Thursday, October 29, 2009

October 28: Michael Jackson's This Is It

There's only one movie opening this week, and it opened on Wednesday: Michael Jackson's This Is It (JACKO). So I missed it, since today is Thursday. C'est la vie. It closed at H$123, which seems very high, since it is only going to be showing for two weeks (although that could be extended). Strike price is H$35, and the call (TIICA) was through the roof at close, at H$7.85, while the put (TIIPU) was sinking, down to H$1.22. I hope everyone had this long!

Note, however, that it has been dropping on Cantor Exchange. It was around $150 a few days ago, now it's back down to the HSX price. It's down $14 today, so reality may be setting in. Then again, it may be incredibly cheap.

Here's the trailer.

Update Tuesday morning: I had technical problems with my Internet connection over the weekend, so I couldn't update. I was decidedly undecided about This Is It. I had a feeling the stock was way overpriced, because of the hype surrounding him, but I wasn't sure, because this is such an unusual situation. Should have been a little more skeptical: it only did $21 million this weekend, nowhere near $35. I should have remembered the question I ask about movies with high prices: what are the odds that it will go up from here? The odds of it adjusting up were not as good as the odds of it adjusting down. Yet another lesson learned.

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