First up is The Expendables (XPNDB), just about the purest example of an action movie we've seen in a while. Absolutely no pretense here: this is about tough guys, fists, knives, guns and explosions. Plus the occasional damsel in distress and snarky put-down. Stock has been extremely volatile, currently resting at H$85, up 50 cents for the day, but down from a high of H$112. No gently sloping bell curve here, the chart looks like an EKG. The strike price for the options is H$25, which predicts a stock price of about H$67. So that seems low. Call is at H$5 and climbing, put is below a buck. It's going out on 3,200 screens. Critics aren't very excited, with only 44% on rottentomatoes.com, but that's not a surprise. No Blockbuster Warrant, probably because there isn't much time until the BWs delist. It's old-fashioned, but I'm sure it will have a certain appeal. Needs H$31.5 to meet the stock price. I'm optimistic, but I am going to keep an eye on this tomorrow.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Julia Roberts is back in a starring role in a movie that may or may not be a romantic comedy. It sure looks romantic, but I'm not sure it's a comedy. Eat Pray Love (ETPLV) is based on a book that neither I, nor, I suspect, many men have read. But I'm sure it's wonderful. I have no problems whatsoever with women's literature focusing on relationships, because relationships are very important. This stock has been climbing quite steadily. It's at H$62 today, but a bit, but not far from the high of H$66. Strike price is again H$25, which is just right. The call is just above H$2, while the put is closing in on H$3.50. Going out on 3,000 or so screens. Critics aren't very excited with it, just 42% giving their approval on RT. This movie is an interesting contrast with XPNDB: one features an ensemble cast, and is about as macho and testosterone driven as possible; one is about as woman-centric as possible, and stars just one woman. Not a coincidence that they are opening opposite each other. The one thing that confuses me is why a guy (Ryan Murphy) was chosen to direct this. I'm sure he's good, but this feels like it probably could have benefited from a woman's touch. Either way, I'm not betting against Julia Roberts, a huge bestseller, lots of gorgeous scenery, and some nice men being nice to a movie star. Critics are complaining that it's self-indulgent. I think that's the point.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Aiming, of course, at a completely different crowd, is Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, based on a comic I've never heard of. Michael Cera, who is defying all kinds of conventional wisdom by maintaining his status as a movie star, is Scott Pilgrim. He falls in love with a girl, but then has to battle her seven evil ex-boyfriends. Great premise, that's for damn sure. It's ridiculously stylized, with great graphics and CGI. Stock (SPILG) is not doing that well, crashing the last couple of weeks, down to H$54, from a high of H$81. Sounds like the hype got the better of a few people. Strike price is H$25, which doesn't seem very realistic any more. It's going out on 2,800 screens, a marginally more conservative release than the other two, but actually somewhat optimistic, given that it has sort of an indie feel. Critics are very impressed, with a 76% rating on RT. I am betting against the market, because at the end of the day, one thing matters above all else when making these predictions: is it a good movie?
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
Update Sunday night: I took a risk on Scott Pilgrim, partially because it was getting great reviews, partially because I like the idea, and partially just for the hell of it. Now that this game is back to being irrelevant, what with that whole overreaction by the MPAA and their friends in Congress, I wanted to take a position and stick with it just for the hell of it. So that's now out of my system. At least I hope. The Expendables did as the market predicted, coming in well above the strike price, at $35 million, adjusting up to H$94. Nicely done, Mr. Stallone. Julia Roberts came in just under the strike price, but almost exactly at the stock price, earning $23 million, and adjusting up a grand total of 32 cents. Nicely done, HSX traders. Scott Pilgrim did better than most arthouse flicks, but not as well as the other movies this weekend, bringing in a grand total of $10.5 million, and adjusting down by H$21, from H$49 to H$28. Still, I'll hold that long to delist. Also going long to delist on Julia, but shorting Sly and Co., because that looks like a flash in the pan.
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