First up is Armored (ARMRD), about an armored car heist. Always a fun topic! It's got a solid cast, including Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburn, although the director has the unfortunate name of Nimrod Antal. The stock has been moving up quite steadily, but dropped about a week ago. It hit H$35, and is currently at H$25 on HSX. On Cantor Exchange, it has had roughly the same tragectory. The CX derivative on HSX, on the other hand, has sunk like a stone in the last few days, and hasn't come back Strike price is H$10, and the call (ARMCA) is dropping, down below the IPO price. That makes sense. The put (ARMPU), meanwhile, is marching in the opposite direction, heading towards H$3. It's only going out on 1,900 screens, so it's not a very wide release. There's only one review on rottentomatoes.com. I'm not sure if that's because it's early (I'm writing this on Wednesday night), or because the studio doesn't plan on screening it. If it's the latter, watch out. There aren't a lot of good cheesy action movies out right now, with the possible exception of Zombieland, and that's already gone. Even if it's not that good, it should pull in at least $10 million this weekend.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long
Next up is Brothers (BRTHS). This one is a little more intense. It's about a pair of brothers, one of whom goes to Afghanistan. I'm going to end the description right there. It looks rather intense. Stock has been going up steadily, currently around H$20. The strike price is about as low as possible, H$5, with the call (BRHCA) optimistically trading above H$3, and the put (BRHPU) around H$2. This is interesting: The CX derivative on HSX is at H$18, but the stock on Cantor is at $33! That's a hell of a divergence. It's rolling out on 2,000 screens. It's only scoring 50% on RT. It's got a good cast, but the story seems like a downer, particularly with President Obama's decision to send another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The track record of war movies about Iraq or Afghanistan is not good. I would be surprised if it does more than $7 million.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Short
Finally, Robert De Niro stars in a quiet family drama as a widower reconnecting with his kids. This looks like quality. It's nice to see De Niro in a sober, simple movie. He deserves something like this. The title, Everybody's Fine (EBFIN) sounds like it both is and is not ironic. It's one of those things that you say sometimes because it's true, and sometimes because you hope it's true. The stock has been marching up, but is still only at about H$16. Mr. De Niro and friends are going under the radar. Except on Cantor, where the price is $27. Strike price is H$5 - not very high expectations for this week's releases! - with the call (EBFCA) doing reasonably well, and the put (EBFPU) tanking, as expected. The CX option on HSX is almost exactly in line with the stock, a good sign. It's the widest release this week, although it's only going out on 2,200 screens. It's at 57% on RT, a solid rating, if not great. It feels like a good holiday movie for people who want something without histrionics.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long
Update Monday morning: Well, I was wrong about all of the stocks, but not by much. Armored and Everybody's Fine turned out to be duds, while Brothers did slightly better than I expected. Apparently the weekend after Thanksgiving is a traditionally slow one, so studios tend to release weak movies this weekend. That's another thing I learned. It makes sense, tho, since the big Thanksgiving weekend movies are still popular, and taking up a lot of screens. Overall, I got 5 out of 15 calls right. But next weekend, things should be heating up quite a bit.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long
Next up is Brothers (BRTHS). This one is a little more intense. It's about a pair of brothers, one of whom goes to Afghanistan. I'm going to end the description right there. It looks rather intense. Stock has been going up steadily, currently around H$20. The strike price is about as low as possible, H$5, with the call (BRHCA) optimistically trading above H$3, and the put (BRHPU) around H$2. This is interesting: The CX derivative on HSX is at H$18, but the stock on Cantor is at $33! That's a hell of a divergence. It's rolling out on 2,000 screens. It's only scoring 50% on RT. It's got a good cast, but the story seems like a downer, particularly with President Obama's decision to send another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The track record of war movies about Iraq or Afghanistan is not good. I would be surprised if it does more than $7 million.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Short
Finally, Robert De Niro stars in a quiet family drama as a widower reconnecting with his kids. This looks like quality. It's nice to see De Niro in a sober, simple movie. He deserves something like this. The title, Everybody's Fine (EBFIN) sounds like it both is and is not ironic. It's one of those things that you say sometimes because it's true, and sometimes because you hope it's true. The stock has been marching up, but is still only at about H$16. Mr. De Niro and friends are going under the radar. Except on Cantor, where the price is $27. Strike price is H$5 - not very high expectations for this week's releases! - with the call (EBFCA) doing reasonably well, and the put (EBFPU) tanking, as expected. The CX option on HSX is almost exactly in line with the stock, a good sign. It's the widest release this week, although it's only going out on 2,200 screens. It's at 57% on RT, a solid rating, if not great. It feels like a good holiday movie for people who want something without histrionics.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short
CX on HSX: Long
Cantor: Long
Update Monday morning: Well, I was wrong about all of the stocks, but not by much. Armored and Everybody's Fine turned out to be duds, while Brothers did slightly better than I expected. Apparently the weekend after Thanksgiving is a traditionally slow one, so studios tend to release weak movies this weekend. That's another thing I learned. It makes sense, tho, since the big Thanksgiving weekend movies are still popular, and taking up a lot of screens. Overall, I got 5 out of 15 calls right. But next weekend, things should be heating up quite a bit.
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