August 28, 2009: Two Horror Movies, and Woodstock

OK, this is the kind of weekend August is famous for: a dumping ground for movies the studios don't know what to do with. Going against the counter-programming grain, the two big studio movies being released this weekend are both horror flicks. Isn't there a bad teen sex comedy sitting on a studio shelf somewhere? The other release takes advantage of the 40th anniversary of Woodstock, because of course there is always a shortage of Baby Boomer nostalgia in the world. The 60's! Again! Since there are still Baby Boomers alive, their youth is still being marketed to them. And the rest of us still have to live through it.

Question of the day: Why do we keep seeing sequels to a movie called "Final Destination"? Wasn't it "final" the first time? Apparently not, because "The Final Destination" (FDES4) (maybe the addition of a definite article means that it really is finished?) is the fourth in the franchise. Since I barely knew there was a franchise, I'm probably not the best person to comment on its BO potential. But the numbers are mostly good: it's on the requisite 3,000+ screens, the stock has been rising very steadily, to H$54, and the call (FD4CA) is up to H$3.56, against a strike price of H$20. The put (FD4PU) is below the magic price of a buck, so options traders are very optimistic about this one. I have no idea what critics think, because there is so far a grand total of one review on rottentomatoes.com. Not terribly surprising that it hasn't been screened for critics. Just based on the numbers, let's bet lots of teenagers will want to see their fellows whacked creatively.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

The Final Destination trailer in HD

It's hard to add another layer of artificiality and superficiality to a horror movie sequel, but someone just pulled it off: Halloween 2 (H2) is the sequel of a remake. Got that? Rob Zombie is finding ways to postpone any kind of original thinking in terms of character or setting. Just keep that franchise going any way you can! I can't wait for the "reimagining" of the remake of the sequel to the remake, which had lots of sequels. Oddly enough, this one is being released two months before Halloween. Marketing 101, anyone? Or would releasing the 53rd or whatever variation on the theme of Halloween on the actual day be just a little too cliched? Maybe we shouldn't think about it. The stock reached a high a few clicks above Final Destination, H$61, but has since drifted lower than its competition, and is down H$3 for today, to H$49. The call (H2CA) is close to H$4, but down a smidgen today. The put, however, is floating another smidgen above the IPO price, currently at H$2.13. So some traders are pessimistic. It's on roughly 3,000 screens, but there are even fewer critics at rottentomatoes.com, and fewer than 1, of course, equals zero. Sigh. There are only so many horror movie fans in the world, and the numbers suggest that they are going to be going to The Final Destination. It is in 3D, maybe blood coming out of the screen will make a difference. Releasing a movie called Halloween before Labor Day strikes me as a little too proactive.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

Halloween II


Ang Lee has made a movie about Woodstock, "Taking Woodstock," (WDSTK) presumably because he believes that the 400,000 people who were there have not told their stories often enough to the several hundred million people who weren't, but who wish they had been. The trailer is charming, the cast is solid, and Ang Lee is a great director. But I have no interest. Maybe there are some Baby Boomers still hung up on their youth, but it doesn't look like they play HSX: the stock is tanking, down from a high of H$22 to H$17 today. The call (WDSCA) is following a similar trajectory, at H$2.39, against a strike price of all of H$5. The put (WDSPU) is around the same price. I'm shorting both, because I think the opening BO will be right around $5 million, right near the strike price, dead on between the call and put. I'm sure it will be an entertaining experience, because how could you not have fun watching one of the biggest parties ever? On the other hand, there won't be much drama, because we all know how it ended. We all know that really, really well.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short

'Taking Woodstock' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Update Friday morning: FDES4 is tanking, down H$3, not a good sign. H2 is up less than a buck, which is noise, and not significant. I found reviews of both movies (from Thursday midnight screenings) on Ain't It Cool News. Both movies are apparently terrible, and these reviews will have an impact. FDES4 is spectacularly bad, and H2 apparently isn't much better. The fact that they are both sequels, and one is a sequel to a remake, sends the very strong, and very wrong, signal that Hollywood is not interested in making original movies. Which is really, really bad marketing.

So I am changing my position on FDES4, shorting it, shorting the call, and going long on the put. Keeping my position on H2, and not changing anything about WDSTK, because I don't think one day is going to change people's opinions about something that happened 40 years ago.

Update Sunday night: So my original decision on FDES4 was the right one, so I feel a little stupid. It made $28 million this weekend, confirming how little I understand the appeal of these movies. My other bets were right, H2 dropped, although just H$5, and WDSTK didn't quite break $4 million.

Inglorious Basterds and Some Other Movies

It's still August, and this week we have an odd mix: one dumping-ground something or other, a family movie, and a Quentin Tarantino movie, which of course is neither being dumped, nor is it a family movie.

The movie that is being released in August only because this is a time when movies that aren't going anywhere get released, is "Post Grad" (POSTG), starring Alexis Bledel, late of the Gilmore Girls, as a twenty-something who is trying to figure out what to do with her life post-college. I sympathize; it was a very torturous, extremely drawn-out process for me. But I also have no interest in this movie, which looks utterly generic, including the standard issue boy trouble. It's nice to see a woman in a leading role, but in the poster, she looks 13. The stock is at H$11, and sinking. The strike price is H$5, and even that is optimistic. The call (PSGCA) is at H$1.22, and I'm surprised it's that high. The put (PSGPU)is at H$2.78. And that's for a strike price of H$5. It's at 7% on rottentomatoes.com, and I don't care how many screens it's on.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Post Grad' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Robert Rodriguez returns to the big screen with another movie for kids, "Shorts" (SHORT). Rodriguez made a great, surreal kids movie with wonderful special effects once. It was called "Spy Kids," and it was a lot of fun. Then he made two sequels. The first sequel was not bad. The second sequel, the third movie in the series, was one of the worst movies I have ever seen, and it was clear that Rodriguez is one of the most self-centered, egotistical directors on the planet. Which is saying something. Shorts looks like it might be funny, but I just don't trust the man. The stock is at H$32, down from a recent high of H$42. The strike price is H$15, which was realistic a week ago, and absurd today, unless the stock picks up about 10 points tonight. It's on 3,105 screens, a fairly wide release, but it's also at 36% on rottentomatoes.com, and I don't see it picking up much of an audience outside of small children and their families. I have a feeling every kid over about 12 will think this is childish. Rather limits the potential box office.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Shorts' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Now we get to the good part. The last time Quentin Tarantino and Rodriguez released a movie on the same weekend, they did it together, the bizarre experiment of a double feature in one movie, "Grindhouse." I didn't see it, mostly because it bombed, but also because it sounded silly and an exercise in egotism. This time Rodriguez is releasing a candy-colored confection, and Tarantino is releasing another bloody extravaganza, "Inglorious Basterds" (BSTRD). Brad Pitt plays an American leading a group of Jews hunting Nazis in WWII. As seems to be the case with so many of QT's movies, it's generating both heat and criticism. The stock, naturally, has been quite volatile, trending mostly down recently, down from a high of H$115 to the current H$72. The strike price is H$25, a reasonable guess. The call (IBSCA) is H$5+, which seems a little out of whack. That predicts a $30 million opening weekend, or an adjust to about H$80. Rather doubtful. The put (IBSPU) is at the opposite end of the spectrum, at H$1. It's at 87% on RT, and that matters, since QT is such a critics' darling. It's on 3,165 screens, wide enough to make Harvey's Weinstein's dreams of a comeback come true. One fact stands out: Quentin Tarantino, at his best, is a damn good director.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Inglourious Basterds' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Note: There is a fourth wide release this weekend, X Games 3d (XGM3d), but it's a documentary being released for one week only, so not much action in terms of HSX. It's at H$3 and change, with, of course, no options. Short.

Update Friday morning: POSTG is down H$1.69, which doesn't seem like much, but is about 16%, a significant drop. Looks like whatever buzz it had - and it had essentially none - is disappearing fast. SHORT is down H$2.75, or 9%, so same story. BSTRD is down $2, or about 3%, which feels like noise, but does continue the downward trend. One thing I forgot is that it's quite long, 2 1/2 hours, which limits the number of screenings. But it's on so many screens I don't think that is going to matter. So no change in any positions.

Update Sunday afternoon: Everything went exactly as I predicted, but even more so. POSTG did, in fact, completely bomb, dropping H$1.42 to H$7.56. You know a movie is going to evaporate from the public consciousness when it adjusts down, and it's already below H$10. SHORT dropped even more, although that was only because it had farther to go; it adjusted to H$17, down H$11. People are going to start wondering if it will even make back its production budget. BSTRD, on the other hand, did exceptionally well, adjusting up H$30 to H$101. However, there was a significant dropoff from Friday to Saturday for QT's latest, so the crowds aren't as excited about this as the critics. I'm going to hold it short until delist.

August 14, 2009: Bandslam, Ponyo, Time Traveler's Wife, The Goods, District 9

August in Hollywood used to be like France: nothing happened, people went on vacation. August was a dumping ground for bad movies. All of the summer blockbusters had been released, multiplexes were crowded, kids starting going back to school. Studios felt that there wasn't much in the way of opportunities to make money, so they released movies with little or no potential that they just wanted to clear out of their inventory.

But then the smart studios started counterprogramming against the bad movies. If every other movie being released in a certain month is probably bad, you can attract attention by releasing a good one. Now things are a little more balanced. Studios also have many more options for releasing bad movies - they can send them to cable, straight to video, or do a very limited release. Digital projection helps in this regard. One of the major costs for releasing a movie is making the actual prints that are shown in theaters. But digital projection does not require making a print, so the studio can just push a button, release a movie on 1,000 screens, make at least some money, and hope that enough people like it to make more money on the DVD sales.

We've got five very different movies this weekend; a romantic drama, an animated movie from Japan, a cheesy tween movie, a sci-fi action/thriller, and a low-budget comedy. Some of them are even promising.

Starting with the movie I am least likely to see, we have some cute underage performers in "Bandslam" (BSLAM), about some high school students in a band. I suspect there is malicious gossip involved. About the only thing that caught my eye is that David Bowie is in the cast. Why? I have no idea, and I seriously doubt that I will find out. The trailer seems mostly harmless, with a couple of good lines. There must be an audience out there for this. The stock is all the way up to H$19, so some studio executive is praying that they can break even on a what, $10 million budget? Strike price is H$10, which is just not right. H$19 predicts a $7 million opening weekend. The call (BSLCA) is, somewhat surprisingly, above H$1, although not by much. The put (BSLPU) is somewhat more realistically above H$3. It's opening on 2,121 screens, not a real wide release, but decent. It is - and this is a pleasant surprise - at 80% on rottentomatoes.com. So maybe it's actually a good movie. I think the stock will probably open to somewhere between $7 and $9 million, just because it looks it is competently directed, even if the plot, etc., feels rather stale.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Bandslam' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

In the very small "foreign animated" niche, Walt Disney is releasing "Ponyo" (PONYO) from Hayao Miyazaki. I don't think I've ever seen one of his films (a major gap in my film knowledge, but one of several), but his reputation is that of a genius, so this will have a devoted following. It's at 95% on rottentomatoes.com, which is actually what I expect. There are no options, and the stock is around H$7. Buy and hold - this will probably adjust above the delist. It could easily clear $3 million.

Stock: Long

'Ponyo' Theatrical Trailer 2 @ Yahoo! Video

In the very broad "romantic drama" segment of the market, we have "The Time Traveler's Wife," (TTRWF), about a woman who marries a guy who travels randomly through time, showing up and disappearing at unpredictable moments. Certainly is an interesting concept. It stars Eric Bana and Rachel McAdams, both of whom have been flying just under the radar, waiting for the right role to turn them from somewhat well-known to really famous. This might do it for both of them. The stock is at H$53, down today, but very near its high. It has, however, been incredibly volatile. Strike price is nicely set at H$20, just right. The call (TTWCA) is above the IPO price, almost H$3. The put (TTWPU) is around the same price, although neither is a strong indicator. It's opening on just shy of 3,000 screens, so at least the studio believes in it. Only 37% of the RT critics like it so far, which is not encouraging. Certainly not a guy movie, but women might like it. But last weekend, it took Meryl Streep to pull in $20 million for a chick flick. I don't think there will be many surprises on the upside for this one. $17-19 million is my prediction.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Time Travelers Wife' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

In the somewhat narrower raunchy, politically incorrect comedy category, we have "The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard" (TGDRS). Jeremy Piven plays a used-car salesman who has to sell 211 cars over the 4th of July weekend to save a dealership. The stock has been rocketing up over about the last 3 months, although it's a shade off the high, to H$20. It's up today, a good sign. The strike price is the low low low H$5, so we can all benefit from some fortuitous pricing. It should beat that easily. The rest of the traders interested in these options understand that, with the call (TGDCA) well above H$3, and the put (TGDPU) sinking fast. It's only being released on 1,800 screens, but the expectations are so low that that's fine. Critics are hating this movie, with only a 12% fresh rating. Too bad for them! This looks like a hilariously cheesy, tasteless movie. I love the trailer, I think it's hysterical. Looks like it is designed to offend anyone with good taste but not a wicked sense of the absurd. I even watched the red-band trailer. It pushes the boundaries of taste, that's for sure, but it's also quite funny. Sounds like a cult classic in the making. Jeremy Piven's line "These people are excited about the savings" just cracks me up. I think $8 million is likely, maybe more.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard' Trailer

A few months ago, I started noticing ads on bus benches around LA that announced that the benches were for "humans only," and not aliens. They barely referenced "District 9" (DIST9). I was impressed by the advertising for a movie I hadn't heard of. Now I have, and boy have I heard of it. The buzz around this movie is world-beating. Harry Knowles, Lord God Emperor of fanboys, calls it "the most accomplished, provocative and intelligent science fiction I've seen in this new century." I find him a tad tedious, but the man does know his movies. The stock has followed almost exactly the same trajectory over the last six months as The Goods, but has reached a much higher level, and is currently just below H$90. It's down today, but that's probably profit-taking from people who have made 100% or better returns in the last three months, which could be quite a few people. The strike price is H$30 - good job, D.Mac - but the call (DS9CA) is above H$6. That means rabid excitement on the trading floor. The put (DS9PU) is below the IPO, but not by much, so someone isn't buying the hype. I, however, am. It's on 3,049 screens, and at 95% among the critics. It's produced by Peter Jackson. Rarely do the stars align like this. I think $35 million this weekend is entirely possible, even with an R rating. I wouldn't be surprised at $40+.

Stock: Way, way long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Uninvited' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Update Friday morning: DIST9 is up H$5, a good sign. TTRWF is up H$1.90, which I think is mostly noise, and not all that significant. BSLAM is down H$0.52, which really is noise. TGDRS is down H$3, not a good sign, but that's still about a $7 million opening weekend. I'm still optimistic, and the derivatives are still a good bet. PONYO is up H$1.30, and still has nowhere to go but up. So no changes on my predictions.

Update Sunday night: I was mostly right, or close, except for BSLAM, which turned out to be a total bomb, clearing just over $2 million this weekend. But I did get the options right on that one. DIST9 opened up, although not in the stratosphere, at $37 million, PONYO came in just about on target with $3.5 million, and TTRWF came in right where I expected it, $19 million, although that was slightly below the market's prediction. Finally, TGDRS did in fact drop as predicted by the Friday morning action, with just over $5 million, below my apparently optimistic projection. That was only a H$3 drop, so no big deal, but I did let my reaction carry me away a tad. All in all a good weekend. I am going to keep all of my positions, instead of just shorting everything, except BSLAM, which I am shorting with a vengeance. I think DIST9, TGDRS, and PONYO will delist above the adjusts, while I think TTRWF will drop slightly below. We will see in four weeks!

Housekeeping: Name Change on HSX

This is a bit of housekeeping: I changed my username on HSX today. I've been using "Halbs1" for almost my entire HSX career, but my nom de Internet on every other site is JohnTEQP (hence the name of this blog). I can't remember exactly why I chose Halbs1; I think I had registered JohnTEQP, but somehow didn't keep it, so I had to reregister under Halbs1. But with the change of database engine and the switch to version 4 of HSX, they are offering players the opportunity to change their usernames. So I switched it to JohnTEQP, to be consistent with my name on other sites. I've been playing HSX for about 11 years, so this has been a long time coming.

HSX: Week of August 7, 2009

This is my second post on this blog! We have more interesting movies, both artistically and in terms of box office, this weekend. I have now added trailers!

Let's get the cheesy horror movie out of the way first. This week it's called "A Perfect Getaway (PGETA)," and features beautiful scenery as well as beautiful people - it's set in Hawaii. It's a decent B or C list cast (Milla Jovovich, Steve Zahn). Could be fun. I have no idea, since I don't watch these kinds of movies. The stock is right near the high after moving up quite well over the last couple of months. It's still only at H$22.75. Boxofficemojo.com is estimating the theater counts at about 2,000 (precise counts are updated Thursday afternoons), which sounds right. It's at 50% on rottentomatoes.com, with only 10 reviews. The critics are saying what I expected; it's OK, don't expect much and you won't be surprised. Strike price is H$10. That feels a little on the high side, but $5 would have been laughably low, so that works. With the stock predicting about an opening weekend of around $8 million, the options are not hard to figure out. The call, of course, is down to about H$1 (PGECA), while the put is at almost H$3 (PGEPU). I don't think this will bomb, but I would be surprised if it sees box office above $9 million.

Stock: Long

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Perfect Getaway' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

We also have another blockbuster wannabe, General Infantry Joseph, or G.I. Joe (GIJOE), as is his nom de plaything. This certainly looks like fun. I have to admit that I have watched the trailer several times. It's efficient, well-edited, and strongly suggests that the action is very well photographed, with lots of great slo-mo scenes. Looks great! Doesn't sound so wonderful - this may be one of the few trailers in which the dialogue consists almost entirely of action-adventure cliches:

"The mission is a go!"

"I want in."

"A team is being assembled."

"I want the warheads ready to launch in one hour."

"This has just begun."

Dennis Quaid plays General Hawk. Of course he plays "General Hawk." He's not going to be playing "Colonel Pigeon." Channing Tatum is also in it, apparently playing Mr. Joe himself. The stock has been extremely volatile, crashing badly in the last couple of months, although it has regained some momentum of late. It's at H$144, which predicts an opening weekend of about $53. HSX positioned the strike price a little better than it did for PGETA. The options, interestingly, are almost exactly mirror opposites of each other, which is highly unusual. The call (GIJCA) is above H$4, as is the put (GIJPU). Critics are taking it for what it's worth - eye candy, with enough substance and plot not to insult the intelligence of the average teenager. It's at 75% on rottentomatoes, with 16 critics. I've heard rumors that it isn't been screened for critics, which would not be a great sign, but it looks like there are some who got to see it somehow. Critics aren't really going to matter much. The LA Times pointed out that Paramount is marketing this very heavily to "middle America," i.e. guys in the heartland who watch NASCAR. It's a patriotic thing. I'm going to assume that they know what they're doing. It's going out on oodles of screens, roughly 3,500. It feels odd to write this, but a $50 million opening weekend is almost diminished expectations. It's certainly nothing like what Transformers 2 did. The gadgets look cool, the men are buff, the women are hot, and the good guys win. What more do you need?

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Note: I reversed positions on Friday morning, so my positions are now this:
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

G.I. JOE trailer in HD

And now we come to art. Finally, a movie about a women who is a spy! Well, Julia Child was a spy (she worked in the Office of Strategic Services, predecessor of the CIA, in WWII), but she was, of course, famous as the woman who introduced America to French cuisine. Like they say, it's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it . . .

Julie and Julia (JULIE) is one of the best examples of counterprogramming in a long time. Talk about a chick flick. It stars the queen of modern cinema, Meryl Streep, and one of the up-and-coming princesses, Amy Adams. The one problem is that it is directed by Nora Ephron, who is one of my least-favorite directors, in part because I think she completely botched Bewitched. Nicole Kidman as a silly wimp? That was just so wrong. Well, here's hoping she gets this one right. The stock has been on a tear, and today is at H$56, just down from its high. Teenage boys won't be interested in this, but women of a certain age certainly will. Options are nicely positioned, with a strike price of H$20. The call (JULCA) is doing well at $H2.52 and a half, but that's down almost H$1. So some optimism has faded a bit. The put (JULPU) is above H$3, so that H$20 strike price is looking endangered. Critics are moderately excited, with 64% giving it a fresh rating,l although none are wildly enthusiastic. I'm expecting a solid, comfortable movie, and that's what the critics are telling me. It will probably be on about 2,500 screens, easily enough for the non-G.I. Joe fans to see it any time they want.

Easily the best thing about this movie is that the marketing is a no-brainer. Dozens of action-adventure and horror movies are out there in the culture, with more and more being released every month. But there is and will be only one movie about a woman cooking every one of Julia Child's 524 recipes, and that movie stars Meryl Streep, Stanley Tucci, and Amy Adams. Even if I think Nora Ephron could use some help in the movie-magic department, her heart's in the right place. Sometimes passion makes up for skill. Julia Child is a little like Walter Cronkite and, in a weird way, Michael Jackson - a creature of television, fortunate enough to come along when it was still possible to be on TV and be one of a kind. She was 6' 2". She towered over most men. I don't think she'll tower over the men this weekend, but I expect some pleasant surprises. $25 million might be a bit much, but $22-23 sounds right.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Julie and Julia' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Update Friday morning: All three are down today, and they are down by enough to make me question my optimism. I am reversing position on G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, because I don't think Cobra is going to rise all that well. The reviews are trickling in, despite the movie not being screened for critics, and they are pretty bad. To make its numbers, this movie would have to expand beyond the teenage boy fanbase, and I'm not sure it's going to do that.

However, I am staying long on the other two. I still think Julie and Julia is a unique cinematic proposition, and Perfect Getaway doesn't have a lot of room to sink. There's not a lot of downside potential, just because the stock is already fairly low, but there is still some upside potential. If it turns out to be a good opening weekend, the stock might adjust upwards nicely, but it probably won't adjust downwards all that much if it sinks. So there is more potential for losses shorting it.

Update Sunday night: Looks like my first instinct on GIJOE was the right one: It opened with $56 million, which means I would have done well with my original predictions. Lesson of the day is do not reverse positions unless the signal is really, really strong on Friday morning. I did, however, get JULIE right; it came in at $20.1 million, almost exactly the strike. I could have made more money if I had shorted the call on JULIE, but my rule is that I count it as correct if the position is right, even if the amount is off. PGETA didn't even meet its very low expectations, but I got the options right. So I got 5 out of 9 this weekend, but I missed the big one, which was GIJOE.