Thursday, November 12, 2009

November 13, 2009: Pirate Radio, 2012

Just two movies coming out wide this weekend, one big one, one small one.

The big one is 2012 (2012S, the S standing for "Sony," the studio that made it), even though it's still 2009. The Mayan calendar supposedly ends in 20012. Some people think that means that the world will end on December 21 of that year, although I find this rather doubtful, given that no other religion has this belief. The Mayans, who lived a few centuries ago, had a calendar that reached way into the future; 2012 was just the end of the cycle, like a speedometer in a car turning over. But apparently lots of people find comfort in the certainty of absolute doom. The trailer is decent, with John Cusack and Amanda Peet earning big paychecks by looking terrified. The stock has been extremely volatile, gyrating wildly over the last few months. It's currently at H$152, up for the day and not far from the high of H$166. That's an opening weekend of $56 million. It's going out on 3,000+ screens, or possibly 4,000+ screens. A lot, anyways. Critics are not impressed, as expected, with only 36% giving it a fresh rating on Strike price is H$60, which is a good price, but higher than the stock. Call (201CA) is above H$3, but that's down from almost H$5. The put (201PU), meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction, and is heading towards H$5. It's lower on than on HSX, which is not a good sign; it's trading around $135. I don't think it's going to be all that special.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

The small movie opening this weekend is Pirate Radio (PRADO), the true story of a group of rebel DJs who ran a radio station from a boat just off the coast of England in 1966. Personally, I preferred the original title, "The Boat That Rocked," although this one works, as well. I love the fact that it's a true story. The stock has been dropping, and is down to H$14. Strike price is at the bare minimum H$5, and the call (PADCA) is optimistically trading near H$3. The put (PADPU) is not far behind, at H$2 and a half. It's only going out on 900 screens, but you can bet that those are 900 well-chosen screens. Critics like it, although they aren't wildly enthusiastic, with 71% fresh on RT. It's trading at roughly the same price on But Baby Boomers cannot get enough of themselves, particularly when they are nostalgic about their youthful rebellion and the attendant soundtrack.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Wrong on all counts this weekend, as 2012 turned out to be a smash, and Pirate Radio sank like a rock (pun intended). I was investing strictly on my personal taste, not always a good idea. 2012 made $65 million, while PRADO made less than $3 million. I forgot that I find 6o's nostalgia incredibly stale. But it got a B+ from users on Yahoo! Movies, so I am going to hold it long to delist, working on the theory that older moviegoers - i.e., Baby Boomers - will hear good word of mouth, and will see it after the opening weekend. That's the hope.

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