First up is "Gamer" (CGAME), about a futuristic society that has some ultraviolent videogame/gladiatorial combat hybrid. Apparently real people are controlled by videogamers. I'm having trouble getting excited, and so is the market. The stock is way down, from a high of H$59, to the current H$42. If that's not tanking, I don't know what is. The strike price is H$20, which actually makes a little bit of sense, given that the multiplier is 2.2. But the call (GAMCA) is below the IPO, while the put (GAMPU) is at H3.43, which predicts an opening weekend below $17 million. Looks like not a lot of people are playing this Game. We don't know what critics are thinking about it, because apparently it wasn't screened for critics.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Sandra Bullock is back in another romantic comedy, "All About Steve" (ABSTV). This time, however, instead of playing a highly competent but uptight and obnoxious yuppie, she's playing a woman who appears to be having a good old time in her own quirky little world. I like the trailer, and the stock has done reasonably well, but is down to H$31, from a high of H$42. Strike price is H$15, which is entirely plausible for a Sandra Bullock movie playing over a four-day holiday weekend. But the call (ABSCA) is down to H$2 and change, from above H$3, so it's sinking fast, while the put (ABSPU) is doing the exact opposite. And this is a major red flag: The current rating on rottentomatoes.com, with 34 reviews, is 0% fresh. Oh that's not good.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Another semi-indie comedy this week is "Extract" (EXTRC), starring Jason Bateman as some kind of guy working as a manger in a factory. I have to admit that I don't get the trailer, and I cannot see the appeal of this movie. This feels like it is being dumped. The stock hit a high of H$40, but is down to H$21 today. A drop of roughly 50% is really, really, really not good. Tanking. The strike price is H$15, again not unreasonable for a Jason Bateman movie opening over a four-day holiday weekend, but completely ludicrous with this stock price, which predicts a $10 million weekend if all stars align properly, and I doubt that they will. And the call (EXRCA) is at H$0.70, while the put (EXRPU) is closing in on H$4.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Update Friday morning: All three are still dropping, so no changes to positions.
Update Monday morning: Congrats to me, I got every prediction right. ABSTV came in at the higher end of expectations. HSX gives it $14 million for the weekend, a smidgen higher than either Variety or Boxofficemojo.com. I have a feeling this is DMac or someone having a little bit of fun: at $14 million, the price adjusted to H$30.80. That's down from $30.81 - an adjust of literally one cent. But it's an adjust down, so I am giving myself credit for calling it correctly. Gamer did, in fact, tank, taking in all of $11 million for the four day weekend, way, way off of the $20 strike price, while Extract performed like an indie comedy with no discernible appeal or plot, bombing and coming up with only $5 million, even farther from its $15 strike price.
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