn't look like he is going to get much of a percentage of the gross, either. Oh well. I'll probably still see it in the theaters.

June 18, 2010: Toy Story 3, Jonah Hex, Cyrus

We're settling in to summer, with a genuine blockbuster, a wannabe blockbuster that looks like it will be anything but, and a sort-of arthouse funky comedy.

First up, the blockbuster, Toy Story 3 (TOYS3). This is the franchise that started other trends - great movies from Pixar, computer animation, animated movies that look like they're for kids, but are really for adults. The anticipation is reflected in the stock price; it's $288, or about a $106 million opening. It's gone mostly up, quite steadily, although not quickly. There was buzz on this one for a long time. This isn't a holiday weekend, so there's no funky adjusting. It's not opening on a Thursday, although I am sure there will be midnight screenings tonight. The strike price is H$110, which is just about right, although just slightly higher than the stock price would indicate. The call (TOY3CA) is doing quite well, thank you very much, at H$5 and a half. The put, however, is also doing rather well, aiming at H$4. The CX derivative is at H$324, although it went through a very different trajectory, hitting H$358 before coming back down. Strike price for the blockbuster warrant (BWTOY3) is H$350. That's at $8 and change, so it's not busting out. The feeling I get is there is a lot of enthusiasm, and potential excitement, but also some caution. We've seen some bubbles burst of late. But we've also seen some surprises, notably last weekend, with The Karate Kid blowing away expectations. One of the cautionary tales was Shrek 4, although that should not have been that surprising, since the franchise was clearly wearing out its welcome, and the third movie was not that well received. Pixar hasn't really had a bad movie, or even a movie that was less than very well-received. This already has a 9.4 rating on IMDb, which is great. It has a virtually unheard-of 100% ratings on rottentomatoes.com. Unheard of, of course, except for the first two, which also have 100% ratings. So the two big questions of late: am I in a bubble? and Is there more potential on the upside or downside? would seem to be answered thusly: I seriously doubt I am in a bubble. The reputation of Pixar and these particular movies is very well-known. Extremely well-known. There isn't much downside. Shrek made $70 million, with mediocre reviews. About the only potential downside is that many members of the audience have severe sequelitis, but this is still a franchise with a reputation for originality. It's opening on 4,000+ screens. The studio is going wide, I'm going long.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX: Long

Blockbuster Warrant: Long

Next up is Jonah Hex (JOHEX). There are lots of reasons for uncertainty with this movie. It's based on a comic book that I have never heard of. I'm not clear on what, if any, superpowers the title character has. He is intentionally unattractive. The actor playing him is well-known and respected (Josh Brolin), but not in the opening-a-blockbuster-by-himself league. The hot actress (Megan Fox) may have already outlived her 15 minutes. The director, Jimmy Hayward, doesn't have much relevant experience, but he does have some good movies on his resume, ironically at Pixar. I find it strange that he was chosen to direct this, but I could be missing something. The stock is tanking, down to H$36 from H$103. That's really not good. The strike price is H$20, which, tragically, absurd by now. Call (JOHECA) is below H$1, while the put (JOHEPU) is above H$5. There are only 9 reviews on RT, but with that, it's at only 11%. CX derivative is at H$51, and I think it's that high only because it hasn't had enough time to drop. The strike price for the BW is H$80, which is just sad. It's at 19 cents, down 13 cents today. Almost makes you feel sorry for whoever still has it long. I can't find a single reason to be optimistic about this movie.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

BW: Short

Finally, we have the most intriguing movie of the weekend, at least from a box-office-potential perspective. Cyrus (CYRUS) is sort of a romantic comedy about a single woman, whose son interferes with her dating life. Sounds interesting. The trailer isn't the greatest - John C. Reilly plays a guy who seems a little socially awkward, but who ends up with Marisa Tomei. Jonah Hill plays her son, who proceeds to make life even more awkward. Could be brilliant, could be one of those movies that polarizes audiences. Stock is H$12, down from a high of H$22. Looks like the buzz has worn off a bit. There are no derivatives. It's doing quite well on RT, with an 82% rating. It's only opening on 4 screens this weekend, so it's obviously not adjusting. I'm going to call it anyways.

Stock: Short

Update Friday morning: Both stocks opening wide are moving in the direction I predicted: TOYS3 is up, while JOHEX is down, to H$30. If it wasn't so completely devoid of interesting qualities, I would suspect that would be a buy. But it's still an $11 million opening weekend, and there is some room between that number and zero. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: Mostly a positive weekend. Toy Story 3 came in at $109 million, almost exactly at the strike price. The stock technically adjusted down, but only H$5. Considering that it was at almost H$300, that's not a great variation. It's an obvious hold long to delist, Also technically, I was wrong on the options, although since it is so close to the strike price, I am going to wait for the final numbers tomorrow. I was right about the CX derivative, which adjusted down quite a bit. The BW is maintaining about the same price, so that's tough to call at this point.

I did nail JOHEX, which is apparently a God-awful piece of garbage. Hard to believe a movie with a strike price of H$20 came in at $5 million. I shorted it at H$79. It's currently at H$13, and I would bet it will delist around H$10. Made a fortune on that one.

Cyrus had a great weekend at its four theaters, so I am reversing position and going long on that one.

Update Monday night: Wow, that was close. Looks like it was a good call for me to wait until today to determine whether or not I was right about the TOYS3 calls. I was, in fact, right about both: it officially cleared $110.3 million, just barely above the strike price, right on the sweet spot. Ideally, it would have been perfect if I had shorted the call, but it cashed out on the plus side, so I'm all good.

June 11, 2010: The A-Team, The Karate Kid

We're going back to the 80's this weekend, with a movie based on a TV show from the Me Decade, and a remake of a classic from that era.

First up is The A-Team (ATEAM). Four Special Forces guys from the military (I'm not sure if we're supposed to know what branch of the military they are actually from) are convicted of a crime they didn't commit, so they go on the run and proceed to blow things up in the process of being cool. I have to admit that I am looking forward to this movie, regardless of how utterly nonsensical the plot turns out to be. If you look in the dictionary under "middle-aged white guy guilty pleasure," this would be right there. The stock has followed the classic wannabe-blockbuster bell curve, hitting H$149 before coming back down to earth - it's currently at H$100, or about a $37 million opening weekend. Strike price is $35, right on target, unlike last week's batch of mispriced options. Call (ATEACA) is at H$3, very much in sync with the stock price. Put (ATEAPU) is, however, also above H$3, so we have divided opinions in option-world. Critics aren't excited, with a 51% rating on rottentomatoes.com. The plot, I am sure, is largely irrelevant. But so was the plot in the original, as far as I can remember. The most memorable thing from that entire show's run was Mr. T's line "I pity the fool!" This is purely an exercise in style. It's going out to 3,500 theaters, but, more significantly, it doesn't have a lot of competition. CX derivative is at H$112, down from an absurd high of H$177. The strike price for the blockbuster warrant is H$120, a reasonable guess, but it's trading just above H$3, so not much optimism there. As an exercise in style over substance, it generates a lot of buzz, but not much deep affection. I would like to see it in the theater, but I won't be crushed if I don't. Time to ask the question: is there greater potential on the upside, or the downside? Looks like the answer is the downside - it might open above $35, but it's not looking likely. I'm more comfortable with something between $30 and $35.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Blockbuster Warrant: Short

Next we have The Karate Kid (KFKID), starring Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith, son of Will and Jada Pinkett-Smith. I have to admit that I have never seen the original (it's on the list), but I am familiar with the idea. I don't have a lot of interest, but apparently a fair number of other people do: the stock is at H$94, right near the high, although it is down H$2 today. That's about about a $34 million opening. Strike price is very close to that, H$35. Call (KKIDCA) is, however, illustrating that fine difference between $35 and $34; it's below the IPO, at H$1 and change. The put (KKIDPU) is heading in the opposite direction, well above H$4. The CX derivative, as most do, is dropping from a high price, in this case, to H$97, down from H$110. Strike price for the blockbuster warrant is H$100, also reasonable, and also looking possible, but barely: it's at H$4 and a half. Critics are surprisingly positive, with a 58% rating on RT. That's not much better than the rating for A-Team, but the reviews feel better. There's a reason to remake The A-Team: explosions are more fun on the big screen. I have heard many complaints about remakes and sequels; it's why I started The Original Ideas Fund. I have a strong gut instinct that this movie, even if it's good, will be a victim of remake fatigue. Much more potential on the downside, methinks, even if it's going out on 3,600 screens.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

BW: Short

Update Friday morning: It's not looking good for either of these releases. KFKID is down H$3.50, and ATEAM is down H$6.50. Fairly obvious what to do. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: Well, that was quite the surprise. KFKID opened with $56, ridiculously above expectations. The A-Team opened at $26 million, which was expected only insofar as I was predicting an adjustment downwards. So what the heck happened? Someone suggested that if you don't show many movies to a particular segment of the audience for a while, they will respond really well when something finally shows up that they might like. I wasn't aware that the family movie genre was lacking in product, but that sounds about as plausible as anything. Still open for suggestions.

My mistake this week was not paying attention to the trend line for KFKID, and lumping it in with ATEAM as an 80's retread. KFKID did NOT experience the bell curve, it was still on a strong trajectory up. Yet another lesson learned.

June 4, 2010: Get Him to the Greek, Killers, Marmaduke, Splice

We have a bumper crop of mildly interesting movies this weekend, but I don't have a lot of time, so I am going to bang through these fast.

Get Him to the Greek (GHGRK). I have zero interest in this film. It's tanking, currently at H$53, down from H$75. A $20 million opening is possible, although the strike price is H$25, with the call about H$1, and the put above H$4. CX derivative is H$60 and dropping. Reviews, however, are very good, with a 74% rating on RT. OK, I'm a little more interested.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Killers could be a great bad movie, but I'm not sure it could be a good movie. I love Katherine Heigl, I think she's incredibly gorgeous, but I'm not completely sold on her as an actress. And I am really not sold on Ashton Kutcher as an actor. But this looks like it could be fun. Stock (5KILR) is H$48, down from H$68, but up H$4 today, so it probably bottomed out. Strike price is the same at Greek, H$25, with the same results: call is dropping, below H$1, and the put is, again, above H$4. CX is also tanking. There are no reviews on RT, which means that it didn't screen for critics.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

I am utterly void of interest in Marmaduke (MARMA). From H$74 to H$45 - another slide. Another H$25 strike price, with the call barely above a quarter (H$0.31) and the put, again, above H$4. CX following same trajectory: H$74 to H$50. Only 3 reviews, so, also again, no critics' screening.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Splice (SPLIC) is the one movie this weekend with some potential to break out. Stock is at H$26, but that's near the high of H$30. Strike price is H$10, with the call aiming at H$3, and the put just barely above IPO. No CX derivative. We could have a winner here.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Update Friday morning: There are now enough reviews on RT to make a judgment about Marmaduke, and boy, it ain't pretty. 10%. That's right around complete bomb territory. Everything is down this morning, so maintaining the shorts on the dog movie and Killers looks easy. Splice is also down, although just a bit. It's had such a great run up, I'm not surprised that it's taken a hit. $10 million feels high for that movie, but it's going out on 2,400 screens, so I am going to take the risk that we will be pleasantly surprised. I'm also nervous about GHGRK, but the reviews are holding up. Maintaining all positions.

A middling weekend for a bunch of middling movies. My optimism for GHGRK was slightly misplaced; it opened at $17.4 million, adjust down just H$2, to H$47. Still, I was wrong on the stock. Killers opened below that, as expected, with $16.1 million. It actually adjusted up, albeit just barely, from H$42 to H$43. However, that's below where it was when I called shorting the stock, so I am going to give myself credit for that one. Marmaduke opened with $11 million, way, way below that H$25 strike price. Called that one perfectly. My nervousness about Splice turned out to be justified, it opened with $7.45 million. I got 11 out of 15 right, actually quite a nice record for the weekend, although I botched Splice. A large part of the reason for that record was the unfortunate strike prices, which made it easy to predict the options for 3 of the 4. My mistake on Greek and Splice was giving a little too much credit to some very insubstantial buzz. The average of the user reviews on Yahoo! for Splice is C+. OK, that sucks. The others are B to B+. Shorting all to delist.

May 28, 2010: Prince of Persia

Here we are, in the beginning of blockbuster season, and we have our first Jerry Bruckheimer extravaganza! How exciting. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (PRSIA), is based on a video game. That would be grounds for groaning, were it not for the fact that Mr. Bruckheimer also produced Pirates of the Caribbean, a great movie based on a Disney theme park ride. Still, the history of movies inspired by video games is not a glorious one. I would review that history, except that I'm not actually all that aware of it, and I'm not all that interested in doing the research. This does not look like a difficult movie to figure out. Stock is at H$94, down from H$141. That's what we call "tanking." The strike price is H$60, which predicts a stock price of $162. Wow, I can't remember a strike price as far out of sync with the stock price as this one. H$94 predicts an opening weekend of about $35 million. The CX derivative has been on pretty much a nosedive of late, dropping from H$176 to H$108 today. Somebody lost some money on that one.

I liked reading this line on the stock page: "A young prince finds a powerful artifact that has the power to destroy mankind through a massive sandstorm."

That's three cliches - "young prince," "powerful artifact" and power to destroy mankind" - in one sentence. I'm bored with the CGI just watching the trailer. I have no idea what the plot is, beyond some hot guy battles lots of bad guys, Ben Kingsley looks worried, and some hot woman trades some cool dialogue with aforementioned hot guy. Oh, almost forgot: the blockbuster warrant has a strike price of $120, and it's sinking fast, too, from H$12 to H$4, presumably on its way to oblivion.

I'm sure it's going out on lots of screens, again, I don't even want to do the research. It's scoring better with critics than I was expecting, with a 46% rating on RT. That, I can just about bet, is because it manages to beat absurdly low expectations. In other words, some people felt that it wasn't a complete waste. I am not finding out either way.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Blockbuster Warrant: Short

Update Friday morning: The stock is up H$3.50 this morning, at 9:30 am Pacific. It looks like it might beat those low expectations, and it is Memorial Day weekend. I am maintaining my positions, but buying 10,000 shares long, just in case.

Update Monday night: So hedging didn't work out, but otherwise I nailed this one. It opened with $37.7 million, not even within striking distance of the strike price. Adjusted down from H$101 to H$83.

May 27, 2010: Sex and the City 2

Sex and the City 2 (SATC2) is opening tomorrow, Thursday, so this post is just about that movie.

I'm actually not a bad person to be thinking about this movie, despite being a straight white male who doesn't have a girlfriend who desperately wants to see this. I did see the first movie, on opening night no less, with several friends. I liked it, and appreciated the franchise. I get it. I'm somewhat proud of the fact that I understand the appeal despite the fact that I do not find Sarah Jessica Parker all that appealing. I do have a lot respect for the fact that she's done wonders with this concept. And my sister absolutely loves SATC, and she's got very good taste.

For today, however, our concern is tomorrow. The stock is at H$146, down H$3 today, and down from a high of H$165. The adjust formula is complicated (previous B.O. + (2.2 x Fri-Mon)), both because of the Thursday opening, and the holiday weekend. Assuming a Thursday total of about $5 million, that stock price predicts a Friday-Monday total of $63 million. That's a chunk of change. The call (SEX2CA) is at H$4 and change, so there is a certain amount of optimism out there, while the put (SEX2PU) is above H$3. So there is a certain amount of pessimism, as well. The CX derivative is tanking, down from H$185 to H$155.

It's going out on about 3,500 screens, which translates to a PSA (per screen average) of $18,000. The original opened with $57 million, so the sequel would have to do better than the original. But the reviews are horrible - I would describe them as "savage," but I'm not sure that's harsh enough. It's at 15% on RT. I'm also deeply skeptical of the premise. Carrie and Big are married, and they're not that excited about it. And this is exciting why? The girls fly to Abu Dhabi for a good time. Is anyone besides me bothered by the fact that a movie called Sex and the City 2 takes place in the desert?

I know this is the female equivalent of an explosions-filled action adventure movie. But I also know that explosions-filled action adventure movies can totally bomb. This may be another milestone in the history of feminism: women can succeed as brilliantly as men. They can also fail as spectacularly as men.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Update Thursday morning: SATC2 is down almost H$7 this morning. It may bounce back a buck or two by the time it halts (it's currently 7:45 AM Pacific), but that's a really bad sign. Maintaining all positions.

Update Monday night: I was right all the way around on this one. It cleared $37 million over the 4-day weekend, plus $14 million on Thursday. That's a solid $51 million, but the stock dropped from H$141 to H$95. Looks like the critics were right.

March 21, 2010: Shrek and MacGruber

There are two movies opening this weekend, both comedies. One is pretty much a guaranteed blockbuster, the other is a product of Saturday Night Live.

Shrek 4evah (SHRK4) is finally here, and our beloved green ogre is finally bidding his adieus. It's been fun, green man! I like the way DreamWorks is handling this - they seem to be bowing out gracefully. They've had a great run, now it's time to say goodbye. The stock is trading at H$247, down from a high of H$265, but up H$4 and change today. Strike price is H$90, right on target, with the call (SHR4CA) trading nice and high around H$5. The put (SHR4PU) isn't doing too badly, either, however, aiming at H$3. The stock price indicates an opening of H$91, so the split on the options is understandable. The CX derivative hit a high of H$331, and has been dropping ever since, currently around H$280. It's going out on a bazillion or so screens. It's in 3D, which I almost forgot about, because it's just not that exciting. But that may help the BO. Critics are not that impressed, with only about half reasonably impressed, giving it a 50% rating on RT. I remember not being that impressed with the third one, so that may diminish the appeal of this one. Shrek 2 opened with $108 million, and Shrek 3 opened with $121 million. However, Shrek 3 did not make as much as Shrek 2, $322 million domestically versus $441 million. So we're on a downward trend, but that is taken into account with the stock. The director raises some concerns for me: Mike Mitchell's big movie on his resume is Deuce Bigolo: Male Gigolo. The writers haven't done all that much, either. That suggests that DreamWorks wasn't willing to spend the money for the best people. That's not good. I have no interest in seeing this, but I think there's some lingering goodwill. I think it will beat the lowered expectations. But I will be watching it closely.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX: Short

The other opening this week is MacGruber (MGRUB), a spinoff of the Saturday Night Live sketch. Stock is not doing well, currently at H$38, down from a high of H$49. The strike price is H$15. So we have one of those situations where HSX made a good guess about the strike price a couple of weeks ago, but it's now ridiculous. Call (MGRUCA) is below H$2, while the put (MGRUPU) is above H$3. CX derivative is at H$38, down from H$47 -so it has been moving in line with the stock. It's going out on 2,400 screens, not a bad release, but not ultrawide. Critics are excited, with an 89% rating on RT, but that's only 9 critics. I think the trailer is terrible, and I have no interest whatsoever in seeing this movie, which looks like it will bomb.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Update Friday morning: The Big Green Guy is still doing well, up H$1.50 today. MacGruber is still tanking, down H$2.25 to H$33. One of the questions that I am starting to ask is: If a movie is targeted at a specific audience, what are the chances that it will expand outside of that demographic? For example, last week, Letters to Juliet was targeted at women, with very little chance of attracting men, other than guys on dates. This week, SHRK4 is targeted at kids and families, but the appeal of the franchise is extremely broad. MacGruber, OTOH, is targeted at - well, I'm not sure, exactly, but it's probably teenage boys - and doesn't have much chance of expanding out of that. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: An almost perfectly split weekend, at least as far as my predictions. A rather terrible weekend, as far as actual results. I nailed MacGruber, which did in fact bomb - it made a grand total of $4 million. I never understood the appeal of this movie, and am very glad I made a good chunk of change shorting it. I needed that shot in the arm, cash-wise, because I was mostly wrong about Shrek 4. It opened with $71 million, not a bad haul, but way below expectations. I made a couple of mistakes: one, I didn't ask myself whether or not I wanted to see it, which is relevant for such a wide, mainstream release. The answer is no, I have no interest, I'm kind of bored with Shrek. Two, I put too much emphasis on the movement in the last two days. Three, I didn't go with the downward trend. Four, I was way too inside the bubble of Hollywood and the industry, and I didn't realize that. That's another question to ask: am I in the bubble? Shrek was getting a huge amount of publicity, but that's all a function of the bubble - lots of media groups want to do interviews etc. with the cast, because that's cheap and interesting for a couple of days. But it's also manufactured by the studio. Way too inside the bubble. That's the lesson for the weak.

May 14, 2010: Just Wright the Letters to Juliet, Robin Hood

Now that summer is here, we have a good mix of movies, the occasional drama and romantic comedy competing for attention with the blockbusters. Plucky little things, those dramas and romcoms. And, of course, we have the inevitable blockbuster that isn't, where the second part of "blockbuster" is the more apropos word. We may have one of those this weekend.

First up is a romcom with Queen Latifah and a rapper named Common, Just Wright (JUSTW). I'm not clear on why you would call yourself something that literally describes you are lacking in any kind of unique quality, unless it's a play on words - it's very uncommon, I suppose, to call yourself Common. Regardless, I am, as you might have guessed, not all that familiar with Mr. Common's work. I am more familiar with Queen Latifah's work onscreen, and just loved her in Stranger Than Fiction. It doesn't hurt that that is one of my all-time favorite movies. The stock had a very nice rise for a few weeks, going pretty much straight up, but it has been dropping precipitously for the last week or so. It's at H$27, down from a high of H$37. Strike price is H$10, a good price. The call (JUSTCA) is down to H$1 or so, roughly in line with the stock. The put (JUSTPU) is at H$3, which seems on the pessimistic side. It's only going out on 1,800 screens, not a great release. Critics are not impressed, with only a 33% rating on rottetomatoes.com. It sounds utterly predictable and safe, which is both a good and a bad thing. But it doesn't sound terrible, which counts for something. I'm looking for the sweet spot, around $10 million, right between the call and put. There are fairly moderate expectations, which, hopefully, will not be hard to beat. But this bears careful watching. Note: For some reason, there is not a CX derivative. Not sure why.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Short

Next up, with better prospects, is Letters to Juliet (LJULT), looking like something between a romantic comedy and a romantic drama. Doesn't look funny, but doesn't look like a tearjerker, either. Looks quite inspiring, just maybe. It's an intriguing idea: a woman vacationing in Verona, Italy, where Romeo met Juliet, finds a letter from 1957. She eventually reunites two long-lost lovers. Very sweet. The stock has been rising steadily, even this week. It's currently at H$48, a high. Hmmm. Looks like we might have us a sleeper hit on our hands. It's going out on 2,800 screens, and it doesn't have a lot of competition right now. Strike price is H$20, which is way optimistic. Call (LJULCA) is, whaddya know, barely treading water. If this makes the strike price, we will know we have a sleeper hit. Put (LJULPU) is also predicting sub-$20 numbers, currently around H$3 and a half. The CX derivative is actually behind the stock, at about H$45, which is an interesting sign. Really suggesting a sleeper hit with this one. Critics are not enthusiastic about this one, either, possibly given that it looks completely predictable and safe. But it also looks great, and the idea of a romantic movie with an older woman at the center of it (Vanessa Redgrave) is kind of nice. And I just love the shot of her long-lost love showing up riding a horse. Completely cliched, but utterly charming for the right people.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Long

Finally we have the blockbuster wannabe that looks like it might very well be a bust, Robin Hood (RBNHD). Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott team up in a movie that just about screams "Gladiator in Sherwood Forest." Although there are also shots in the trailer of a bunch of ships landing on a beach, and being met with fierce resistance. Which also suggests "Saving Private Ryan in Sherwood Forest." Regardless, this looks like an action-adventure movie that happens to take place in medieval England and happens to feature one of the iconic guerrilla warriors of history. It looks quite serious, with many sobering scenes of old men passing down wisdom to young men, and the young men avenging the old men, with most of it shot in shades of grey, green, khaki and drab. With the occasional orange when there is firelight present. I am not optimistic, and neither, apparently, is anyone else - the stock is down to H$91, from a high of H$156. That's a catastrophic drop. Strike price is H$40, a once-reasonable target that is looking increasingly untenable. The call (RBNHCA) is still above the IPO, at H$3, but it's dropping, and I expect it to continue on that trajectory. The put (RBNHPU) is rising, as expected, aiming at H$4. The CX derivative is still at H$117, but it had farther to drop, coming from a high of H$168. It's going out on more than enough screens, but critics are not excited, with only a 44% rating on RT. And the positive reviews are middling in their praise, struggling to find some justification for approval. Harry Knowles, in a superb review, just shreds it, calling it a "colossal failure," and justifying that description with a highly detailed outline of the actual history involved, and why this movie should have nothing to do with that actual history - it should just be a movie about Robin Hood, the idea, the legend, the myth. We're looking at a bomb of possibly historic dimensions here.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Update Friday morning: Robin of the Hood is doing well this morning, up H$4. This is not surprising, given the beating the stock has taken over the last month. Just Wright is looking a little more right, up H$1.50, while Letters to Juliet is down from its high, down a buck and change. All of this feels like noise. The buzz on Robin Hood is just relentlessly negative; even the positive reviews are just barely that. Iron Man presents a strong contrast because its very stylized, and just plain fun. Robin Hood looks way too serious for the mood of the audience right now. Expectations for Just Wright are fairly low, and I expect they will be beat without much trouble. The one I am most nervous about it Letters. It might open a shade below where it is now, but my opinion on that is not strong enough to switch positions. OTOH, I am expecting it to build. This movie looks like a long-term bet. Some people are going to hate it, but some people are going to be thrilled that there is something for them in the theaters. Maintaining all positions.

Well this was sort of an interesting weekend for TEQP-HSX. I got all the stocks wrong, but I got all of the options right, and one of the two CX derivatives right. I wasn't far off on the stocks - RBNHD adjusted up by a little more than H$5, JUSTW was down by a little less than H$3, and LJULT (the big loser) was down by H$6. So RBNHD and LJULT each reversed the trend that they were on, while JUSTW maintained the trend, but also went against the movement on Friday. The lesson for this week is pay close attention to trends, but be clear on how much weight to give to them. The trend with RBNHD was right, and the market was basically right. JUSTW did not have much potential, and it was fairly predictable. LJULT had been surging, but didn't have a lot of momentum. Not a great weekend, but not bad. I'm just glad I shorted RBNHD at H$107.

Holding all short to delist.

May 7, 2010: Iron Man 2

Oooh, now we're talking. Summer blockbuster season is here! A time for the deep frivolity of ridiculously expensive toys, hundreds of millions of dollars spent on the ephemera of physically impossible images captured forever on whatever is being used to capture images these days. Sometimes I am deeply conflicted about the almost total triumph of commerce over art for the next three or four months, but then I remember that the commerce pays for the art. Then I stop thinking.

There's only one movie opening this weekend, because it's one of the most anticipated movies of the year. That would be Iron Man 2 (IRNM2), starring Gwyneth Paltrow, Scarlett Johansson, lots of seriously avant garde heavy metal couture, and a couple of guys who are really enjoying their respective comebacks, Robert Downey, Jr., and Mickey Rourke. The plot consists of some bad guys doing something bad, and Iron Man stopping them. At least that's what I am guessing. They had me at "Gwyneth Paltrow plays the ultra-competent . . ." For me, the rest is icing on the cake. The only question before us today is, how many bazillions will it make this weekend? The stock is trading just under H$400, currently H$391, down slightly from the high of H$396. Rather dizzying heights, these prices. That translates to an opening weekend of H$145. The original opened with $98 million, so the sequel would have to do significantly better than that. However, in a quirk of distribution, Iron Man 2 has already opened in other territories around the world (to beat the World Cup), and it's doing quite well. HSX set the strike price at H$155, which is actually quite a good guess. The call (IRN2CA) is aiming at H$7, so we're talking about a weekend box office gross of over $160 million. I remember the first Spider-man opening with $114 million. I remember seeing the first day's total of $40 million, and thinking that maybe it was a typo. Nope. Today's put (IRN2PU) is not too badly either, at just above H$3. This is not surprising, given the uncertainty at this level of hype, where a 10% difference equals $16 million. The CX derivative is above the stock price, also unsurprising, currently at H$413. Also unsurprising is that both the stock and the CX derivative have been on pretty much an upward march. Oh, yeah, it's going out on 4,000 screens, basically as many as possible. Many critics have seen it - this one sure ain't being withheld from the chattering classes - and they mostly like it, giving it a 70% approval rating on RT. That's nice, although I am hard pressed to imagine a movie less dependent on critical approval for success. As long as it works, I'm good. Personally, I can't wait. Go Tony! Knock 'em dead, Pepper Potts!

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX: Long

Update Friday morning: Mr. Tony Stark's stock is down this morning. It was down H$9 at one point, but now it was only down H$5.25 at halt. It's too late to do anything different, but, for the record, I am maintaining all positions. Given the level of hype and uncertainty, I would be surprised if there weren't some profit-taking.

Update Sunday night: Well, the mistake this week - or two mistakes, really - was the same one I've made several times recently. I didn't use my questions, and, as a result, I didn't ask the question: "is there greater potential on the upside, or the downside?" I really should have asked that question, because there was a hell of a lot more potential on the downside than the upside. Iron Man 2 opened to a very respectable $133 million. That, however, was $22 million below the strike price for the options. The stock price adjusted down H$34. Really have to come up with that list of questions.

April 30, 2010: Furry Vengeance, A Nightmare on Elm Street

The summer season is not quite here, but almost! Next week the blockbusters start, with Iron Man 2 heralding the arrival of the usual bumper crop of explosions, hot bodies, and CGI. Should be fun!

Meanwhile, tho, we've got a couple of movies being dumped into the netherworld of pre-blockbuster movie season. The competition will heat up very quickly, so studios are releasing movies that they don't expect will do very well, anyway.

I finally started up my spreadsheet to judge movies. Neither of these scored very well. Both are going out on lots of screens.

First up, and probably the first to disappear, is Furry Vengeance (FURYV), starring Brendan Fraser, master of the midrange movie. It also stars - if "stars" is the right word - Brooke Shields, who must need a paycheck. Her name is nowhere in the marketing, which is probably a plus for her. Fraser is a real estate developer who wants to clear a forest to make way for a shopping mall or something. The local animals have different ideas. It's almost a clever premise. Well, not really. The stock has been dropping like a rock, and is just below H$25, from a high of H$46. This is what we call a "meltdown." Strike price is H$10, a usually lowball price, but it seems almost quaint with the price of the stock where it is. The call (FURYCA) is just above 50 cents, confirmation of aforementioned meltdown. Put (FURYPU) is at H$3 and change, suggesting an opening weekend barely above $6 million. Which should just about pay for Brendan Fraser's drycleaning. The CX derivative is at H$30, presumably because it just hasn't dropped far enough yet. It has a 3.2 rating on IMDb. Critics are doing their worst, with a 0% (yes, that's a zero) rating on rottentomatoes.com. There are only 13 reviews on Thursday afternoon, which implies that it was not screened for critics. Which absolutely would not be a surprise.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

On the other side of the aesthetic scale from family movies about cute animals is A Nightmare On Elm Street (NELMS), a place where it is dangerous to fall asleep. Not being a connoisseur of the genre, I'm not sure how well this is going to play. It's iconic enough of a franchise that even I know the name Freddy Kreuger, but I'm not sure if this reboot will work as well as others have. The stock is at H$93, down from the high of H$96, but just barely. But the director is fairly new, at least to movies - he's made a lot of music videos. So we can expect it to look good, but we're not sure about the plot. The writers are also a little thin in the movie credits department, so my guess is that the studio didn't put a lot of money into the script, and they hired a journeyman to make it. Neither is all that inspiring, although not all that crucial. CX derivative is H$93, almost exactly the stock price, but down dramatically from the absurd high of H$115. Strike price is H$35, right on target. Call (NELMCA) is riding nice and high at H$4, almost H$5. That gives us a $40 million opening weekend, and an adjust of H$108. However, the put (NELMPU) is not doing badly either, just under H$3. So slightly mixed signals there. No mixed signals from the critics, who basically hate it - all of a 6% rating on RT. Harry Knowles, on the other hand, loves it, so there's hope from geekdom. The key producer is Michael Bay, and his production company made the very successful Texas Chain Saw Massacre and Friday the 13th remakes. We're going to go with that record.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX: Long

Update Friday morning: FURYV is down to under H$22 - I don't think it can go much lower, but you never know, so I'm staying with that short. Freddy and friends are up H$4.50 this morning, so that long looks good, too. There must be a lot of people out there desperate for some good horror. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: Another split weekend. Brendan Fraser's career continues to crater, as FURYV only pulled in $6.5 million, while Freddy was successfully resurrected from the dead, or wherever he was, as NELMS pulled in $32 million. Way to go, Freddy, although that wasn't quite as good as I was hoping. I was optimistic about Nightmare's prospects when it opened with $15 million on Friday, but I forgot how skewed the results are for horror movies - Friday accounted for 49% of the weekend's take. And, of course, it will drop quickly from here on out. Shorting to delist is a sure thing this time around.

My mistake this weekend was not using a checklist as well as the spreadsheet. One item I will have on my checklist when I make it is this question: Is there greater potential on the upside, or the downside? The answer for Freddy et al. would have clearly been that there was more potential on the downside, as it was trading near the high for this kind of movie, and there wasn't a lot going for it, besides the franchise. It's a good franchise, and we have seen other horror franchises rebooted of late, but we've also seen horror franchises sputter. And I forgot about the tendency for horror movies to drop so fast. OTOH, I am happy with my FURYV prediction, because that was trading way down low, and I wasn't sure how much potential there was on the downside. So I'm happy I recognized a complete bomb in the making.