First up this week is "The Fourth Kind," (4KIND) about alien abductions. Looks good, could be interesting. Stock has been rocketing up, but is down H$3 today to H$30. Call (4KICA) is doing well against a H$10 strike price, although the put (4KIPU) is also doing reasonably well. It's going out on 2,450 screens, not a bad release. Critics are not impressed. I don't think there's a lot of room on the upside, but there's not much danger on the downside. Go with the flow.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Cameron Diaz stares in a thrilled called "The Box," (THBOX) about a box that does strange things. The stock is tanking. I like Cameron Diaz, but not enough to see her in a cheesy movie about some bizarre piece of squareness. The call (BOXCA) is optimistically above the IPO price, but the strike price is H$10, so the call, at H$2 and change, predicts an opening weekend around $12 million, while the stock, at H$21, is suggesting something more along the lines of $7-$8 million. The put (BOXPU) is more sensibly also above H$2. Critics are mixed, with 54% on rottentomatoes.com. I shorted this on CantorExchange.com several weeks ago. Guess what I suggest you do today.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Easily the biggest release this weekend, and one of the biggest of the year, is A Christmas Carol (CAROL), a Walt Disney production of a Robert Zemeckis film, starring Jim Carrey. Oh, and by the way, it's by the classic by some guy named Charles Dickens. I like Robert Zemeckis, I think he's made some great movies, but I also think he is getting carried away with the technology on this one. The trailer looks amazing, with a motion-captured Carrey flying around London. Looks amazing, feels cold. Doesn't feel charming, which is supposed to be the point of the story. Stock is up today, but has been sinking of late. I expect that trend to continue. The call (ACCCA) is close to H$3, but has been dropping. It's against a H$45 strike price. I think $30 is more reasonable. The put (ACCPU), meanwhile, is rising. Critics are sort of in favor of it, with a barely fresh (61%) rating on RT. I short this on Cantor, too. It's going out on a bazillion screens, but I don't feel the love.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
In a great counterprogramming move, we have The Men Who Stare At Goats (MGOAT), about a US Army program to train psychic spies. Supposedly it's based on a true story. I am very much looking forward to this. Not sure how many people are, because it's really not a conventional movie. But boy do we need that in this movie season. Stock is down slightly, but has been rising steadily, and is in the mid-H$30's. The call (MGOCA) is a shade optimistically trading around H$3, against a H$15 strike price. That's possible, if a little unlikely. Given the uncertainty of this movie, considering it fits in the oddball-black-comedy genre, the put (MGOPU) is also flying high, around H$2 and change. It's going out on 2,200 screens, a good release for a movie like this. Critics are, again, just barely feeling the love - it's just barely fresh, at 60% on RT. Sounds like it's not as great as it could be, but still entertaining. This is one time I am going with my sense of taste and hunger for a smart, funny movie.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Long
It was a good weekend here at TEQP.HSX - I called just about everything right. The only stock to come in above the strike price was 4KIND, which bagged $12 million. THBOX actually adjusted up, but it was so far down it didn't have much room to go down. I got the options right there. I got the stock wrong, but it only adjusted up by H$2, so it was basically a wash. MGOAT also adjust up, again just barely, by H$3. It missed the strike price, but not by much. I clearly made a mistake with my prediction for the put, because the call and put can't both be long. But I am going to go with my mistake. So I got the call wrong, and the put right. I nailed CAROL, within $1 million. I also nailed THBOX, even more precisely, but the margin of error is much greater with a stock like CAROL. I just don't think audiences are ready for a Christmas movie this far in advance of the holiday itself. Most people aren't even thinking of Thanksgiving yet! So I got 10 out of 12 right, and on the most important one, I bet against the market, and scored big. Like I said, a good weekend.
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