First up, let's go the family route. "Family" meaning, "for kids," because I can't see a lot people going on dates to Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore (CTND2). Just not seeing it. I imagine the CGI is good, and I'm sure it has a few laughs. But this smells formula. Stock is at H$45, down from a high of H$64. Looks like it's sinking. Strike price is H$20, which is not quite ridiculous (although I'm sure it made sense when it was set), but doesn't make a lot of sense. Call (CND2CA) is still above IPO, which is somewhat surprising. What is not surprising is that the put (CND2PU) is above H$3 and rising. What is also unsurprising is that critics are savaging it, with a 17% rating on RT. It's going out on 3,700 screens, the widest release of the weekend. That's better than I was expecting, but not terribly meaningful. Not hard to guess where this one is going. No Blockbuster Warrant, which is both unsurprising and kind of a relief.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short
Next up is a tearjerker that I have even less interest in, although it looks reasonably well-done. Charlie St. Cloud (DLCSC) is based on the book The Death and Life of Charlie St. Cloud. Not terribly surprising that they took out the first part of that title for the movie. Zac Efron stars as a guy who feels guilty for the death of his little brother. Zac Efron has a strong appeal for a certain demographic, and he seems to be choosing good roles, but I'm not in that demographic. The stock is at H$34, down from a high of H$47. So, modest expectations that might be met, but I'm not optimistic. Strike price is H$20, which is ridiculous, because the price of the stock never came near justifying that kind of price. It was headed there, tho, so maybe that's understandable. We're seeing more rationality in the option prices here: Call (CSTCCA) is way below IPO, currently at 70 cents, while the put (CSTCPU) is at H$4 and rising. It's going out on 2,700 screens, a good release, but not quite blockbuster territory. Critics are heartfelt in their near-universal disparagement, with only 9% approving. Any reasons for optimism? Any at all? None as far as I can see.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Finally we have a movie for the above-15 set. Dinner for Schmucks (SHMUC) stars Paul Rudd as a corporate climber, and Steve Carell as a total dweeb who becomes his friend. And dinner companion. And potential victim. Certainly an interesting idea for a movie. Stock price is H$66, which sounds reasonable, but is down from H$94. Clearly a victim of its own hype. It bottomed out at H$55, so it's rebounding nicely. We have another H$20 strike price, but this one is realistic, and may even be low. Call (SHMUCA), of course, is doing well, above H$4. Put (SHMUPU), of course, is sinking, below IPO. Looks like a great role for Steve Carell. Almost 3,000 screens, nice and wide. Critics are somewhat lukewarm, with only a 54% rating on RT, and not a lot of love in the positive ones. That prompts a second look. The stock price suggests an opening weekend of $24 million, which I think is possible even if it's not a great movie. At the very least it's unlike any other movie currently out there. There's a good reason for optimism.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Update Friday morning: All three are moving in the direction I expected: Cats and Dogs continues to drop, down H$2.66 this morning, Zac Efron and his soulful eyes are down a little less than a buck, and the Schmuckfest is up H$3.50. Maintaining all positions.
Update Sunday night: Just about everything came in as predicted. Dinner for Schmucks came in at $23 million, which was a shade under the prediction of the stock price. It adjusted down H$5, from H$67 to H$62, which is trivial. Cats & Dogs and Charlie both came in at about $12 million, way, way below their strike prices. Both adjusted down. So, out of 9 predictions, I got 8 right. That's a good weekend at TEQP-HSX.
No comments:
Post a Comment