Thursday, June 24, 2010

June 25, 2010: Grown-Ups

There's only one movie opening tomorrow, Grown-Ups (GRWUP), starring a bunch of guys who are usually very funny. I, however, don't find the trailer all that exciting. The stock has followed the classic bell-curve of summer blockbusters, peaking about a month ago, and tanking since. It's at H$102, down from H$136. Strike price is H$40, which would predict a stock price of H$108. The call, predictably, is sliding, down to H$1.22. The put is heading north, above H$4. It's going out on 3,200 screens. The CX derivative has been just steadily dropping, and is currently about H$114. So that has room to drop as well. Strike price for the Blockbuster Warrant is H$120, which is feasible, but unlikely. That's at H$6.

It's at only 10% on I couldn't find any review of it on, so maybe Harry Knowles is completely ignoring it. Which would not surprise me. I'm not sure what this is about, other than some guys getting together when they are in their 40's, and acting immature. This does not have zero appeal for me - it has less than that. I don't hate Adam Sandler, I think he plays well in his niche, he knows what he's good at, and I've enjoyed some of his movies. But please, someone make this movie go away.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
CX: Short
BW: Short

Update Friday morning: It's down H$6. Whoops. So much for that idea.

Update Sunday night: I guess the message of the weekend is: don't underestimate Adam Sandler. He brought in $40 million, basically what most of his movies have made. Guess the market read him wrong as well. He knows what he does well, and he sticks to that, for the most part. Works for him, isn't working for me at this point.

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