First up is Denzel Washington wandering a post-apocalypse wasteland in Book of Eli (BOELI). He's apparently trying to save the world by carrying a Bible somewhere. However, the trailer is mostly just him kicking ass in earth tones. Stock is at H$80, down from a high of H$97. This one has not suffered from lack of hype. The strike price is H$30, and the call (BOELCA) is at H$3 and some, but that's down for the day. The put (BOELPU) is above H$2, and also down today, but not by much. An H$30 strike price translates to H$81, almost exactly where it is right now. So the call is probably too optimistic, with a prediction of a stock price of H$90. The Cantor option on HSX is at H$89, but it has been extremely volatile, and that's also down from a high of H$97. It's going out on over 3,000 screens, which is good. But the reviews are not good, at only 44% on RT. I think Avatar will still be sucking up some action movie oxygen. On Cantor Exchange, it's at $86, down from a high of well over $100. None of the signs are good.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
CX on HSX: Short
Cantor: Short
Jackie Chan is back in action in The Spy Next Door (SPYND). I'm sure it's a standard Jackie Chan movie, but with little kids. You know what you get with Jackie, and it's usually at least OK. He's not a young man anymore, but he still brings it. Stock is at H$31, down from a high of H$35. Strike price is H$15, which may have made sense a while ago, but doesn't now. Call (SPYNCA) is right at the IPO price. Put (SPYNPU) is above IPO, which makes sense. It's going out on almost 3,000 screens, but the reviews are atrocious, at only 7% on RT. Boy, that's horrible. The CX option on HSX and the option on Cantor Exchange are both in the mid-30's. Reviews that savage mean that, quite simply, it sucks. Even little kids occasionally have good taste.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
CX on HSX: Short
Cantor: Short
Finally we have the most interesting - at least in terms of the backstory - movie coming out this weekend, The Lovely Bones (LVBON). Peter Jackson, he of LOTR fame, is trying his hand at serious drama. Based on a best-selling book by Alice Sebold, it tells the story of a 14-year old girl who is murdered, but doesn't quite make it to heaven. It's been in limited release for a month, and reviews have not been kind. The stock is at H$27, down from a high of H$60. Quite the drop. There are no options, since it's been out for several weeks. It's at 35% on RT, and many of the reviews are brutal. It's expanding from 57 screens to over 2,500. The CX derivative on HSX is still at H$40, but has dropped precipitously. On Cantor, it's in the mid-30s'. The book sold 15 million copies, so I think there is an audience for the movie still out there, even if it's not very good. The expectations are so low at this point that I think they will be easily beaten.
Stock: Long
CX on HSX: Short
Cantor: Long
Update Friday morning: Book of Eli is down a bit, not much, so my prediction looks good. Same with Spy Next Door and Lovely Bones. Jackie Chan's latest is down H$1.25. Not much, but it confirms the trend. Lovely Bones is up H$3.75, also confirming my suspicions that it will bounce back from terrible early reviews. Maintaining all positions.
A fairly good weekend for me, and mostly in line with expectations. I was off on BOELI, but not by much - it made $38 million, but the multiplier was 2.2, because of the holiday weekend, which I didn't take into account. It adjusted up H$3. SPYND brought in $13 million, so I was right about that one. Lovely Bones did much better than expected, with a take of $20 million. It adjusted way up, from H$31 to H$45. So I basically got two out of three right.
No comments:
Post a Comment