First up is The Bounty Hunter (BOUNT), Gerard playing the title character, who has to hunt down his ex-wife, played by Jennifer Aniston. That's an interesting premise. The trailer is funny, and it has a certain appeal. Stock is in the mid-50's, down from a high of H$65. Strike price is H$20, with the call (BOUNCA) at H$3 and a half. The put (BOUNPU) is below the IPO price, about a buck and a half, so those signals are in sync. The reviews, however, are utterly savage, with an 8% - and that's a weak 8% - approval on RT. I'm not sure what's up with Cantor this weekend, it looks like the practice site is no longer working. Which is a bummer, because I was having a very good time on it. C'est la vie. I'm not a fan of either Butler or Aniston, and neither of them impresses me in the trailer.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Diary of a Wimpy Kid is based on the very popular books of the same name. I've never read them, but apparently kids eat them up. The stock (WIMPY) is at H$49, down H$3 this morning (Friday), never a good sign. Strike price is H$20, which seems reasonable, but the call (WIMPCA) is just above a buck, while the put (WIMPPU) is above H$3. Reviews are mixed, at 56% on RT. It's going out on 3,000 screens, a regular wide release. This is highly targeted, but narrowly targeted. Some kids movies are also appealing to adults - this doesn't sound like one of them.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Repo Men is a futuristic thriller about men who repossess body parts, the way repo men today repossess cars. That's a disturbing idea. I was intrigued at first, but recently I learned that it was shot at least 2 years ago, so it's been sitting on the shelf. Never, ever a good sign. Stock (REPOS) is at H$31, down almost H$3 today, and down from a high of H$46. Strike price is H$15, but the call (REPOCA) is at all of 70 cents, while the put (REPOPU) is at almost H$4. It's at only 22% on RT. It's going out on 2,500 screens. Not a good sign in the bunch.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Update Sunday night: This was one of those weeks when the market got a couple of things almost exactly right, so there wasn't a lot of excitement. WIMPY and BOUNT both came in at $21 million, WIMPY ahead by a few hundred thousand. Jennifer Aniston, her hair, and Gerard Butler and his chest adjusted down less than 50 cents. That's technically a win for me on the stock, but it's meaningless. It just means I don't have to worry about shorting it tonight in anticipation of the drop tomorrow morning. WIMPY adjusted up about H$8, slightly better, but not by much. It's got an A- rating on Yahoo! Movies, which is not bad. That score always has to be taken with a large grain of salt, but it's not a bad sign. So I'm going to go long to delist. REPOS was, in fact, a total bomb, only clearing $6 million. And to think I was once optimistic about that one. Good thing I caught it in time.
My record this week is 6 for 9, all three calls, the stock for BOUNT and REPOS, and the put for REPOS. Not a bad week for me, but also not a great week for movies. I have no plans to see any of these, and I think they will be forgotten in a year.
Note about The Ghostwriter. Roman Polanski's latest opened wide this weekend, which I didn't realize, and I forgot to include that in my post. Sorry, Mr. Polanski! I'll be sure to pay better attention next time. For the record, it had a good weekend, but only adjusted up 20 cents.
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