Week of August 6, 2010: The Other Guys Step Up

I am posting this late because my Internet service is down at home. So this is a Friday morning update, as well as a regular post. We have two movies opening this weekend, both with less-than-blockbuster expectations.

First up is Step Up 3D, third in the dance movie series. Full disclosure: I haven't seen any of these movies, and probably won't be seeing this one. Fuller disclosure: the director, Jon Chu, went to USC film school around the same time I did. I don't know him, but we have friends and acquaintances in common. Stock is doing reasonably well, at H$44, up H$1 and change today. That's below the high of H$50, but not much. There hasn't been much of a dropoff with this one, which is good. Strike price is H$15, which is exactly right. Call is at H$2 and a smidgen of change, so there's a bit of optimism there. Put is at exactly the same price, H$2.13, but is down, whereas the call is up. So we see some trending upwards. No Blockbuster Warrant, although I'm sure it will do much better than one of the movies that DID have a BW, Jonah Hex. Critics are not enthused, with only a 50% rating on RT, and even some of the positive reviews damning with faint praise. But this sounds like pretty much what you expect: an excuse for lots of hot young people to move in really exciting ways. It's going out on 2,400 screens, also exactly as expected. Fullest disclosure: the only person I know who saw the first one was my Mormon aunt in Utah (who has 8 grandchildren). She loved it. I'm not betting against my Mormon aunt or my fellow USC alum.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

The other movie opening this weekend is The Other Guys (OTHRG), starring Marky Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell as two bumbling cops. It's been done before, but it's also good to see Will Ferrell back doing what he does best. Stock is at H$86, down from a high of H$125 - yet another victim of overhype. Seen that a few times this year. It's down this morning, but only 50 cents. Strike price is H$30, also dead-on. Nice to see HSX nailing that. Call is at $3, heading towards H$4, while the put is below H$2 and heading farther south. Optimism in the options. Critics are quite enthusiastic, which is an excellent sign, with 79% approval on RT. It's going out on 3,600 screens, a great wide release. The only competition is Dinner For Schmucks, which does not seem to have as much momentum. I know many people who would love to see a great comedy, including me.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Update Sunday night: Just about nailed this one. Not quite, but close. The Other Guys came in at $35 million, and adjusted up H$10, to H$96. Step Up 3D brought in H$15.5 million, almost exactly the strike price. It adjusted down H$3, which is trivial. So I got all of the options right, although I would have made more money shorting the call on STUP3. Still, it was a good weekend.

March 21, 2010: Shrek and MacGruber

There are two movies opening this weekend, both comedies. One is pretty much a guaranteed blockbuster, the other is a product of Saturday Night Live.

Shrek 4evah (SHRK4) is finally here, and our beloved green ogre is finally bidding his adieus. It's been fun, green man! I like the way DreamWorks is handling this - they seem to be bowing out gracefully. They've had a great run, now it's time to say goodbye. The stock is trading at H$247, down from a high of H$265, but up H$4 and change today. Strike price is H$90, right on target, with the call (SHR4CA) trading nice and high around H$5. The put (SHR4PU) isn't doing too badly, either, however, aiming at H$3. The stock price indicates an opening of H$91, so the split on the options is understandable. The CX derivative hit a high of H$331, and has been dropping ever since, currently around H$280. It's going out on a bazillion or so screens. It's in 3D, which I almost forgot about, because it's just not that exciting. But that may help the BO. Critics are not that impressed, with only about half reasonably impressed, giving it a 50% rating on RT. I remember not being that impressed with the third one, so that may diminish the appeal of this one. Shrek 2 opened with $108 million, and Shrek 3 opened with $121 million. However, Shrek 3 did not make as much as Shrek 2, $322 million domestically versus $441 million. So we're on a downward trend, but that is taken into account with the stock. The director raises some concerns for me: Mike Mitchell's big movie on his resume is Deuce Bigolo: Male Gigolo. The writers haven't done all that much, either. That suggests that DreamWorks wasn't willing to spend the money for the best people. That's not good. I have no interest in seeing this, but I think there's some lingering goodwill. I think it will beat the lowered expectations. But I will be watching it closely.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX: Short

The other opening this week is MacGruber (MGRUB), a spinoff of the Saturday Night Live sketch. Stock is not doing well, currently at H$38, down from a high of H$49. The strike price is H$15. So we have one of those situations where HSX made a good guess about the strike price a couple of weeks ago, but it's now ridiculous. Call (MGRUCA) is below H$2, while the put (MGRUPU) is above H$3. CX derivative is at H$38, down from H$47 -so it has been moving in line with the stock. It's going out on 2,400 screens, not a bad release, but not ultrawide. Critics are excited, with an 89% rating on RT, but that's only 9 critics. I think the trailer is terrible, and I have no interest whatsoever in seeing this movie, which looks like it will bomb.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Update Friday morning: The Big Green Guy is still doing well, up H$1.50 today. MacGruber is still tanking, down H$2.25 to H$33. One of the questions that I am starting to ask is: If a movie is targeted at a specific audience, what are the chances that it will expand outside of that demographic? For example, last week, Letters to Juliet was targeted at women, with very little chance of attracting men, other than guys on dates. This week, SHRK4 is targeted at kids and families, but the appeal of the franchise is extremely broad. MacGruber, OTOH, is targeted at - well, I'm not sure, exactly, but it's probably teenage boys - and doesn't have much chance of expanding out of that. Maintaining all positions.

Update Sunday night: An almost perfectly split weekend, at least as far as my predictions. A rather terrible weekend, as far as actual results. I nailed MacGruber, which did in fact bomb - it made a grand total of $4 million. I never understood the appeal of this movie, and am very glad I made a good chunk of change shorting it. I needed that shot in the arm, cash-wise, because I was mostly wrong about Shrek 4. It opened with $71 million, not a bad haul, but way below expectations. I made a couple of mistakes: one, I didn't ask myself whether or not I wanted to see it, which is relevant for such a wide, mainstream release. The answer is no, I have no interest, I'm kind of bored with Shrek. Two, I put too much emphasis on the movement in the last two days. Three, I didn't go with the downward trend. Four, I was way too inside the bubble of Hollywood and the industry, and I didn't realize that. That's another question to ask: am I in the bubble? Shrek was getting a huge amount of publicity, but that's all a function of the bubble - lots of media groups want to do interviews etc. with the cast, because that's cheap and interesting for a couple of days. But it's also manufactured by the studio. Way too inside the bubble. That's the lesson for the weak.

April 23, 1990: The Losers, The Backup Plan

Two moderately interesting movies this week, not great, but should be good. We're waiting for summer blockbuster season.

I haven't finished my new spreadsheet for evaluating opening weekend numbers, but I did come up with what I hope is a good insight. I noticed that there are a number of movies that peak on HSX (and Cantor) a few weeks before release, and then drop. Part of the reason for this, I suspect, is asymmetrical information. Those of us outside the studio know very little about the movie, and what we do know is mostly the result of marketing: who's in it, who are the key creatives, and what it's about. That's what the studio wants us to know. But the studio knows a lot more, specifically the most important piece of information about a particular movie that will determine its success: whether or not it's any good. I haven't developed this theory much beyond this, but I wanted to post about it today.

The first movie we have this weekend is The Backup Plan (PLANB), which actually has not peaked and then dropped. I suspect that because it's not subject to much hype. Jennifer Lopez, the star attraction here, doesn't have the luster that she used to. Stock is H$31, or about an $11 million opening, and has been moving steadily up. Strike price is H$10, a tad low, but not far off. Call (PLANCA) is doing quite well, at H$3 and change. Put (PLANPU), as expected, is dropping, just above a buck. CX derivative has followed just about the same trajectory as the stock, which is a good sign. Critics are not enthusiastic, with a 20% rating on rottentomatoes.com. There are only a few reviews up as of this writing, but I don't expect that to improve by much. It's going out on lots and lots and lots of screens. So what do we know about this movie? It stars Jennifer Lopez, who has some goodwill left over, but has also burned some of her star power. The guy is some handsome dude that I've never heard of. The plot is a variation on the romantic comedy. In these kinds of movies, there has to be a good reason why the couple is being kept apart. She's pregnant, the result of artificial insemination, but doesn't want to tell him. My guess is that this results in her coming up with all kinds of weird excuses for weird behavior. It's not hard to write these kinds of gags, and it's not hard to shoot them. Expectations are fairly minimal, but they should not be hard to overcome. Jennifer Lopez has one thing going for her: she is by far the most mainstream Hispanic actress in the country right now. That gives her a good marketing hook for a good segment of the population. The studio knows a lot more about how to market her than I do. But I suspect they will do that well.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
CX: Long

I'm more interested in the other movie opening this weekend, The Losers (LOSRS). The trailer looks like a lot of fun. This stock has followed the trajectory I outlined above, peaking and then dropping quite precipitously. It's currently at H$34, down from H$57. That's quite the cliff. Part of the hype is, I'm sure, due to the genre. Looks like a fairly generic action adventure movie, with a good B-list cast (although Zoe Saldana is close to being A-list) and lots of excuses for sex and explosions. Good times! Of course, it does star B-listers, most of whom are flying well under the paparazzi radar. Part of the problem for it this weekend will be competing with Kick-Ass, which also looks like a generic genre movie, but is quite the surprisingly good movie. That's going to steal a chunk of the audience. Strike price was set at H$20, which presumably made sense three or four weeks ago, but is close to ludicrous today. So, easy money playing the call and put this time around. Call (LOSRCA) is dropping like a rock, while the put (LOSRPU) is above H$4. CX derivative has also dropped off a cliff, but is still around H$40. Critics are almost kind, with a 50% approval on RT. Once again, low expectations, at least after too-high expectations were purged. I have to admit that I love the trailer, and I am somewhat optimistic about it just based on that. Of course, this is the asymmetrical information in its purest form: we're only seeing the cool shots. But I like how the trailer was put together, because it's not just a fast-paced smashup of lots of explosions. It's got a great mix of action, humor, and even some character development. I like trailers that take some time to show enough of a scene that you have to listen to get the joke. There are some good lines ("Blagyver!") and a few good shots. Love the guy who shoots people with his hands, and then they drop. Very simple, but cool. That suggests that it is well-produced, always a good sign Great production value there - simple, cheap, but cool. I also like the shot of Zoe Saldana opening up coffins. That makes we wonder how they ended up in those coffins. I am not all that much worried about how good the plot is. This is not a movie you watch for the plot, although it helps if it's not completely ludicrous.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Long
CX: Long

Ironically, I apparently don't have permission to embed the video for the trailer, so watch it at HSX.com if you're interested.

Update Saturday morning: I was traveling yesterday morning, so I missed LOSRS dropping H$4.50. Whoa, not a good sign. Guess that trailer isn't making up for the lack of stars.

Update Sunday night: The Losers unfortunately lived up to their name, not quite clearing $10 million, while J.Lo pretty much met expectations, opening at $12 million and change. I didn't predict the opening for the documentary Oceans, because it opened on Wednesday, and there isn't much data or experience to go on predicting opening weekend box office for documentaries. I probably should have shorted The Losers several weeks ago, then I would have felt comfortable staying short. My big mistake this weekend was staying long on an overpriced CX derivative on LOSRS. But a good weekend overall, as I got everything right about PLANB, and the options right on LOSRS. 6 out of 8, or 75%, ain't bad.

April 16, 2010: Kick Ass, Death at a Funeral

Two movies opening this weekend, one fairly original, and the other a remake. Both comedies. Both looking good.

Kick-Ass (KCKAS) is based on a comic book, sort of. I'm not quite clear on the turn of events, but apparently both were conceived/written at the same time. The Original Fund is not investing in this, much as I would like to, because it's not completely original. It is, however, one of the most anticipated movies of the year. The only star is Nicholas Cage, but he doesn't have a starring role. It's about a teenage boy who decides to become a superhero, despite having no superpowers. It sounds deliriously fun. Stock is at H$95, down from a high of almost H$130, because the hype was just through the roof for a while there. Of course, every now and then hype is justified. The strike price is H$40, which would have been perfectly reasonable at H$120, but is a shade high for where the stock is now. Not surprisingly, the call (KCKACA) is sinking, below the IPO, while the put (KCKAPU) is above H$4. It's opening on 3,000+ screens. Critics are mostly very enthusiastic, with a 74% rating on rottentomatoes.com, although Roger Ebert hated it. Harry Knowles, on the other hand, not only loves it, but posts a long rebuttal to his friend and hero Mr. Ebert. The CX derivative is slightly below the stock, which is somewhat unusual. One factor to consider is that it's rated R, which should technically limit the box office, since many of the target audience allegedly will not be able to see it on their own. Not terribly worried about that one. There is one essential question that has to be asked when evaluating movies and how well they might do at the box office: why is this movie being made? Is it being made because a studio wants to make money? If that's the case, it's probably a very safe, generic movie, the kind that is entertaining, but doesn't take too many risks. Or was it made by people who are passionate about the story? That's the kind of movie that takes risks, and sometimes hits very, very big. The movies that make the most money are usually the movies that are so distinctive that they become part of the cultural consciousness - they become touchstones, the movies that people use as references. My favorite example is Thelma and Louise. It's not a complicated movie, but it's unique and interesting enough that I can refer to it and be confident that even people who haven't seen it have heard of it, and know what it's about. The other great example, of course, is Pulp Fiction.

I have a feeling this is going to be one of those movies. The director, Matthew Vaughn, raised the money himself. It's not being sold on the basis of the stars, writer, or director. There is a big name involved with this movie: Brad Pitt is one of the producers. But his name is nowhere in the marketing - I've only read one mention of his involvement. Which strongly suggests that he is producing this just because he likes the project, and he doesn't want his name used in the marketing, because that would distract from the movie itself. Good for him.

I'm betting against the market on this one, because I think this one is going out of the park.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX: Long

The other movie opening this weekend is "Death at a Funeral" (DEFUN), a remake of a British movie from just a couple of years ago. The original movie was based on an original idea, and a rather funny one: a funeral home delivers a casket with the wrong body to a funeral, and bizarre family secrets are revealed. It was funny, but rather dry. It wasn't particularly successful in this country, only pulling in $8 million, but it made $38 million overseas. Chris Rock must have absolutely loved it, because he is the one who decided to remake it. He stars in it, co-wrote the script, and produced it. It's directed by Neil LaBute. Yes, that Neil LaBute, known for depressing dramas. Stock is at H$68.16, the all-time high. This one has just been rocketing up in the last couple of weeks. Strike price is H$20, which almost looks underpriced at this point. Call (DEFUCA) is moving up nicely, aiming at H$4. Put (DEFUPU) is down below the IPO. CX derivative is at H$65, almost perfectly in line with the stock, although it has dropped, from some astronomical heights. Like Kick-Ass, this is a passion project - really can't see any studio executives clamoring to do this. Remaking a British arthouse movie with an African-American cast? That's got to be a first. It's opening on 2,400 screens, which should be more than enough. Critics aren't very impressed, with only a 43% rating on RT, but there are only 9 reviews up at this point. I liked the original, although I didn't love it, but my guess is that Chris Rock can make this one funnier than the original. I don't bet against Tyler Perry, and I'm sure not going to bet against Chris Rock.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Long

CX: Long

Update Friday morning: I have to admit that I was slightly nervous about DEFUN, since the reviews have not been great, and the original was, after all, an arthouse flick. But it's up H$5 this morning, a very strong sign, so I am maintaining that position. KCKAS, on the other hand, is down H$5, usually a sign to bail. I'm maintaining my long position on this as well, because the buzz is just so ridiculously strong. It's a gamble, and I don't like betting against the market, but I have a good feeling about this one. What particularly appeals to me about this one is that it could appeal to most demographics: the fanboy crowd, parents with teenagers, even regular adults who just want to see a fun movie. I have every intention of seeing it, possibly this weekend. It's got an A- so far from users Yahoo! movies. I take that source with a large grain of salt, assuming that there is a strong contingent of studio plants, but it's still a good sign. It's also doing quite well on IMDbpro, with an 8.4 rating from almost 8,000 users. That's enough that it is legitimately a wide user base, not just studio plants. So still planning to go long to delist.

Update Sunday night: Well, damn. This may be the best and worst weekend of my prediction career. It's the worst because I went exactly the wrong way on both of my predictions - I bet against the market on KCKAS, and with the market on DEFUN, when I should have done exactly the opposite. Kick-Ass came in at just under $20 million, just a tad shy of the $30 million I was predicting, and DEFUN came in at $17 million, also well south of my $25 million prediction. I have been thinking of coming up with a spreadsheet/checklist of questions and issues I can and should ask around each release. I really, really have to come up with that. I need to be able to play devil's advocate with myself.

But it's the best weekend for me because I don't think I have ever been less worried about being so dramatically wrong than I am in the case of KCKAS. I saw it on Saturday night. My review is here. The actual viewing started out a little odd - we saw the first few minutes of Clash of the Titans, rather than this. Someone alerted the theater immediately, and they corrected the situation fairly quickly, but it still started a good half an hour late. Not unheard of, but a little odd in this day and age. And this was Pacific Theaters at The Grove, a fairly new facility.

The reason I am so not worried about being wrong about KCKAS is that I enjoyed the movie so much. It's a phenomenal movie. It may take a few days for word of mouth to build, but build it will. It's already at #166 on IMDb's list of the top 250 movies of all time. It's that good. Very, very highly recommended.

February 26, 2010: Cop Out, The Crazies

Two movies opening this weekend, both pretty normal. The Oscars are in a couple of weeks, and that weekend will soak up moviegoers' attention, so I'm guessing that studios are dropping deadweight into the space just before that.

Kevin Smith has directed a movie about two cops called - get this - Cop Out (2COPS). I'm not a big Kevin Smith fan. Couldn't finish Clerks. I liked Dogma, but recognize that it's not a very polished film. This is the first movie that he has directed that is not from his own script. He may be thinking that it's time for him to grow up as a filmmaker, although no bets on that one. One can only stay a fanboy forever, although he is certainly stretching it out. The stock is currently in the mid-50's, down from a high in the mid-60's, and it has been edging downward for some time. The strike price is H$20, just right, with the call (2COPCA) doing well at H$3.30. The put (2COPPU) is above IPO, at H$2 and change. The CX derivative is just a smidgen below the stock. On Cantor, it's at $60, not terribly surprising. So all signs are pointing, so far, to a $20 million weekend. Except the score on rottentomatoes.com, which is at 13%. I couldn't find anything even remotely entertaining about the trailer, let alone funny. Smith is a smart man, but he's not a particularly disciplined one. He has enough of a reputation to attract his fan base, but I don't think he's going to get much beyond that.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX on HSX: Short

Cantor: Short

Also coming out this weekend is what looks - to me, at least - like a generic horror movie, The Crazies (CRAZI). It's a remake of an old George Romero movie. I've never heard of the original, but that doesn't mean much. Stock is at H$42, which is a high. It's been moving up steadily. It's going out on 2,476 screens (2COPS is going out on 3,500, which I think is more of a desperation move than anything). Strike price is H$15, again, just right, with the call (CRAZCA) heading northward, at H$3 and change. The put (CRAZPU) is below the IPO, another good sign (although just barely). The CX derivative is at H$38, which is something to keep an eye on. What's particularly interesting is the critics' perspective: it's scoring an eye-popping 88% on RT. Ain't It Cool News is hosting a screening with the director tomorrow (that would be Breck Eisner, son of Michael, ex-chairman of Disney), which sounds like marketing heaven. Something about this movie sounds like it is going to be bigger than expected.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

CX on HSX: Long

Cantor: Long

Update Friday morning: Both of these movies are down on HSX and Cantor this morning, although 2COPS is down more, almost H$4, while CRAZI is down H$2.66 at the halt. That much of a drop confirms my opinion on 2COPS - that's a strong indication that it is going to bomb. I read a couple of positive reviews this morning, one in the LA Times, one in the LA Weekly, and a friend of mine thot the red band trailer was funny. But that same friend also expressed more interest in CRAZI. They're competing for the same audience, young men, but it sounds like CRAZI is a better movie. The drop for 2COPS comes on top of mucho negative publicity, so it confirms my opinion. CRAZI still has its fans, although it's at 72% on RT. That's still quite good. expectations are still fairly low, so I'm still going long on CRAZI.

Update Monday morning: My predictions were quite good this weekend, as were the markets'. 2COPS brought in $18.5 million, and adjusted less than H$1, to H$50.13. So I got all of those predictions right. CRAZI came in better than the market expected, but right around where I was thinking, at $16.5 million. Again, I nailed it. 2COPS had a per-screen average of $5,894, while CRAZI had a PSA of $6,572, so it did better on that score. I am staying short on 2COPS, but holding CRAZI long to delist. 2COPS had a lot more screens this weekend, but that means that there are a lot more screens to pull next weekend. Since CRAZI had a higher PSA, theaters have slightly more incentive to keep it on their screens. We'll see what happens.

October 2, 2009: The Invention of Lying, Whip It, Zombieland

We have three comedies this weekend, three rather different comedies, and not a family film among them.

First up is The Invention of Lying (INVLY), in which Ricky Gervais plays a man who lives in a world where everyone always tells the truth. He, however, learns how to lie, which makes his life quite interesting. I like Gervais, and I like Jennifer Garner, the romantic object of his affection, but boy is this stock not doing well. It's down from a high of H$48 to H$29 today. HSX set the strike price at H$15, which was reasonable a couple of weeks ago. Now it's just depressing. But this is also a great opportunity to make some easy money off the options. The call (ILYCA) is below a buck, and down it will continue to go - the stock is predicting somewhere around $10 million this weekend, nowhere near $15 million. The put (ILYPU) is at H$3, and even that might be cheap. It's going out on 1,700 screens, which is not bad, but not a very wide release. That means the studio doesn't have blowout expectations. Critics like it; it's at 61% on rottentomatoes.com. I have a feeling the stock drop was the result of serious overhyping. This price feels much more realistic. What I like about it is that it's a very original idea. One problem I have is that it feels very much like our world, except that everybody always tells the truth. But if it was always that way, everyone would have adapted appropriately, and a large part of the comedy seems to come from Gervais' character surprise at some of the truths that he is being told. I am cautiously optimistic that it will be a pleasant surprise on the upside. But even at $10-12 million, the strike price is still ridiculous.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Invention of Lying' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Drew Barrymore is putting all of her Hollywood experience to use in her directing debut, "Whip It" (WHIPT), about a teenage girl who joins a roller derby team. She's also co-starring, which is gutsy, but possibly a smart move. Stock price climbed quite nicely for a while, dropped for a few days, but is picking up today. High was H$34, and it's currently H$26. So not a terrible drop. It feels like a somewhat generic "rebellious-teenager-coming-of-age" movie, but every generation needs movies like this, and Drew Barrymore directing certainly fits well with the message. Of course, it might look generic to me because it doesn't really resonate with me. It's fairly narrowly targeted, but it's also very precisely targeted, and I ain't in this demographic. Strike price is a little more reasonably priced at H$10. Even so, the call (WHPCA) is sinking, down to H$1.35, while the put (WHPPU) is rising, within range of two and a half bucks. We have a disconnect here between the put and the stock price. The put suggests an opening of around $7.5 million, while the stock suggests an opening closer to $10 million. It's going out on 2,100 screens, a good release for a movie that is somewhere between a good indie and a studio movie. It's being released by Fox Searchlight, so this makes sense. It's at 80% on rottentomatoes.com, so it's probably actually a good movie. Drew Barrymore could have chosen just about any script for her directing debut. The fact that she chose this one is a healthy sign.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Whip It' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Now we come to the movie with the big guns this weekend, and I do mean big guns. Zombieland (ZMBLN) is about zombies taking over the world, and the few remaining normal people who have to somehow survive. Not the most original plot, but the buzz is great, and the stock is doing quite well. It's currently at H$59, just barely down from a high of H$62. The strike price is H$20, which, in contrast to INVLY, feels rather on the low side. Call (ZMBCA) is solidly above H$3, while the put (ZMBPU) has floated down to the IPO price, H$2. I'm surprised the put is that high, but apparently some people don't like zombies. It's going out on 2,900 screens, a good wide release. Critics are enthusiastic, with an 84% rating on RT. It's an R-rated comedy, but so is The Hangover, and that made $45 million on its opening weekend, on the way to a worldwide gross of 10 times that. The stock and call are predicting $22-$24 million, but I think $30 million is not out of the question.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Zombieland' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Well this is a little embarrassing. I was right about Zombieland, if a shade optimstic; it grossed $25 million and adjusted up H$11, to H$67. On INVLY and WHIPT, however, I was totally off. Each adjusted down, although INVLY by H$4. It grossed $7.3 million. Drew Barrymore apparently does not have the star power I thot she did; WHIPT only picked up $4.8 million. Both were cheap productions, but both of those are disappointments.

I did learn a couple of valuable lessons this week. First, I checked out The Derby at boxofficemojo.com, to see what the predictions were there. I've played The Derby once or twice, but I haven't been that impressed with the box office predictions there in the past. But it would have been a good reality check this time around. The prediction for Zombieland was way off, at $16 million, but the prediction for Invention of Lying was almost perfect, and the number for Whip It, $8.9, was off, but still closer than what I was thinking. So I will have to check that on a routine basis.

The second, even more important lesson that I learned this week, was that I have a tendency to stick with whatever position I am holding, particularly if I am long a stock. I want to prove that I have been right all along. I didn't short INVLY when I should have, which was a couple of weeks ago. I also should have shorted WHIPT back then. I will have to be more aggressive about changing positions well ahead of opening weekend.