Wednesday, September 29, 2010

October 1, 2010: Case 39, Let Me In, The Social Network

We have three movies opening this weekend, two horror movies and a movie about Facebook.

Renee Zellweger stars in Case 39 (CAS39), a horror movie about a case worker whose 39th case is a little girl who isn't quite as innocent as she seems. The trailer scares me, but since that isn't hard to do, that isn't saying much. I haven't heard much about this movie, haven't seen any marketing, but the stock is skyrocketing like I haven't seen in a long time. It's up several hundred percent in the last couple of months. THAT'S interesting. It's at H$12 and change on Friday morning. There aren't even options, that's how depressed the stock was until recently. RT score is 23%. So it looks like the studio had an opportunity to release it, so they grabbed it, hoping to make some money. I have a feeling it's had a great run, but the hype is peaking.
Stock: Short

Let Me In (LTRON) is a remake of a Swedish vampire movie called Let The Right One In, which apparently was quite successful. Halloween is right around the corner! This is not doing quite so well, and the stock is tanking, down to H$31. Strike price is H$15, which seems optimistic today, and the call (LTMNCA) is H$1.35. Put is at H$3.43. Critics are quite enthusiastic, with an 83% rating on RT. Now that some hype has been wiped out from the stock price, I see more potential on the upside than the downside. But I'm not optimistic that it's going to make the strike price.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Long

Then there's this little movie called The Social Network (SOCIL), about some dweeb who decided that he wanted to help people make friends. Such a good idea! We all know and love Facebook, don't we? But how many of us will love the movie about it? Stock rose quite steadily to the low-H$90's - high H$80's, which is where it is parked now. Strike price is nicely priced at H$30, and the call (SOCICA) has lots of friends, and H$3.43, while the put (SOCIPU) does not have quite as many friends, but is not doing too badly, either, at H$2.91. We have mixed signals here. Except from the critics, who are almost universally enthusiastic, raving and giving it a 97% rating on RT. This has the potential to be the kind of movie that feel like they have to see to be part of the cultural conversation.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Well, it wasn't a great weekend, either at the box office, or here at TEQP-HSX. The Social Network didn't soar quite as I expected, only picking up H$23 million, and adjusting down H$18. Case 39, the one movie I didn't think was going to do well, actually did marginally better than expected, with $5 million in the bank, and actually adjusted up a bit, to H$14. From the numbers being reported now, it did better than the other horror movie opening this weekend, Let Me In, which had a lot more hype. That only did about $5.3, and it adjusted down quite a bit, from H$30, to H$14, i.e. by more than half. Thank goodness I got the options right on that one, or I would have gotten everything wrong this weekend. This a humbling experience pretty much every week.

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