Wednesday, March 31, 2010

March 31, 2010

There is one movie opening today, The Last Song (LSONG). Miley Cyrus stars as a moody teen girl with issues about practicing the piano, relations with her father, and relations with a cute guy. All of this takes place around a house on the beach. It's based on a novel by Nicholas Sparks.

I'm sure it's quite moving for people in the target demographic, which does not include me. I like Miley Cyrus, she seems nice and somewhat wholesome and responsible. She definitely works hard. This looks like a good role for her, moving slightly out of her comfort zone, from constantly upbeat and perky teenager to talented but moody teenager. Stock is up H$3 and change today, a good sign. Strike price is H$15, which makes perfect sense. Call (LSONCA) is also up H$3 and change. Put (LSONPU), meanwhile, is on a downward trajectory, just barely above the IPO. Critics are pretty savage, with only a 6% approval rating on, but that's to be expected. Since it's opening on a Wednesday, the adjust formula is slightly different - Fri-Sun x 2.7, + previous box office. So the price includes Wednesday and Thursday. It's opening on lots and lots of screens. The CX derivative is at H$49, although that's down from the very high price of H$56.

The last Nicholas Sparks movie, Dear John, did quite well. We know exactly what we are going to get with this movie. Hey, teenager girls need their sugarcoated lessons in life as much as anyone.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
CX: Long

1 comment:

  1. I don't think LSONG will make 15 mil at the box office. I get the appeal of Miley and her last movie blew the socks off HSX's prediction, but this one was so undermarketed and I think the movie will underperform.