August 13th, 2010: Scott Pilgrim Eats, Prays, and Loves the Expendables

We have three very different movies opening on this Friday the 13th.

First up is The Expendables (XPNDB), just about the purest example of an action movie we've seen in a while. Absolutely no pretense here: this is about tough guys, fists, knives, guns and explosions. Plus the occasional damsel in distress and snarky put-down. Stock has been extremely volatile, currently resting at H$85, up 50 cents for the day, but down from a high of H$112. No gently sloping bell curve here, the chart looks like an EKG. The strike price for the options is H$25, which predicts a stock price of about H$67. So that seems low. Call is at H$5 and climbing, put is below a buck. It's going out on 3,200 screens. Critics aren't very excited, with only 44% on rottentomatoes.com, but that's not a surprise. No Blockbuster Warrant, probably because there isn't much time until the BWs delist. It's old-fashioned, but I'm sure it will have a certain appeal. Needs H$31.5 to meet the stock price. I'm optimistic, but I am going to keep an eye on this tomorrow.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Julia Roberts is back in a starring role in a movie that may or may not be a romantic comedy. It sure looks romantic, but I'm not sure it's a comedy. Eat Pray Love (ETPLV) is based on a book that neither I, nor, I suspect, many men have read. But I'm sure it's wonderful. I have no problems whatsoever with women's literature focusing on relationships, because relationships are very important. This stock has been climbing quite steadily. It's at H$62 today, but a bit, but not far from the high of H$66. Strike price is again H$25, which is just right. The call is just above H$2, while the put is closing in on H$3.50. Going out on 3,000 or so screens. Critics aren't very excited with it, just 42% giving their approval on RT. This movie is an interesting contrast with XPNDB: one features an ensemble cast, and is about as macho and testosterone driven as possible; one is about as woman-centric as possible, and stars just one woman. Not a coincidence that they are opening opposite each other. The one thing that confuses me is why a guy (Ryan Murphy) was chosen to direct this. I'm sure he's good, but this feels like it probably could have benefited from a woman's touch. Either way, I'm not betting against Julia Roberts, a huge bestseller, lots of gorgeous scenery, and some nice men being nice to a movie star. Critics are complaining that it's self-indulgent. I think that's the point.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Aiming, of course, at a completely different crowd, is Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, based on a comic I've never heard of. Michael Cera, who is defying all kinds of conventional wisdom by maintaining his status as a movie star, is Scott Pilgrim. He falls in love with a girl, but then has to battle her seven evil ex-boyfriends. Great premise, that's for damn sure. It's ridiculously stylized, with great graphics and CGI. Stock (SPILG) is not doing that well, crashing the last couple of weeks, down to H$54, from a high of H$81. Sounds like the hype got the better of a few people. Strike price is H$25, which doesn't seem very realistic any more. It's going out on 2,800 screens, a marginally more conservative release than the other two, but actually somewhat optimistic, given that it has sort of an indie feel. Critics are very impressed, with a 76% rating on RT. I am betting against the market, because at the end of the day, one thing matters above all else when making these predictions: is it a good movie?

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

Update Sunday night: I took a risk on Scott Pilgrim, partially because it was getting great reviews, partially because I like the idea, and partially just for the hell of it. Now that this game is back to being irrelevant, what with that whole overreaction by the MPAA and their friends in Congress, I wanted to take a position and stick with it just for the hell of it. So that's now out of my system. At least I hope. The Expendables did as the market predicted, coming in well above the strike price, at $35 million, adjusting up to H$94. Nicely done, Mr. Stallone. Julia Roberts came in just under the strike price, but almost exactly at the stock price, earning $23 million, and adjusting up a grand total of 32 cents. Nicely done, HSX traders. Scott Pilgrim did better than most arthouse flicks, but not as well as the other movies this weekend, bringing in a grand total of $10.5 million, and adjusting down by H$21, from H$49 to H$28. Still, I'll hold that long to delist. Also going long to delist on Julia, but shorting Sly and Co., because that looks like a flash in the pan.

May 27, 2010: Sex and the City 2

Sex and the City 2 (SATC2) is opening tomorrow, Thursday, so this post is just about that movie.

I'm actually not a bad person to be thinking about this movie, despite being a straight white male who doesn't have a girlfriend who desperately wants to see this. I did see the first movie, on opening night no less, with several friends. I liked it, and appreciated the franchise. I get it. I'm somewhat proud of the fact that I understand the appeal despite the fact that I do not find Sarah Jessica Parker all that appealing. I do have a lot respect for the fact that she's done wonders with this concept. And my sister absolutely loves SATC, and she's got very good taste.

For today, however, our concern is tomorrow. The stock is at H$146, down H$3 today, and down from a high of H$165. The adjust formula is complicated (previous B.O. + (2.2 x Fri-Mon)), both because of the Thursday opening, and the holiday weekend. Assuming a Thursday total of about $5 million, that stock price predicts a Friday-Monday total of $63 million. That's a chunk of change. The call (SEX2CA) is at H$4 and change, so there is a certain amount of optimism out there, while the put (SEX2PU) is above H$3. So there is a certain amount of pessimism, as well. The CX derivative is tanking, down from H$185 to H$155.

It's going out on about 3,500 screens, which translates to a PSA (per screen average) of $18,000. The original opened with $57 million, so the sequel would have to do better than the original. But the reviews are horrible - I would describe them as "savage," but I'm not sure that's harsh enough. It's at 15% on RT. I'm also deeply skeptical of the premise. Carrie and Big are married, and they're not that excited about it. And this is exciting why? The girls fly to Abu Dhabi for a good time. Is anyone besides me bothered by the fact that a movie called Sex and the City 2 takes place in the desert?

I know this is the female equivalent of an explosions-filled action adventure movie. But I also know that explosions-filled action adventure movies can totally bomb. This may be another milestone in the history of feminism: women can succeed as brilliantly as men. They can also fail as spectacularly as men.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

CX: Short

Update Thursday morning: SATC2 is down almost H$7 this morning. It may bounce back a buck or two by the time it halts (it's currently 7:45 AM Pacific), but that's a really bad sign. Maintaining all positions.

Update Monday night: I was right all the way around on this one. It cleared $37 million over the 4-day weekend, plus $14 million on Thursday. That's a solid $51 million, but the stock dropped from H$141 to H$95. Looks like the critics were right.

Inglorious Basterds and Some Other Movies

It's still August, and this week we have an odd mix: one dumping-ground something or other, a family movie, and a Quentin Tarantino movie, which of course is neither being dumped, nor is it a family movie.

The movie that is being released in August only because this is a time when movies that aren't going anywhere get released, is "Post Grad" (POSTG), starring Alexis Bledel, late of the Gilmore Girls, as a twenty-something who is trying to figure out what to do with her life post-college. I sympathize; it was a very torturous, extremely drawn-out process for me. But I also have no interest in this movie, which looks utterly generic, including the standard issue boy trouble. It's nice to see a woman in a leading role, but in the poster, she looks 13. The stock is at H$11, and sinking. The strike price is H$5, and even that is optimistic. The call (PSGCA) is at H$1.22, and I'm surprised it's that high. The put (PSGPU)is at H$2.78. And that's for a strike price of H$5. It's at 7% on rottentomatoes.com, and I don't care how many screens it's on.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Post Grad' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Robert Rodriguez returns to the big screen with another movie for kids, "Shorts" (SHORT). Rodriguez made a great, surreal kids movie with wonderful special effects once. It was called "Spy Kids," and it was a lot of fun. Then he made two sequels. The first sequel was not bad. The second sequel, the third movie in the series, was one of the worst movies I have ever seen, and it was clear that Rodriguez is one of the most self-centered, egotistical directors on the planet. Which is saying something. Shorts looks like it might be funny, but I just don't trust the man. The stock is at H$32, down from a recent high of H$42. The strike price is H$15, which was realistic a week ago, and absurd today, unless the stock picks up about 10 points tonight. It's on 3,105 screens, a fairly wide release, but it's also at 36% on rottentomatoes.com, and I don't see it picking up much of an audience outside of small children and their families. I have a feeling every kid over about 12 will think this is childish. Rather limits the potential box office.

Stock: Short

Call: Short

Put: Long

'Shorts' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Now we get to the good part. The last time Quentin Tarantino and Rodriguez released a movie on the same weekend, they did it together, the bizarre experiment of a double feature in one movie, "Grindhouse." I didn't see it, mostly because it bombed, but also because it sounded silly and an exercise in egotism. This time Rodriguez is releasing a candy-colored confection, and Tarantino is releasing another bloody extravaganza, "Inglorious Basterds" (BSTRD). Brad Pitt plays an American leading a group of Jews hunting Nazis in WWII. As seems to be the case with so many of QT's movies, it's generating both heat and criticism. The stock, naturally, has been quite volatile, trending mostly down recently, down from a high of H$115 to the current H$72. The strike price is H$25, a reasonable guess. The call (IBSCA) is H$5+, which seems a little out of whack. That predicts a $30 million opening weekend, or an adjust to about H$80. Rather doubtful. The put (IBSPU) is at the opposite end of the spectrum, at H$1. It's at 87% on RT, and that matters, since QT is such a critics' darling. It's on 3,165 screens, wide enough to make Harvey's Weinstein's dreams of a comeback come true. One fact stands out: Quentin Tarantino, at his best, is a damn good director.

Stock: Long

Call: Long

Put: Short

'Inglourious Basterds' Theatrical Trailer @ Yahoo! Video

Note: There is a fourth wide release this weekend, X Games 3d (XGM3d), but it's a documentary being released for one week only, so not much action in terms of HSX. It's at H$3 and change, with, of course, no options. Short.

Update Friday morning: POSTG is down H$1.69, which doesn't seem like much, but is about 16%, a significant drop. Looks like whatever buzz it had - and it had essentially none - is disappearing fast. SHORT is down H$2.75, or 9%, so same story. BSTRD is down $2, or about 3%, which feels like noise, but does continue the downward trend. One thing I forgot is that it's quite long, 2 1/2 hours, which limits the number of screenings. But it's on so many screens I don't think that is going to matter. So no change in any positions.

Update Sunday afternoon: Everything went exactly as I predicted, but even more so. POSTG did, in fact, completely bomb, dropping H$1.42 to H$7.56. You know a movie is going to evaporate from the public consciousness when it adjusts down, and it's already below H$10. SHORT dropped even more, although that was only because it had farther to go; it adjusted to H$17, down H$11. People are going to start wondering if it will even make back its production budget. BSTRD, on the other hand, did exceptionally well, adjusting up H$30 to H$101. However, there was a significant dropoff from Friday to Saturday for QT's latest, so the crowds aren't as excited about this as the critics. I'm going to hold it short until delist.