Thursday, September 2, 2010

September 3, 2010: Machete, Going the Distance

I missed predicting the opening for The American, because I was out of town. Oops! But there are still two movies left on which to opine. It's Labor Day weekend, but this doesn't feel like a great weekend for movies. Note: Because of the holiday, the adjusts will happen on Monday, and the multiplier will be 2.2, instead of 2.7. Doesn't change much, but always good to note that.

First up is Machete (MCHTE), from Robert Rodriguez, based on a trailer from that movie he did with Quentin Tarantino. Stock isn't doing that well, the price has dropped off a cliff, dropping from H$64 in late July to H$41 today. That is up from the low, but still, not a great sign. This is certainly Robriguez's bailiwick, cartoonish violence with a Mexican hero. Strike price was unfortunately set at H$20, which now looks somewhat on the wrong side of realistic. Call is, as expected, below the IPO price, while the put is way above the IPO. Critics are surprisingly positive, with a 69% rating on RT. The trailer is pretty much one long series of gunfights and explosions, but the ending is very funny. It's going out on 2,600 screens, not the widest release, but not a bad one either. Looks like the hype has been wrung out of the stock, and it looks like fun. Utterly formulaic, but fun. Rodriguez knows a thing or two about this kind of movie.
Stock: Long
Call: Short
Put: Long

Justin Long and Drew Barrymore star in Going the Distance (GDIST), a romcom about two people in a long distance relationship. I like both of them, I generally like romantic comedies, and I've even tried a long distance relationship (although it didn't work out), but this isn't grabbing me. Apparently many people are feeling the same - it has also dropped off a cliff, falling from H$45 to H$30. This one, however, doesn't seem to be recovering. Strike price was, again, optimistically set at H$15, and, again, that doesn't like it's going to happen. Call is sinking fast, while the put is, again, above H$3. Critics aren't very enthusiastic, with only a 38% rating on RT. It is going out on 3,000 screens, but that just provides a slight cushion.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

Update Monday night: A pretty good weekend. I was off on Machete, it only brought in $14 million, and adjusted down, to H$30, from H$37. Got the options right on that one, tho, although that wasn't hard. I did nail GDIST, only cleared $8 million - on a four-day weekend! - and adjusted down, from H$32 to H$18. I like Drew Barrymore, but I have the feeling she might need to do something a little riskier or at least more interesting than a romantic comedy with a thin premise. Overall, I got 5 out of 6 right.

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