First up is Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson in "The Tooth Fairy" (TOFRY), about a hockey player who has to be a tooth fairy for a week. A literal fairy, complete with wings. We're in "high concept" territory here. I have a certain amount of respect for Mr. Johnson - he clearly has a sense of humor about himself, and he's taken Clint Eastwood's advice about a man knowing his limitations. I'm sure there is some entertainment value in this movie. The question for us today is how much. I'm guessing not a lot. The stock is at H$46, down from a high of H$54. Strike price is reasonably set at H$15, with the call (TOFRCA) at H$3 and change, and the put (TOFRPU) at H$2. A $15 million opening would translate to H$40.5, so the options and stock price are in alignment. The CX derivative on HSX is at H$52, and dropping. On Cantor, it's at $57, which feels too high. It's going out on as many screens as possible, at least 3,000, about what we expect. Critics are fairly savage, also what we expect - it's at 13% on rottentomatoes.com. I'm sure it will do a certain amount of business just by virtue of being a comedy. This kind of thing is very much a known quantity. I think the market has it about right. Time to aim for the sweet spot again, right around $15 million
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Short
Cantor: Short
The next movie featuring a guy with wings is "Legion" (LEGIN) in which Paul Bettany plays the Archangel Michael, trying to save humanity from God's wrath. The ancient Israelites got Noah; we get Paul Bettany. I think the trailer looks good, but we have roughly the same phenomenon as we do with Tooth Fairy - very much a known quantity. Stock is at H$43, down from a high of H$51. Strike price is, again, set reasonably at H$15, with the call (LEGICA), again, above H$3, the put (LEGIPU) around H$2, and the CX derivative above the stock, floating around $50. Theater count is a little lower than TOFRY, around 2,400. There are no reviews on RT, which suggests that it was not screened for critics, which is never a good sign. On Cantor, it's at $42; I have it shorted at $55. Not a good sign in the bunch, other than the call. I'm playing this the same way I played TOFRY (love that symbol): looking for the sweet spot.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Short
Cantor: Short
Then there's a Harrison Ford movie, Extreme Measures (XMEAS), in which he plays a cantankerous but brilliant doctor. I seem to recall when he was a major movie star. I don't recall him playing too many cheerful, happy-go-lucky types, but when he played Han Solo or Indiana Jones, it was always with an incredible sense of style. Not sure where that went. It sounds like a very inspiring story - a father with two kids with a genetic disorder raises money for this eccentric doctor. I'm sure it is. But the stock is in the low H$20's, and the strike price is H$10, with the call (XMEACA) just above H$2, and the put (XMEAPU) a smidgen higher, around H$2 and a half. The CX derivative is at around the same place. It's a tad higher on Cantor, around $27. It's going out on around 2,500 screens or so. Critics are brutal, with only 13% approving, and several noting what I suspected, which is that it's basically a TV movie-of-the-week that escaped the small screen because of the presence of Harrison Ford. Still, there's a market for this stuff. Looking for the sweet spot again.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
CS on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long
Update Sunday night: A mixed bag. I hit the sweet spot on TOFY, and came close on LEGIN. Missed XMEAS; it fell short by a bit. I guess Harrison Ford's star power really has evaporated. Really should not have held XMEAS long on Cantor. Overall, I split the predictions exactly in half - 7 right, 7 wrong.
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