Thursday, May 27, 2010

May 28, 2010: Prince of Persia

Here we are, in the beginning of blockbuster season, and we have our first Jerry Bruckheimer extravaganza! How exciting. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (PRSIA), is based on a video game. That would be grounds for groaning, were it not for the fact that Mr. Bruckheimer also produced Pirates of the Caribbean, a great movie based on a Disney theme park ride. Still, the history of movies inspired by video games is not a glorious one. I would review that history, except that I'm not actually all that aware of it, and I'm not all that interested in doing the research. This does not look like a difficult movie to figure out. Stock is at H$94, down from H$141. That's what we call "tanking." The strike price is H$60, which predicts a stock price of $162. Wow, I can't remember a strike price as far out of sync with the stock price as this one. H$94 predicts an opening weekend of about $35 million. The CX derivative has been on pretty much a nosedive of late, dropping from H$176 to H$108 today. Somebody lost some money on that one.

I liked reading this line on the stock page: "A young prince finds a powerful artifact that has the power to destroy mankind through a massive sandstorm."

That's three cliches - "young prince," "powerful artifact" and power to destroy mankind" - in one sentence. I'm bored with the CGI just watching the trailer. I have no idea what the plot is, beyond some hot guy battles lots of bad guys, Ben Kingsley looks worried, and some hot woman trades some cool dialogue with aforementioned hot guy. Oh, almost forgot: the blockbuster warrant has a strike price of $120, and it's sinking fast, too, from H$12 to H$4, presumably on its way to oblivion.

I'm sure it's going out on lots of screens, again, I don't even want to do the research. It's scoring better with critics than I was expecting, with a 46% rating on RT. That, I can just about bet, is because it manages to beat absurdly low expectations. In other words, some people felt that it wasn't a complete waste. I am not finding out either way.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
CX: Short
Blockbuster Warrant: Short

Update Friday morning: The stock is up H$3.50 this morning, at 9:30 am Pacific. It looks like it might beat those low expectations, and it is Memorial Day weekend. I am maintaining my positions, but buying 10,000 shares long, just in case.
Update Monday night: So hedging didn't work out, but otherwise I nailed this one. It opened with $37.7 million, not even within striking distance of the strike price. Adjusted down from H$101 to H$83.

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