Gordon Gekko, star of Wall Street, is back, and Michael Douglas looks like he's having a heck of a good time. There are a couple of young people starring with him, Shia Labeouf and Carey Mulligan, presumably to make this movie more appealing to young people who are more familiar with them than Oliver Stone's late-80's movie. The hype around this movie was, of course, a bit much, and it has, appropriately, tanked in the last few weeks, down to H$68, from H$90. Strike price is dead on, at H$25. Call is doing quite well, at H$4 and change, while the put is tanking, down to H$1 and a half. But we have a problem here: movement on the options is strongly up, but momentum on the stock is down. Critics are mostly positive, with a 56% rating on RT. However, that's not quite a fresh rating. I'm not quite sure what the point is here, and if I am confused, it's a fair bet other people are, as well. Watching the trailer, I'm sensing a lot of drama, but I don't know where it's going. I'm going to wait to see if this is worth watching. I'm betting against the market, but that's where the real money is.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Rarely have I seen a stock tank as sharply as You Again (UAGAN). This is sad, because it's a mostly female cast, with some great actresses, including Sigourney Weaver and Jamie Lee Curtis. And the great Betty White. It went from H$52 to H$36 in a week. Wow, that's bad. Strike price was set at H$20, which made perfect sense a couple of weeks ago. Today, it's absurd. Call is below a buck, and the put is aiming at H$5. Critics are brutal, with a 17% rating. Calls are not hard on this one.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
One movie I wasn't anticipating, but showed up on my radar when I saw lots of posters for it at the mall, is Legends of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole. The title sounds faintly ridiculous to me, but apparently it's based on a famous children's book or books. The stock isn't doing all that well, down to H$52, from H$67. It looks terribly cliched to me. Also, how exactly are we supposed to tell owls apart? They don't have particularly expressive faces. But I'm sure there's lots of great aerial combat. I was also surprised that it's directed by Zack Snyder, who made 300. Strike price is H$20, which is dead on. Call is doing well, up H$3, while the put is below a buck. Critics are not very enthusiastic, with only a 50% rating on RT. Maybe I'm not in a good mood (which is entirely possible), but I'm betting against the market again. I just don't see the appeal.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long
Update Friday afternoon: It's past halt time, so this is irrelevant, except as a matter of record. I reversed position on Wall Street, because it was up H$4.50, which is a major move. I didn't have time to reverse positions on the options, which may be a bad mistake. I also have a feeling that there is more potential for loss on the upside than on the downside.
Update Sunday night: Well, damn. My original instinct on Wall Street was right: it opened at only $19 million, dropping H$20. But I was right about the other two, and I was right about the options for Wall Street, but only because I didn't have time to reverse positions. So I was right about 8 out of 9, but wrong about the biggest one. Which I was right about originally.
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