Quint, on Ain't It Cool News, looking forward to Woody Harrelson whacking some zombies.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Quote Of The Day
"Basically ZOMBIELAND is Woody Allen and John Wayne paired together in a buddy road trip zombie apocalypse comedy."
Thursday, September 24, 2009
September 25, 2009: Surrogates, Fame, Pandorum
Three simple one-word titled movies this weekend. HSX is experiencing technical difficulties as I write this, so I'm not sure I will be able to comment on how prices are changing today. Regardless, here we go. This week we see a continuation of last week's trend, i.e. movies that are suffering from a post-summer hangover. Not a great sign.
SURROGATES trailer in HD
Next up is a remake of a movie that went on to become a TV show and then a theater production that toured the country for years. So there's some brand awareness for Fame (FAME). The idea is certainly a known quantity; it's an excuse to see lots of hot young people gossiping, crying, fighting, flirting, and occasionally singing, dancing and having a great time being highly talented young people in New York. This stock has dropped as well, from H$45 to H$35. Strike price is H$15, not unreasonable. Call (FMECA) is at H$2 and change, while the put (FMEPU) is below H$2. It's going out on 3,000+ screens, and the studio (MGM) desperately needs a hit. But the reviews are savage, with only 25% on rottentomatoes.com. I found this tidbit interesting: the screenwriter has disavowed the movie. Things that make you say "Whoa!" Haven't heard that in a long time. In 1981, when the original came out, there weren't a lot of opportunities to see young people signing and dancing and gossiping. We don't have much lack of that these days.
First up, at least in terms of potential, is Surrogates (SUROG), a futuristic sci-fi movie about a world in which human beings interact with each other through surrogates, or robots. A terrorist wants them to reconnect through good old-fashioned human flesh. I think we've seen something like this before, at least vaguely. An allegedly utopian future which is actually dysfunctional, and robots are somehow the problem. Not high on my list. Bruce Willis stars in it, apparently because he didn't have anything better to do. Stock has dropped from a high of H$69 to the current H$51. It's opening on 2,700 screens, which is a good solid release, but not as wide as possible. There are only 2 reviews on rottentomatoes.com, which suggests that it has not been screened for critics. That's a tad surprising, and not good. The strike price is H$25 ,which is absurd for a stock with this recent history and this current price. Call (SRGCA) is H$1.22, and I am surprised it's that high, although that could be because trading is frozen. Put (SRGPU) is at H$3.56, and even that is cheap. Comingsoon.net predicts $22 million. I think that's a little high. but $20 is certainly possible. Maybe it's even a good movie. Maybe.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Long
SURROGATES trailer in HD
Next up is a remake of a movie that went on to become a TV show and then a theater production that toured the country for years. So there's some brand awareness for Fame (FAME). The idea is certainly a known quantity; it's an excuse to see lots of hot young people gossiping, crying, fighting, flirting, and occasionally singing, dancing and having a great time being highly talented young people in New York. This stock has dropped as well, from H$45 to H$35. Strike price is H$15, not unreasonable. Call (FMECA) is at H$2 and change, while the put (FMEPU) is below H$2. It's going out on 3,000+ screens, and the studio (MGM) desperately needs a hit. But the reviews are savage, with only 25% on rottentomatoes.com. I found this tidbit interesting: the screenwriter has disavowed the movie. Things that make you say "Whoa!" Haven't heard that in a long time. In 1981, when the original came out, there weren't a lot of opportunities to see young people signing and dancing and gossiping. We don't have much lack of that these days.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
(Video is not currently available, I'll post it when it is).
Finally, Pandorum (PNDRM) is another futuristic sci-fi thriller (I know, "futuristic sci-fi" is just about redundant) about two guys on a space ship. They make a discovery that "could threaten the existence of mankind." Of course they do. What other plot twists would even interest moviegoers these days? Once again, it's tanking, from H$30 to H$20. Strike price is H$10, and, again once again, what seemed reasonable three weeks ago is now ridiculous. It's not going to make $10 million this weekend. Traders have realized this; the call (PNDCA) is below a buck, while the put (PNDPU) is above H$3. It's on 2,400 screens this weekend, and I think many of those screens are going to be very empty. It's not being screened for critics, but that makes perfect sense for this one. There are no reviews on rottentomatoes.com. $6-$7 million.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
The September Slump continues, all three stocks adjusted down. SUROG did $15 million; not bad, but not good for a Bruce Willis action movie. FAME managed $10 million, barely avoiding the "bomb" territory, but also avoiding the "hit" territory. PNDRM did land squarely in bombsville, with a grand total of $4.4 million. I got almost all of my predictions right (8 out of 9!), I missed SUROG, but that only adjusted down H$5, so not a big miss. The one thing I did miss, which was not good, was actually adjusting my positions on HSX to match my predictions; I had gone long on all of these before, and was planning to change that after my analysis. But HSX had technical trouble, and I was called in to work on Thursday night, so I didn't have a chance to change. I worked until 1:00 am, and then slept in past 10, so I didn't get to short everything Friday morning. Gotta pay more attention to that alarm clock on Friday mornings.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
CX Derivatives on HSX
HSX is launching a new kind of security, CX Derivatives. CX stands for "Cantor Exchange," because HSX is owned by Cantor Fitzgerald, a British financial company. I'm very excited by this. I bought the max of all the CX Derivatives yesterday. Cost me about H$25 million. Good thing I have $H700 million cash! Also took about two hours, although I spent a fair amount of time watching trailers. So far I am making money on almost all of them.
What's very cool about this development is that it is a precursor to trading real money in derivatives through this Cantor Exchange. That would be great.
I particularly like the way HSX handled the timing of this announcement. They floated the IPOs of all these derivatives just a couple of weeks after all the Summer Blockbuster Warrants cashed out, and right after the Emmy Warrants cashed out, so there is a real demand in the market for derivatives right now, as well as a fair amount of free cash. This is also the beginning of the awards and holiday seasons, so there are lots of good options for investing in. I also noticed that they delisted all the Movie Studio Funds. I'm not sure why, apart from the fact they were really boring securities, but I suspect it was to free up cash for people to invest in these CX Derivatives. Good move, if that was the case.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Cloudy With A Chance Of Jennifer's Body Being An Informant or Love Happening
We have an interesting assortment of movies this weekend. No more summer blockbusters, but all solid possibilities for entertainment. There might even be an Oscar nomination in here somewhere.
First up is Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs (CWCMB), one of the best titles for a movie ever, based on a children's book of the same great name. It's animated, naturally in 3-D, as so many animated movies seem to be these days, and basically destined to attract lots and lots and lots of kids. Pancakes falling from the sky? How cool is that? Way cool, if you're 7. Still fun, even if you're 70. The stock is at H$72 today, up about H$2. That's down from a high of H$84, but many stocks are down from the highs they hit in August, so that's not surprising. The strike price is rather optimistically priced at H$30. That made sense when the stock was above H$80, not so much today. H$73 predicts an opening weekend of about $27. The call (CWCCA), not surprisingly, is not doing all that well, right at the IPO price. The put (CWCPU) is, on the other hand, doing quite well, aiming at H$4. It's opening on 3,119 screens. Critics are loving it, with an 88% fresh rating on rottentomatoes.com. I think we should be prepared for a nice surprise on the up side. "Up" made $68 million on its opening weekend. It had the Pixar brand going for it, but not quite as obvious a marketing hook. This looks like a seriously fun movie. I'm going with $30 million or more.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs in HD
Staying in the comedy genre, but this time with real actors playing real people, we have The Informant! (INFOR), complete with exclamation point. It's the true story of a guy named Mark Whitacre, who wanted to blow the whistle on his employer, Archer Daniels Midland, and how they were messing with various markets for various things made from corn. We know what happened (although I'm not going to tell you), so there isn't a lot of suspense in the plot. But how does a story about accounting gone bad turn into a comedy? There aren't a lot of directors out there who could pull this off, but if anyone can, it's Steven Soderbergh. Matt Damon looks perfectly cast. The stock is at $32, down H$2 today, and way, way down from a high of H$47. Another victim of hype and post-August retrenchment. I've been waiting for this movie, and might see it this weekend. H$32 suggests about a $12 million opening weekend. The strike price is above that, at H$15, but the call (INFCA) is holding up, above the IPO. The put (INFPU), however, is doing better, above H$3. It's opening on 2,505 screens, scoring well on rottentomatoes.com (67%), and has some good marketing hooks, including a famous director and well-respected actor. But still, it's not the easiest movie to sell. I'm looking for the sweet spot between the options, somewhere around $12-14 million.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
As usual, I don't know how to review this next one, because it's a horror movie, and I don't do horror movies. But Jennifer's Body (JBODY) stars Megan Fox, Hollywood's latest hottie, who is actually quite hot. Following the pattern of the week, this one has dropped precipitously in the last couple of weeks. It's currently around H$40, down from a high of H$57, but up slightly today. Ms. Fox plays a girl in high school who has been possessed by a demon, and is now a real man-eater - literally. It's gotten oh-so-much buzz, being the product of screenwriter Diablo Cody's imagination (Juno), but it's also on the receiving end of a backlash or two; it's only at 34% on rottentomatoes.com. The reviewer from horror.com, however, loved it, which has to be a good sign. It's on 2,701 screens, not the widest possible release, but solid. The call (JBOCA) has been on a roller coaster, as much as it could be one on in a week, way up, down, and now recovering to just over H$2. The put (JBOPU) has also had ups and downs, although it is strongly in the positive, roughly H$3 and a half. The plot sounds somewhat different, at least, which is sometimes enough to keep the buzz alive. Quite the alternative take on female empowerment! Besides, most of the reviewers are adults, and this is aimed very squarely at the pre-drinking age set. I'm thinking $15-17 million.
Finally, we have a romantic comedy that looks like it has some heavy elements of a romantic drama, Love Happens (LVHAP). I don't think I really know which it is, comedy or drama, and I'm really not that interested in finding out. I loved Aaron Eckhart in "Thank You For Smoking," and I think Jennifer Aniston is attractive, but I can't say that I have ever found any of her performances inspiring. That may be because I haven't seen that many of her performances, because I haven't noticed a movie of hers that really grabbed my attention. Neither does this one. I can feel the sentimentality just oozing through the screen as I watch the trailer. Once again, the stock is down from its recent high, from H$33 to H$25, down H$2. Low expectations are being lowered. Partially by the studio: it's only going out on 1,800 screens, so Universal is looking to contain their losses. Critics are not enthusiastic, with only 23% of those posting on rottentomatoes.com finding the bright side of death and love. Strike price is very reasonably set at H$10, but it doesn't look like it will make it that high. The call (LVHCA) is below a buck, while the put (LVHPU) is floating above the IPO, at H$2 and change. There's not a lot of room below $10 million for a major studio release featuring an allegedly A-list movie star, so let's guess $7-9 million. Going for the sweet spot again.
As usual, I don't know how to review this next one, because it's a horror movie, and I don't do horror movies. But Jennifer's Body (JBODY) stars Megan Fox, Hollywood's latest hottie, who is actually quite hot. Following the pattern of the week, this one has dropped precipitously in the last couple of weeks. It's currently around H$40, down from a high of H$57, but up slightly today. Ms. Fox plays a girl in high school who has been possessed by a demon, and is now a real man-eater - literally. It's gotten oh-so-much buzz, being the product of screenwriter Diablo Cody's imagination (Juno), but it's also on the receiving end of a backlash or two; it's only at 34% on rottentomatoes.com. The reviewer from horror.com, however, loved it, which has to be a good sign. It's on 2,701 screens, not the widest possible release, but solid. The call (JBOCA) has been on a roller coaster, as much as it could be one on in a week, way up, down, and now recovering to just over H$2. The put (JBOPU) has also had ups and downs, although it is strongly in the positive, roughly H$3 and a half. The plot sounds somewhat different, at least, which is sometimes enough to keep the buzz alive. Quite the alternative take on female empowerment! Besides, most of the reviewers are adults, and this is aimed very squarely at the pre-drinking age set. I'm thinking $15-17 million.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Finally, we have a romantic comedy that looks like it has some heavy elements of a romantic drama, Love Happens (LVHAP). I don't think I really know which it is, comedy or drama, and I'm really not that interested in finding out. I loved Aaron Eckhart in "Thank You For Smoking," and I think Jennifer Aniston is attractive, but I can't say that I have ever found any of her performances inspiring. That may be because I haven't seen that many of her performances, because I haven't noticed a movie of hers that really grabbed my attention. Neither does this one. I can feel the sentimentality just oozing through the screen as I watch the trailer. Once again, the stock is down from its recent high, from H$33 to H$25, down H$2. Low expectations are being lowered. Partially by the studio: it's only going out on 1,800 screens, so Universal is looking to contain their losses. Critics are not enthusiastic, with only 23% of those posting on rottentomatoes.com finding the bright side of death and love. Strike price is very reasonably set at H$10, but it doesn't look like it will make it that high. The call (LVHCA) is below a buck, while the put (LVHPU) is floating above the IPO, at H$2 and change. There's not a lot of room below $10 million for a major studio release featuring an allegedly A-list movie star, so let's guess $7-9 million. Going for the sweet spot again.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
In the interests of diversity and promoting independent and foreign film, and because I am intrigued by both of these movies, here are the trailers for two other movies opening this weekend, although in limited release. I don't predict opening weekend box office results for movies opening in limited release, because they don't adjust on HSX, but I like these two trailers. Bright Star is a period piece but about an intensely romantic life and story: John Keats, Romantic poet, and Fanny Brawne, the love of his very short life (he died at 25).
Dil Bole Hadippa, OTOH, is a Bollywood comedy about a woman who pretends to be a man to be able to play cricket. I had no idea cricket was so colorful or sexy.
Update Sunday night: Looks like I misread the market a bit; I thot that the slumps in stock prices among this week's openers was part of a general post-summer trend, but some of that drop-off was real, although there was only one real bomb this weekend, Jennifer's Body. Watch out for that backlash, Megan! CWCMB was the exception, opening at $30.1 million and adjusting up slightly. I got that one almost exactly right, although I was wrong about the call. Holding that long to delist. The market nailed the predictions for INFOR and LVHAP; both adjusted up less than a buck. We traders must be getting good at this or something. INFOR brought in $10 million, below my prediction. Got the call right, the put wrong on Mr. Soderbergh's latest. Again, long to delist. I got everything right about LVHAP; it brought in $8.4 million, almost exactly in the middle of my prediction, and I got both of the options right. Short to delist, because I don't think it's going to generate much buzz. Jennifer's Body, the aforementioned bomb, adjusted way down, bringing in a grand total of $6.8 million, and adjusting to H$18, down from H$37. I was completely wrong, and badly so.
Out of 12 predictions, 3 for each of 4 movies, I got 7 right and 5 wrong, but I missed the most important call of the weekend, for JBODY. Gotta remember NOT to trust my instincts when it comes to horror movies.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
9, I Can Do Bad All By Myself, Sorority Row, Whiteout
A mix of average and a little weirdness this week. Yesterday was 9/9/09, the perfect day to release a movie called "9." I forgot it was opening on Wednesday, sorry. So no predictions, although it looks interesting. Anyway, here's the trailer:
One trend of this week is that all the movies are off from their highs. I'm not sure if we are in a post-Labor Day Haze, or if we are in that lull between summer blockbusters and awards season movies.
One slight exception is Tyler Perry's "I Can Do Bad All By Myself" (ICDBA), which is at H$70, fairly close to its high of H$75. I'm not sure what it's about, but the trailer, short and simple as it is, is very funny. I try not to be against Tyler Perry. HSX has set the strike price at H$30, a shade on the high side, but not reasonable. The call (ICDCA) is doing well, almost at H$3, but the put (ICDPU) is almost exactly the same price. H$70 suggests an opening weekend around $25 million, so the call looks overpriced. But it's otherwise a slow weekend, so Perry's timing might be impeccable. His last movie, "Madea Goes To Jail," opened with $41 million. Like I said, I don't like betting against Tyler Perry.
There's yet another horror movie featuring hot young people being killed off; this time they're sorority sisters, hence "Sorority Row" (HSROW). As usual, I have no idea how to judge the appeal of these movies, so I am just going to go long, because H$27 feels cheap to me. Strike price is perfectly positioned at H$10. The call (SRWCA) isn't doing well, down slightly from the IPO, but the put (SRWPU) isn't all that great, either, at only H$1.35. The reviews are decent so far; it's at 63% on rottentomatoes.com, but that's only with 9 reviews. I'm going for the sweet spot between the two, right about $10 million. Someone isn't looking forward to this movie.
Update Friday morning: Sorority Row and Whiteout are both tanking. I have a new rule that I don't change positions on Friday morning unless a stock moves by more than 10%. But, since they are both doing that, I am reversing positions and shorting both.
One trend of this week is that all the movies are off from their highs. I'm not sure if we are in a post-Labor Day Haze, or if we are in that lull between summer blockbusters and awards season movies.
One slight exception is Tyler Perry's "I Can Do Bad All By Myself" (ICDBA), which is at H$70, fairly close to its high of H$75. I'm not sure what it's about, but the trailer, short and simple as it is, is very funny. I try not to be against Tyler Perry. HSX has set the strike price at H$30, a shade on the high side, but not reasonable. The call (ICDCA) is doing well, almost at H$3, but the put (ICDPU) is almost exactly the same price. H$70 suggests an opening weekend around $25 million, so the call looks overpriced. But it's otherwise a slow weekend, so Perry's timing might be impeccable. His last movie, "Madea Goes To Jail," opened with $41 million. Like I said, I don't like betting against Tyler Perry.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
There's yet another horror movie featuring hot young people being killed off; this time they're sorority sisters, hence "Sorority Row" (HSROW). As usual, I have no idea how to judge the appeal of these movies, so I am just going to go long, because H$27 feels cheap to me. Strike price is perfectly positioned at H$10. The call (SRWCA) isn't doing well, down slightly from the IPO, but the put (SRWPU) isn't all that great, either, at only H$1.35. The reviews are decent so far; it's at 63% on rottentomatoes.com, but that's only with 9 reviews. I'm going for the sweet spot between the two, right about $10 million. Someone isn't looking forward to this movie.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
Last and, unfortunately, quite possibly least, is "Whiteout," (WTOUT) a thriller/action something or other that takes in Antarctica. That's an interesting place to set a movie. Geography automatically lends a certain amount of drama, but also presents some problems, not least of which is a lack of visually interesting landscape, as suggested by the title. Also, it means that all of the characters are going to spend large chunks of screen time bundled up, i.e. hiding their figures, although apparently Kate Beckinsale, the star, takes a shower. Eye candy and all that. The stock is heading south, along with the plot (sorry, couldn't resist), down to H$25, from a high of H$43. Expectations are being lowered right along with the temperature. Strike price is H$10, again nice call by DMac. The call (WHOCA) is following the stock, below the IPO, with the put going in the opposite direction, coming close to H$3. I don't think this will open below $7 million, so I am going to go for the sweet spot again, just below $10 million for the weekend.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
Update Friday morning: Sorority Row and Whiteout are both tanking. I have a new rule that I don't change positions on Friday morning unless a stock moves by more than 10%. But, since they are both doing that, I am reversing positions and shorting both.
Update Monday morning: Well, I should have bet against Tyler Perry, or at least against the overpriced options; his movie debuted at $24 million, a solid opening, but nowhere near $30 million. The stock adjusted down, by about H$7, not a bad fall, but a drop that I missed. All the other openers adjusted down, as well. I got the stock and the call right on Sorority Row, but I was not pessimistic enough about, so I missed the put. Both that and Whiteout opened at about $5 million, way off the respective $10 strike prices. No sweet spots for any of them. But I got Whiteout exactly right, so I got 5 out of 9 this weekend. 9 the movie opened slightly below expectations, and I was wrong on my picks in my portfolio, but since I didn't write about those here, I am not counting them. So I was above .500 for the weekend, but not by much.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
September 4, 2009: Gamer, All About Steve, Extract
We're in a bit of a lull, summer and the season of blockbusters is mostly over, but fall, and awards season, hasn't started yet. Labor Day should be a decent movie weekend, but remember that the weekend includes Monday, so stocks will adjust then, and the adjust is 2.2 x weekend BO (Fri-Mon) , not 2.7 x weekend BO (Fri-Sun).
Another semi-indie comedy this week is "Extract" (EXTRC), starring Jason Bateman as some kind of guy working as a manger in a factory. I have to admit that I don't get the trailer, and I cannot see the appeal of this movie. This feels like it is being dumped. The stock hit a high of H$40, but is down to H$21 today. A drop of roughly 50% is really, really, really not good. Tanking. The strike price is H$15, again not unreasonable for a Jason Bateman movie opening over a four-day holiday weekend, but completely ludicrous with this stock price, which predicts a $10 million weekend if all stars align properly, and I doubt that they will. And the call (EXRCA) is at H$0.70, while the put (EXRPU) is closing in on H$4.
First up is "Gamer" (CGAME), about a futuristic society that has some ultraviolent videogame/gladiatorial combat hybrid. Apparently real people are controlled by videogamers. I'm having trouble getting excited, and so is the market. The stock is way down, from a high of H$59, to the current H$42. If that's not tanking, I don't know what is. The strike price is H$20, which actually makes a little bit of sense, given that the multiplier is 2.2. But the call (GAMCA) is below the IPO, while the put (GAMPU) is at H3.43, which predicts an opening weekend below $17 million. Looks like not a lot of people are playing this Game. We don't know what critics are thinking about it, because apparently it wasn't screened for critics.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Sandra Bullock is back in another romantic comedy, "All About Steve" (ABSTV). This time, however, instead of playing a highly competent but uptight and obnoxious yuppie, she's playing a woman who appears to be having a good old time in her own quirky little world. I like the trailer, and the stock has done reasonably well, but is down to H$31, from a high of H$42. Strike price is H$15, which is entirely plausible for a Sandra Bullock movie playing over a four-day holiday weekend. But the call (ABSCA) is down to H$2 and change, from above H$3, so it's sinking fast, while the put (ABSPU) is doing the exact opposite. And this is a major red flag: The current rating on rottentomatoes.com, with 34 reviews, is 0% fresh. Oh that's not good.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Another semi-indie comedy this week is "Extract" (EXTRC), starring Jason Bateman as some kind of guy working as a manger in a factory. I have to admit that I don't get the trailer, and I cannot see the appeal of this movie. This feels like it is being dumped. The stock hit a high of H$40, but is down to H$21 today. A drop of roughly 50% is really, really, really not good. Tanking. The strike price is H$15, again not unreasonable for a Jason Bateman movie opening over a four-day holiday weekend, but completely ludicrous with this stock price, which predicts a $10 million weekend if all stars align properly, and I doubt that they will. And the call (EXRCA) is at H$0.70, while the put (EXRPU) is closing in on H$4.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Update Friday morning: All three are still dropping, so no changes to positions.
Update Monday morning: Congrats to me, I got every prediction right. ABSTV came in at the higher end of expectations. HSX gives it $14 million for the weekend, a smidgen higher than either Variety or Boxofficemojo.com. I have a feeling this is DMac or someone having a little bit of fun: at $14 million, the price adjusted to H$30.80. That's down from $30.81 - an adjust of literally one cent. But it's an adjust down, so I am giving myself credit for calling it correctly. Gamer did, in fact, tank, taking in all of $11 million for the four day weekend, way, way off of the $20 strike price, while Extract performed like an indie comedy with no discernible appeal or plot, bombing and coming up with only $5 million, even farther from its $15 strike price.
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